(Source: China Petroleum News Center 2026-03-17)
The war between the United States and Israel continues to simmer, the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy fortress, continues to be restricted, and shipping risks have made the global energy market nervous. Affected by this, the international natural gas market has experienced a "roller coaster" market. How much impact will this storm in the Middle East have on my country's natural gas market?
The industry generally believes that the short-term impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on my country's gas market will be limited, and the basic domestic natural gas supply is stable. In the long term, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the energy security defense line to cope with challenges.
Strong wind and high waves
“From the perspective of supply and demand, the impact is not significant. The current impact is mainly reflected in gas price fluctuations.”Dong Xiucheng, Director of the Belt and Road Energy w88 and Development Research Center at the w88 casinoAnalysis shows that our country has established a diversified import pattern, and the Middle East is only one part of the puzzle. The fundamentals of resource supply are stable under short-term conflicts. Long-term uncertainty still depends on the duration of the conflict and the degree of restriction of the strait.
From the supply side, the import gap is basically controllable. Fu Chuan of the Natural Gas Research Institute of China Petroleum Planning Institute believes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz mainly affects my country’s LNG imports from Qatar. Most of the ships unloading in March had passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. In the past three months, my country’s Changmao LNG imported from Qatar accounted for a small proportion of my country’s apparent natural gas consumption. Stable supply can be maintained through the use of LNG storage tanks and gas storage. If it turns into a long-term conflict, the world will face the restructuring of resource flows, and global gas prices will enter a period of wide fluctuations. We will need to take multiple measures to make coordinated adjustments by increasing other long-term agreements, increasing domestic gas production, and increasing the supply of imported pipeline gas.
From the demand side, costs in the industrial sector may face some pressure. Fu Chuan believes that the impact of the current conflict on refining, metallurgy and other fields has initially emerged. If the conflict continues for a long time, the import of raw materials is blocked, shipping costs increase, and the aftermath of high international oil and gas prices is transmitted to the country, high gas-consuming industries such as ceramics and glass, as well as gas and electricity fields, may adjust gas consumption due to cost considerations. "The direct impact on people's lives is very limited." Wang Yafei, a natural gas analyst at Jinlianchuang International, analyzed that the conflict occurred during the transition period of my country's natural gas consumption from the peak season to the off-season. As urban fuel demand gradually decreases, the overall domestic natural gas demand will decrease.
From a price perspective, domestic gas prices will remain basically stable.Dong Xiuchengbelieves that my country’s imported LNG has a high proportion of medium and long-term agreements, and the price formula has effectively hedged short-term violent fluctuations. The spot procurement ratio has been controlled within a reasonable range, effectively isolating the irrational speculation in the international spot market. At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of domestically produced gas and the deepening of diversified import strategies, the transmission effect of international gas price fluctuations on domestic end users is gradually decreasing. "Overall, domestic gas prices will remain basically stable and will not fluctuate significantly, which provides stable expectations for downstream industries."Dong Xiuchengrepresents. At the same time, residential gas consumption is protected by policy in my country’s gas price system and will not fluctuate significantly with spot market prices.
Stable chassis
Faced with strong external winds and waves, my country holds four key "trump cards" to ensure its natural gas supply.The first card is a sufficient and complete gas storage facility. Fu Chuan said that as the gas consumption gradually enters the off-season, short-term impacts can basically be dealt with by flexibly adjusting the injection and production rhythm.
The second card is the continued growth of domestic gas supply. my country has achieved tens of billions of cubic meters of natural gas production for nine consecutive years. Guo Haitao, director of the Institute of Energy Economics and Finance at China University of Petroleum (Beijing), believes that the growth rate of natural gas consumption has slowed down, and the domestic natural gas market is still likely to continue the loose supply and demand pattern this year. In addition, the production of major gas areas such as the Sichuan Basin and Tarim Basin continues to grow, and unconventional gas has achieved historic breakthroughs, providing strong confidence to ensure supply.
The third card is the diversified import pipeline gas channel. Unlike maritime transportation, onshore pipeline entities are not affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and have strong gas supply stability.
The fourth card is a vast overseas resource pool. China has signed long-term LNG agreements with Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States and other countries, and is deeply involved in the exploration and development projects of these countries. In addition,Dong XiuchengNoted that many countries around the world are expanding their LNG export capabilities, and the international market is well supplied.
Let’s see tomorrow
How long will the gas market shock last?Fu Chuan believes that the conflict will last about 1 to 3 months, with a high probability of falling into a stalemate. The Strait of Hormuz may also maintain a semi-blockade state after it is unblocked. Wang Yafei analyzed that due to the damage to the facilities and the restart process, even if Qatar’s energy facilities decide to restart, it will take 2 weeks to recover and another 2 weeks to reach full capacity.
Many experts said that the market cannot hope that risks will dissipate instantly, but must be prepared to deal with challenges in different time spans from the mid- to long-term, and strengthen the energy security defense line from the three dimensions of production increase, channel, and transformation.
Unswervingly promote the increase of domestic reserves and production, and consolidate the "ballast stone" to ensure supply. Fu Chuan said that we must continue to increase the development of domestic gas, tap into the potential of deep gas and unconventional gas, and ensure that domestic production maintains a growth trend. This is the greatest confidence in ensuring supply.
Deepen the diversification of import channels and build a complementary "transportation network" between land and sea. Guo Haitao emphasized that my country should try to reduce its over-reliance on any single channel, single country or single variety of imported energy. In particular, the sources of LNG should be dispersed to more resource countries as much as possible to reduce the concentration in high-risk areas; at the same time, China should further strengthen the terms of long-term LNG agreements and coordinate and deepen contract management.
Accelerate the green transformation of energy and create a "new engine" for clean energy substitution. One of the core measures to address geo-risk is to reduce dependence on fossil energy. Guo Haitao believes that the concerns arising from the conflict will "force China to accelerate the transformation of its energy structure." New energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics should be vigorously developed to replace oil and gas resources, thereby reducing the proportion of fossil energy in the energy structure.Dong Xiuchengalso said: “This conflict reminds us that we should continue to promote energy conservation and efficiency, pay more attention to the development of non-fossil energy, and fundamentally improve the ability to guarantee multiple energy security.”
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