(Source: Thinking Loud official account 2026-04-10)
Dong Xiucheng
Since the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran intensified, the global energy market has always been tense with a fragile nerve.
More than a month since the conflict broke out, international oil prices have skyrocketed and plummeted due to Trump’s policies and rhetoric that have changed day and night and Iran’s “asymmetric” counterattack. However, the current turmoil can only be regarded as a local "supply shock" at best, and has not yet formed the full-scale oil crisis of the early 1970s. Because only when the three conditions of massive supply interruption, sharp rise in oil prices, and comprehensive economic setback are met at the same time, can the "oil supply crisis" be regarded as an "oil crisis" in the true sense.
But this does not mean the alarm has been lifted. There are various signs that the precursors of a global oil crisis have emerged, and the market is standing at an extremely dangerous critical point. A new round of energy storm may be closer than we think.
Oil fire: global energy and economy suffered heavy losses
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war, the conflict has continued to escalate. The oil and gas transportation channels in the Middle East have been seriously blocked. The energy infrastructure of some countries has been attacked one after another. This has triggered shocks in the global energy market and a chain reaction of economic and social development. Its impact is far-reaching.
The first to bear the brunt is the severe setback in global oil and gas supply. Supply in core oil and gas production areas in the Middle East has shrunk significantly, with about 15% of global oil supply directly affected, and a single-day supply gap exceeding 15 million barrels. Shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy chokepoint, plummeted by more than 90%. The energy infrastructure of important oil and gas producing countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been attacked one after another. The supply of key strategic materials such as liquefied natural gas, sulfur, and helium has also been interrupted in stages.
Accompanied by supply disruptions, international oil prices have soared and fluctuated violently. The spread of panic prompted widespread concern in the international capital market about tightening supply. Brent crude oil once soared from US$72 per barrel to over US$140, the largest unilateral increase in recent years. In order to avoid risks in war zones, a large number of oil tankers were forced to suspend operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and the voyage distance and cost increased significantly. The daily rent of oil tankers has skyrocketed from US$20,000 to US$100,000, and shipping war insurance premiums have increased sharply by 30 times, further pushing up the comprehensive cost of global oil and gas w88.
The obstruction of energy supply and skyrocketing prices will inevitably cause chain reactions in global economic and social development. First, oil and gas prices have risen sharply, directly pushing up global inflation levels. It is expected that global average inflation will increase by 0.6-0.7 percentage points. Increasing inflationary pressure in the world's major economies will force the central bank to postpone the interest rate cut cycle, and some countries will even restart interest rate hikes, further suppressing the economic recovery process.
Secondly, the global industrial chain has been significantly impacted. Costs in the chemical, metal, chip, automotive, aviation and other industries have risen rapidly, and companies are facing pressure to reduce production or even suspend operations. The supply of helium, a key raw material for semiconductors, is tight, causing prices to double and exacerbating the fragility of the global electronics industry chain.
Once again, global food security risks are rising. At the critical period of spring plowing, fertilizer production and shipping logistics are blocked. About one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer w88 is affected. The rise in fertilizer prices is transmitted to grain production, driving global food prices to continue to rise, exacerbating dual pressures on people's livelihood and the economy.
From a regional perspective, if the incident continues, emerging economies may suffer significant impacts. The currencies of energy importing countries such as Turkey and Argentina will depreciate significantly, capital will continue to flow out, financial market volatility will intensify, and some markets may take measures such as restricting short selling to stabilize the stock market.
Crisis criticality: How far is a local shock from a full-blown storm?
At present, the US-Israel-Iraq war is in a stalemate stage, sometimes easing, sometimes intensifying, and the future trend is not yet clear. Although the trend of war in the Middle East is still difficult to accurately determine, some people are optimistic and some are pessimistic, but generally speaking, the comprehensive oil crisis that the world is generally worried about has not actually happened.
The violent fluctuations in oil prices caused by the war are currently closer to the impact of high-intensity geopolitical premiums. There is a clear gap between the systemic oil crisis experienced in the 1970s. It is not yet certain to conclude that "the oil crisis has come again."
Throughout history, the three recognized oil crises in 1973, 1979, and 1990 all had the characteristics of typical systemic shocks and were not simply a sudden surge in oil prices. Historically, the core criteria for determining the outbreak of an oil crisis include three:
First, the global oil supply has been significantly disrupted, with the supply gap usually reaching more than 10%, equivalent to a daily gap of more than 10 million barrels, resulting in a serious imbalance between market supply and demand;
Second, international oil prices have surged sharply in the short term, generally exceeding 100% or even doubling, forming a sustained high shock;
Third, the supply crisis has been transmitted to the real economy. Major countries in the world have experienced oil supply shortages, gas station purchase restrictions and rationing systems, etc., which in turn has pushed up inflation, suppressed economic growth, and ultimately triggered a large-scale economic recession.
It can be said that the "oil supply crisis" can be regarded as an "oil crisis" in the true sense only if the three conditions of massive supply interruption, sharp rise in oil prices, and comprehensive economic setback are met at the same time.
However, this oil supply crisis has not yet reached the situation of the full-scale oil crisis in the 1970s: first, there has not been a large-scale oil shortage and gas station supply outages; second, some countries have released strategic oil reserves, and some oil-producing countries still have the potential to increase production, which can make up for the oil supply gap in the Middle East; third, major countries have a relatively large ability to cope with oil shortages, and the global economy has not yet fallen into a substantial recession.
However, judging from the evolution of future war trends, the risk of a global oil crisis has not yet been eliminated. Because there are currently many precursors to the outbreak of the global oil crisis: first, the scale of the oil supply shock is several times that of Russia's supply cutoff in 2022; second, international oil prices once exceeded the 100 US dollars per barrel mark and fluctuated violently at high levels; third, inflation in many countries continues to rise, and economic growth expectations are generally not optimistic.
Judging from the trend, this war is likely to ease, conflicts in the Middle East will gradually cool down, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will resume in an orderly manner, and the market will return to a tight balance. But there is also the possibility of escalation: if the conflict continues to expand, the strait continues to be blocked, the global supply gap exceeds 15 million barrels per day, and the oil price rises to more than 150 US dollars, global inflation will inevitably get out of control, many countries around the world may have to initiate oil product rationing controls, and the energy market and economic order will face violent shocks.
Under the smoke: the deep logic of the global energy game
The US-Israel-Iraq War is not a simple regional dispute, but a concentrated manifestation of the international political and economic order in the energy field. Whoever controls energy supply and channels has the strategic initiative to influence global inflation, financial markets and industrial patterns. This is the essence of the global energy game.
The first is resource control and political games. Energy resources in the Middle East are mainly concentrated in countries along the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have an important say in the international political arena by controlling the production and export of oil and natural gas. However, the control of resources also triggers many political games. For example, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran largely stems from the competition for regional influence. In addition, major countries such as the United States, Russia, Europe and China also use various means to influence the energy pattern of the Middle East in order to safeguard or expand their own interests.
The second is to safeguard economic interests and geopolitical interests. Energy resources in the Middle East are not only an important source of national wealth, but also an important part of the international economic system. The economic development of many countries around the world is highly dependent on the energy supply in the Middle East. Therefore, controlling the energy resources of the Middle East means controlling part of the lifeblood of the global economy. This drive of economic interests has made the energy game in the Middle East more complex and intense. At the same time, geopolitical factors also play an important role. For example, the United States attempts to maintain its global hegemony through its military presence and diplomatic means in the Middle East; while Russia expands its influence by providing weapons and military support to Middle Eastern countries.
The third is to respond to global climate change and achieve sustainable development. As the global climate change problem becomes increasingly severe, energy production and use in the Middle East are also facing huge climate, ecological and environmental pressures. The use of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas not only leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, but also triggers a series of ecological and environmental problems, such as air pollution and water shortages. Therefore, the energy game in the Middle East is not only related to current resource control and economic interests, but also to major international issues such as future sustainable development and ecological environment protection.
Learning from War: Reflections and Paths on China’s Energy Security
The US-Israel-Iraq War has once again sounded the alarm. Energy security is related to the overall development of the country. Over-reliance on external energy and a single supply channel can easily lead to passivity. Facing the turbulent geopolitical situation, we must coordinate development and security, firmly hold the energy rice bowl in our own hands, and comprehensively build an independent and controllable bottom line for energy security.
We must continue to implement the strategy of diversifying oil and gas supply and resolutely get rid of dependence on a single channel. Continue to significantly reduce over-reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes, and accelerate the expansion of oil and gas import channels in Russia, Central Asia, South America and Africa. By expanding long-term agreements, we will lock in oil and gas supply as much as possible, build a parallel and multi-source supply system, and ensure the security and stability of supply.
Continuously improve the strategic energy reserve system and enhance emergency adjustment capabilities. Steadyly expand the scale of key strategic material reserves such as crude oil, LNG and helium, and optimize the reserve layout. We will improve dynamic monitoring and market-oriented delivery mechanisms, improve cross-department supply guarantee plans under extreme circumstances, and use strong inter-cyclical adjustment capabilities to stabilize external price shocks.
Improving the market risk mechanism and strengthening industry chain coordination. Improve the oil, gas and chemical product price early warning system, enrich energy futures and other derivatives tools, and guide companies to use hedging to hedge risks. At the same time, we will promote the integration of upstream and downstream energy and chemical industries, open up production, supply and marketing blockages, and improve the overall impact resilience of the industrial chain.
Accelerate energy transformation and reduce oil and gas dependence from the root cause. Vigorously develop renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, accelerate electrification, hydrogen substitution and industrial green power transformation in the transportation field, and gradually reduce the rigid demand for fossil energy. By building a clean and low-carbon modern energy system, we can fundamentally break out of the "oil crisis cycle".
Continue to improve technological innovation capabilities and accelerate the high-end transformation of the industry. Focus on "stuck" areas such as high-purity helium extraction, green hydrogen coupled coal chemical industry, CCUS and high-end chemical materials, and strengthen the collaborative research of industry, academia and research. Use technological breakthroughs to drive the industry toward green and refined upgrades, get rid of external dependence on key technologies and special materials, and consolidate the foundation of national industrial security.
Strengthen the modern coal chemical industry and build a solid foundation for independent supply guarantee. Based on the "rich coal" endowment, we will improve the intensification level of modern coal chemical industry. Consolidate the self-sufficiency rate of basic chemicals and tackle high value-added technologies such as coal-to-liquids, special fuels and high-end polyolefins. Through "coal-based substitution", we can effectively hedge against international oil price fluctuations and play the role of coal as "ballast stone".
War always brings pain and turmoil. People are displaced, markets are shaken, and there is no real winner. I hope the smoke will dissipate soon, conflicts will be resolved through dialogue, and hope for world peace and development will be restored.
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