“The current economic environment and20036228_6252”
What impact will the COVID-19 epidemic have on China’s economy? Will it happen again2003What was the situation like during the SARS period? From the perspective of division of labor in the global value chain, what impact will the epidemic have on China and even world w88?
2month12On the day of 7265_7298|, invited by the Tentacle College of China Business News, Associate Professor Lu Yue of the w88 casino“Businesses fight against the epidemic and overcome the difficulties together”The seventh lesson of the anti-epidemic live broadcast, "New Challenges and Countermeasure Suggestions of the New Crown Epidemic on my country's Industrial Chain" stated that as China's participation and status in the division of labor in the global value chain increase, the impact of the epidemic may touch more economic terminals. All walks of life in China have already and still need to take more measures and confidence to actively face uncertainty.
The environment of this epidemic is very different from SARS
Since the emergence of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, public opinion has generally associated it with20038417_8468
First of all, reviewing the data of this epidemic, Lu Yue and his team analyzed and found that currently, in general, the entire epidemic has been further effectively controlled. Compared with previous major international and domestic sudden epidemics, the mortality rate of the COVID-19 epidemic and the number of countries affected are less. However, compared with the SARS epidemic,“The mortality rate of the COVID-19 epidemic is increasing at a higher rate in a shorter period of time”, therefore, we must attach great importance to the negative impact and impact of the new crown epidemic.
From the perspective of economic aggregate, foreign investment and foreign w88 volume, service industry and development of small and medium-sized enterprises, China’s current economic situation is different from2003Years are also different.
The data is clear at a glance, Lu Yue listed, relatively2003Year,2019Year ChinaGDPThe growth rate has doubled6times, total import and export growth reached3More than 10 times, of which total export growth is close to4times. At the same time, Lu Yue and his research team also noticed that the service industry accounts for the entireGDPcompared to the proportion2003Increased by approx.30%, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises increased by approx.1More than 10 times, the utilization of foreign capital has also increased by nearly1.5times, the number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises in China has also increased50%About.
Especially from the perspective of division of labor in the global value chain, Lu Yue and his team calculated that compared to2003During the SARS period in 2018, China’s value-added w88 created growth of approximately6times, and its position in the global value chain has also improved1.6About times.
So-called“Global value chain division of labor”, that is“The production process of the entire product will no longer stay in one country or one company, but will be broken into many countries and many companies”, Lu Yue briefly introduced. From this, she believes that China’s participation and status in the division of labor in the global value chain have been significantly improved,“We should re-examine the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic from the perspective of the value chain”。
The impact of the epidemic on the economy is more subtle Implementing various positive measures
Assessed from the perspective of the division of labor in the global value chain, Lu Yue believes that the economic impact of the epidemic is mainly reflected in the service industry, small and medium-sized enterprises and key epidemic areas, and then the impact will be transmitted to the manufacturing industry and industrial chain.
Lu Yue predicts that the impact of the epidemic on the service industry will inevitably be transmitted to the manufacturing industry; at the same time, the epidemic will also have an impact on the consumer demand side, which will also be transmitted to the manufacturing industry. Many small and medium-sized enterprises undertake one or several production links in the division of labor in the value chain. At the same time, Hubei, as a major auto parts production base, is entirely likely to affect the operation of the auto industry across the country and even the world.
Finally, Lu Yue also said that in the long run, the international market and foreign-invested enterprises may have doubts and concerns, and may even accelerate industrial transfer, but the impact will be limited.
Based on the analysis of the impact of the epidemic environment and the division of labor in the global value chain, and in view of the measures taken by various departments and localities to actively resume production and respond to the impact of the epidemic, Lu Yue proposed five major suggestions: supply chain management, assisting small and medium-sized enterprises, orderly resumption of work, and establishing a platform and business environment.
Including ensuring the advancement of multilateral procurement and backup supply management through collaborative relationships between upstream and downstream suppliers; helping small and medium-sized enterprises to resume production and further alleviating their capital difficulties; encouraging staggered resumption of work and innovative resumption methods in different regions and batches, establishing an emergency logistics system and supply chain information sharing platform; further actively creating a better business environment and ensuring the legitimate interests of foreign investment in China.
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