(Source: People's Daily Online - Viewpoint Channel April 1, 2020)

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on March 31 that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in March was 52.0%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points from the previous month. This is first of all due to the great results achieved in my country's epidemic prevention and control, which has greatly improved the confidence of both consumers and producers. On the other hand, it also reflects the good fundamentals of my country's economic development. The short-term impact of the epidemic cannot change the basic trend of long-term improvement.

PMI reflects the change in production activity in the current month compared with the previous month. 50% means the same, while above 50% means more activity. All PMI indexes in March were higher than 50%, indicating that my country's economy recovered rapidly after a short-term decline. This is undoubtedly good news after experiencing a sharp decline in various production activities in February.

What the epidemic brought about was not a cyclical decline in economic growth, but more like a temporary shock, manifested in the sharp deceleration of the national economy in February. In the same way, the easing of the epidemic has also brought an immediate stimulus effect to the economy, and many economic activities that have almost returned to zero have revived at full speed. Although many policies and measures adopted by governments at all levels to actively encourage and promote the resumption of work and production have also played an important role in promoting the resumption of work and production, it is not possible to judge whether the economy has stabilized and rebounded based on the March PMI data alone.

It must be noted that the PMI rebound in March was achieved on an extremely low base in February. Compared with January or previous months, there is still a big gap. While the domestic epidemic was basically under control, the epidemic abroad, especially in developed countries in Europe and the United States, unexpectedly got out of control, causing our country's economy, which is highly integrated into globalization, to once again face pressure from both supply and demand. On the one hand, the spread of the overseas epidemic has caused my country's export market to shrink sharply. Exports from some industries that fell rapidly in February and March due to supply constraints will face a drop in demand or even interruption in the following months. On the other hand, many of my country's productions also require the import of foreign intermediates or raw materials. Foreign supply interruptions or logistics bottlenecks will make it difficult for the global supply chain system to operate, and will also bring certain difficulties to domestic production.

The rebound in the PMI in March demonstrates the strong resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy. Therefore, we have reason to maintain confidence in the economic trend, but we must also remain vigilant and closely observe the development of overseas epidemics and the adverse effects of multiple factors at home and abroad on the economy.

At present, the primary task of my country's economy is to create and stabilize domestic demand through active fiscal and monetary policies; at the same time, it helps export companies overcome the current difficulties, maintain minimum production operations, protect employment and people's livelihood, and especially support the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Although the COVID-19 epidemic is the most serious global crisis since mankind entered the modern era, with the joint cooperation of the international community, the active efforts of governments and people of various countries, and the advancement of medical technology, mankind will surely be able to defeat the virus. After experiencing a short-term crisis, China's economy will burst out with new vitality and successfully complete this year's expected goals.

Attached original text link:

http://opinion.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0401/c427456-31657972.html?from=groupmessage。