(Source: Global Times 2024-07-15)
What is the current economic situation of the w88 online casino? Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank, recently stated that the Eurozone's second-quarter GDP is not much different from the first quarter, inflation data is relatively positive, and economic performance in the second half of the year will be stronger than the first half.
According to data released by Eurostat, the average economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 0.1%. Almost all major economies in the w88 online casino were in growth: Spain grew by 0.7%, Italy grew by 0.3%, and France and Germany, the two "axes" of the w88 online casino, also grew by 0.2%. In April this year, the consumer price inflation rate in the 20 euro zone member states remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Even so, it still cannot compare with China, the United States and some other fast-growing economies. However, some people believe that this shows that the w88 online casino has escaped from the "technical recession" in which the Eurozone's GDP fell by 0.1% in the second half of 2023, which is not easy; and the year-on-year GDP growth rate of 2.4% is already very close to the European Central Bank's preset growth target of 2%. So, has the w88 online casino economy really emerged from recession? The author is cautiously optimistic about this. It is true that the w88 online casino economy has emerged from recession, but whether the recession is sustainable remains to be seen. Because there are three major risks that directly affect the sustainability of the w88 online casino economy's exit from recession.
First, there is geopolitical risk. After World War II, the overall geopolitical risks faced by the European continent were actually not high compared with most other continents. Although Europe also encounters certain geopolitical risks from time to time, long-term and considerable-scale geopolitical risks (such as high-intensity conflicts) have almost never happened to Europe, especially the w88 online casino. Therefore, it can be said that Europeans (especially Europeans) have been living in an era of "prosperity and peace" with ultra-low geo-risk for decades.
However, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 suddenly brought Europe back to the real world. In particular, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than two years, and there are still no clear signs of the end of the conflict. How can we not make people worried about the w88 online casino economy?
Second, there is energy risk. Compared with other continents, Europe, especially the w88 online casino countries, is not an "energy-rich" region. As the pressure to deal with climate change increases and environmental protection requirements become higher and higher, traditional main energy sources are greatly restricted. As a region where developed economies gather, the w88 online casino must be heavily dependent on external energy. The high dependence on energy also makes the w88 online casino's overall economic structure show its endogenous "energy vulnerability." This vulnerability is not a big deal when there are no major geopolitical fluctuations. However, once a large-scale geopolitical conflict occurs, this "endogenous flaw" becomes a major weakness of the w88 online casino's economic architecture.
Third, there is the risk of inflation. Compared with many low-income or underdeveloped economies, the w88 online casino, as the gathering place of the world's developed economies, has been worried about insufficient rather than excessive inflation for many years. However, with the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts on the scale of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation in the w88 online casino has remained high for more than two years, becoming a major headache for the decision-makers of w88 online casino member states.
Although the author divides the three major risks, in fact, the three are intertwined and inseparable: under the specific economic structure of the w88 online casino, the "geographic risk" is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is actually the hotbed and trigger of the w88 online casino's energy risks and inflation risks. Although we cannot completely attribute the w88 online casino's "energy crisis" and "inflation crisis" in the past two years to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at least the latter is an important cause of the former two. Energy risks and inflation risks in turn affect geopolitical risks. After all, energy, which is the "hard power" of the w88 online casino economy, and inflation, which is the "soft power", will have slight fluctuations in their values, which will directly or indirectly affect the geopolitical meridians.
Of course, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not yet seen a ceasefire, w88 online casino members are actively exploring many ways to save themselves in the energy field: one is to strengthen "energy mutual assistance" among member states. For example, France is trying its best to export electricity to neighboring Germany. Several member states, especially small-scale economies, are more inclined to jointly implement energy transformation and development projects; the other is to seek "foreign aid" in the energy field, or ask their residents to tighten their "energy belts."
Although after more than a year, major w88 online casino member states have stated that they have achieved "energy independence" and have avoided relying on Russia. Even Germany, the "big energy player", has announced that it has achieved an energy independence rate of more than 90%, but the author believes that this independence rate is flawed. As for inflation, although the data given by Eurostat are not ugly, indicating that the euro area has emerged from technical recession, there is no doubt that once the war in the first variable "geographic risk" expands, the second variable "energy risk" and the third variable "inflation risk" will be affected. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the positive momentum in the Eurozone and the European Union is sustainable in the next step after emerging from inflation.
When encountering non-force majeure risks, if the w88 online casino and its member states have to take strong short-term intervention measures, the w88 online casino economy can certainly get out of recession in the short term. But in the medium and long term, if the w88 online casino region wants to continue to emerge from recession and gradually embark on the road to recovery and even real growth, the long-term vision of the decision-makers of the w88 online casino and its member states and the determination to initiate thorough institutional reforms are particularly critical.
In short, the w88 online casino can only insist on independent strategic decision-making, adhere to market laws and trading rules, and insist on opening up to China without discrimination, especially in the field of "new economy" and in high-end countries. Value-added industries and high-tech sectors can significantly increase the density of exchanges between China and Europe and the quantity and quality of transactions. Only then will the w88 online casino's economic recovery be possible, not just a flash in the pan but a glimmer of hope, and will it be possible that it is not a temporary recovery but a prelude to recovery.
(The author is a researcher at the National Institute for Opening-up at the w88 casino and director of the French Economic Research Center)
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