Ikumi News:Hello, Principal Zhao. In 2024, China's economy will show strong vitality and potential under the complex situation. Which key indicators do you think can effectively demonstrate the economic vitality in 2024 and lay a good foundation for the economy in 2025?
Zhao Zhongxiu:First of all, the overall economic growth is stable, with a growth rate of 5%. Among them, the growth rate of industrial investment is close to 5%, especially in the field of high-tech advanced manufacturing, whose growth rate exceeds 10%, which reflects high-quality growth. Secondly, the annual foreign w88 growth reached 4.8%, which is a rare achievement from a global perspective. On the one hand, it makes full use of domestic production capacity, and on the other hand, it also contributes to the recovery of the world economy, thus laying a good foundation for next year's economic development and growth. In addition, prices have shown a positive and stable state, and the consumption index has begun to rebound. This is of great significance for enhancing market confidence and stabilizing expectations, and also lays a corresponding foundation for next year's economic growth.
Ikumi News:The Central Economic Work Conference has set clear directions for economic work in 2025. Based on the current situation and policy orientation, what kind of development trajectory do you predict China's economy will take in 2025?
Zhao Zhongxiu:The economy is expected to get off to a good start in the first quarter of 2025. It should be noted that due to the traditional Spring Festival holiday, the economic aggregate will usually decline to a certain extent during this period.
Since the second quarter, after about half a year of policy transmission, the policy effects will be fully apparent, and the economy is expected to achieve rapid growth, and this good trend is expected to continue in the second and third quarters. Although economic growth at the end of the year may be lower than expected due to a variety of factors, overall economic growth in 2025 is good. This is due to the policy effect of stabilizing expectations and confidence, as well as the combined effect of a series of policy adjustments in 2024. In this process, China continues to promote economic structural adjustment, and the resilience, investment enthusiasm and vitality displayed by the economy are full of expectations.
Ikumi News:In the global economic landscape, China's economy has always played an important role. Entering 2025, do you think the role of the Chinese economy in the global economic system will change? If so, in what aspects will it be reflected?
Zhao Zhongxiu:In 2025, China will continue to demonstrate its role as an important engine of world economic growth. It is understood that China’s economic growth contributes 30% to global economic growth. This not only helps stabilize the markets of developed countries, but also drives the industrialization and economic development of developing countries (the “Global South”) with the help of the “Belt and Road” initiative. As General Secretary Xi Jinping said, "When the world is good, China will be good; when China is good, the world will be better." This truly reflects China's contribution to the open world economy.
Ikumi News:The Central Economic Work Conference listed “vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand in an all-round way” as the first key task in 2025. How do you understand the concept of "expanding domestic demand in all aspects"? What key measures should be taken in terms of consumption and investment to effectively implement this mandate?
Zhao Zhongxiu:
To expand domestic demand in an all-round way, we must focus on the key points. The key is to make up for the shortcomings. For groups with high consumption propensity but relatively low income, efforts should be made to expand employment and increase transfer payments. At present, some relevant policies have been implemented, such as increasing pensions. This group accounts for nearly half of my country's total population, and effectively increasing their income is the core focus of policy efforts.
On the other hand, the demographic structure is changing, and the consumption concepts and habits of the post-00s and post-10s generations have changed significantly. The market has also responded to this. Foreign famous brands that were favored in the past have now been squeezed out by domestic products. Young people's consumption not only meets basic needs, but also pays more attention to emotional value. This is a reflection of consumption upgrading. This should be vigorously guided, promoted and promoted, and the quality of consumption must be improved even in the stock state.
There will also be changes in the investment direction in 2025. Investment will eventually trigger changes in the industrial structure. In the past few years, due to dual internal and external pressures, China's industrial structure has continued to adjust, and the scale of investment in new productivity, emerging industries and future industries is considerable. However, this requires a stable and predictable business environment to support it. In this way, private capital, state-owned investment, and even the patient capital emphasized by the state will actively invest. Therefore, it is crucial to enhance market confidence and improve the business environment. Whether it is the digital transformation of traditional industries, green development, or emerging industries, they will be the main direction of investment. In the past, the expansion of investment scale focused on launching new projects and building large businesses. Now that our country has entered a new stage of development, the stage of paving the way has passed. We should increase investment in emerging industries on the basis of existing stocks and abandon the repetitive and inefficient investment model of the past.
Ikumi News:Which industries do you expect to become new growth highlights in 2025?
Zhao Zhongxiu:This year, China’s electric vehicle production and sales have exceeded 10 million units, with monthly growth increasing by 45% compared with last year. Looking forward to next year, although the growth rate is likely to slow down, the overall scale will still jump to a new level. At present, electric vehicle-related technologies continue to improve, especially solid-state battery technology, which has become stable and mature in China and leads the world. In view of this, foreign manufacturers may need to rely on Chinese solid-state battery technology to help their development.
In addition, as the foundation of industrialization, materials have never stopped innovating and iterating. Thanks to its massive investment in scientific research, China has spawned numerous patent achievements, which have continued to be transformed into tangible productivity.
In the fields of health and medicine, China is also moving forward steadily and constantly making new breakthroughs.
Ikumi Shimbun: Generally speaking, where do you think the confidence that China’s economy will start again in 2025 mainly comes from?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Looking forward to China’s economy in 2025, confidence mainly stems from two key advantages:
One is the ultra-large-scale market. The domestic and international dual circulation currently being constructed has successfully opened up many blocking points and created massive demand for economic development;
The second is innovation capability, which covers both technological innovation and market transformation capabilities. The unique creativity of the socialist market economic system and mechanism has given rise to the power of continuous iterative upgrades, which is difficult for many countries to achieve. It is also the basis of confidence for China's economic growth and stable development. It can be expected that in 2025, China's economy will reach a new height, achieve stable growth, and the market will also show prosperity.
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