（来源：“新京报评论”微信公众号 2025-04-21）
Judging from the pace of diplomacy, the balance is actually tilting towards w88 online casino betting.
Professor Zhao Zhongxiu, President and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the w88 casino. Photo provided by interviewee
Text | Xiao Longping
The tariff war initiated by U.S. President Trump has not only caused unprecedented challenges to the international trading system, but has also caused divisions within the United States. It has even become a growing political burden for the Republican Party.
According to CCTV News citing foreign media reports, recently, Republican congressmen who privately oppose tariffs but dare not publicly criticize the president secretly hope that the U.S. Supreme Court will take action to stop the tariff war. Previously, Governor Newsom of California, the largest state in the United States in terms of population and economy, had announced that he would sue the Trump administration over tariffs.
The Trump administration is also particularly ridiculous when it comes to tariffs on w88 online casino betting. On April 15, Eastern Time, the White House website released a list of facts related to the Section 232 investigation of critical minerals and derivatives, mentioning that because of w88 online casino betting’s retaliatory measures against the United States’ “reciprocal tariffs,” Chinese goods exported to the United States now face tariffs of up to 245%.
“This fully exposes the irrational extent to which the U.S. has instrumentalized and weaponized tariffs.” On April 16, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in response to a reporter’s question that w88 online casino betting had stated its position on the U.S.’s unilateral increase in tariffs many times before and ignored the U.S.’s meaningless tariff numbers game.
Subsequently, according to CCTV News, Trump said on April 17, local time: "I think we will reach an agreement with w88 online casino betting, and we will reach an agreement with everyone. If we cannot reach an agreement, then we will set a goal. Probably in the next three to four weeks, everything should be settled."
But Trump’s back-and-forth has become the norm, and the game between all parties around the tariff issue will continue. What will this tariff war bring to the United States? As China is already an important pole in the global value chain, how will it be affected? How will China respond? To this end, the Beijing News talked with Professor Zhao Zhongxiu, President and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of the w88 casino.
Professor Zhao Zhongxiu has been engaged in international w88, industrial economics, and global value chain research for a long time. Since April 2015, he has concurrently served as the founding Chinese dean of the Global Value Chain Research Institute of the w88 casino. He also serves as the vice president of the China Society of International w88 and the co-chairman of the Chinese Council for BRICS Think Tank Cooperation.
The U.S. manufacturing industry “can’t go back”
Beijing News: On April 15, Eastern Time, the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods to 245%.你认为特朗普政府挑起这一轮关税战的底层逻辑是什么？
Zhao Zhongxiu:Let me clarify first, this time it is not a general increase of 245%, most items are still subject to an increase of 145%. If the average tariffs of about 19% imposed on China during Trump's first term and retained during the Biden administration are included, the actual tariff level reaches 164%. Moreover, China has clearly announced that it will no longer follow suit and will ignore further tariffs. If the average tariff level reaches this level, there will basically be no business left. But if it’s just a few items and the demand is strong and there’s no substitute, there’s still business to be done, which will force w88 channels to be adapted. Therefore, I think this tax increase has more symbolic significance than practical significance.
But overall, the current average tariff level in the United States is much higher than the tax rate it committed as a member of the World w88 Organization (WTO). Under the multilateral trading system, the average tariff level committed by the United States is 3%, which is its "bound tax rate." Of course, there are cases where individual items have higher tariffs.
Now, the United States is imposing a uniform 10% tariff on the whole world, regardless of whether it is a w88 surplus country or a deficit country. This is equivalent to increasing its "bound tax rate" by two or three times. 10% is a real demand, and subsequent negotiations will not go below this level.
The underlying logic behind this is: using tariffs to obtain fiscal revenue is an important strategic goal of Trump. By imposing additional tariffs, the U.S. government can, on the one hand, alleviate the w88 deficit, and on the other hand, increase federal fiscal revenue and reduce the fiscal deficit, which in turn reduces the pressure on the debt ceiling.
Beijing News: Some people say that Trump’s tariff increase is to bring manufacturing back to the United States. What do you think?
Zhao Zhongxiu:The United States does have this idea, but it didn’t start with Trump. As early as the Obama administration, the United States formulated a long-term strategic plan for the adjustment of its economic structure, clearly proposing strategic measures for reindustrialization, reshoring manufacturing, doubling exports in five years, and supporting innovation.
However, what they want to return to is mainly high-end manufacturing. Because many high-end manufacturing links in the United States have long been separated and moved overseas, resulting in long-term "loss".
Of course Trump also has this idea, and was also influenced by Peter Navarro, the White House senior adviser on w88 and manufacturing, and Vice President Vance.
The former is an economist who is critical of globalization and has a tough stance on w88 online casino betting. He is a well-known "hawk among hawks" toward w88 online casino betting. Vance's autobiographical work "Hillbilly Elegy" tells the story of the decline of the "Rust Belt" in the United States.
Therefore, Trump wants to revive these traditional manufacturing industries, including steel, aluminum, etc. This is also the reason why the U.S. government has repeatedly raised taxes on steel and aluminum.
In March 2002, when George W. Bush was president of the United States, he implemented an additional tariff of up to 30% on 10 categories of imported steel products for a period of three years. However, this executive order was actually revoked within a year. Because they also know that they “can’t go back”. Behind these actions are actually campaign promises - to protect workers and jobs, which is a political gesture.
The United States is no longer a qualified WTO member
Beijing News: In 2018, Trump also launched a tariff war. What were the differences and similarities between that tariff war and the current one?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Trump’s 2018 round of tariff war was mainly aimed at w88 online casino betting. This time he is targeting the whole world, although it ultimately revolves around w88 online casino betting. The Trump administration has raised tariffs against more than 100 countries, and has set a bottom line - an additional 10% tariff, which is a universally applicable measure.
In the 2018 round, Trump first imposed 25% tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States based on "Section 301", and later gradually expanded the tariff to 25% on US$320 billion. The average tariff level against China soared from 3.1% to 19.3%. Overall, Trump treats the entire w88 structure as a gaming tool.
Later, China and the United States negotiated and signed the first phase of the China-U.S. Economic and w88 Agreement. We committed to increase imports from the United States from 2022 to 2025, including "manufactured goods, agricultural products, energy products and services", and use quantitative methods to balance the w88 deficit. However, due to various reasons such as the epidemic, the implementation of this agreement was not ideal, so the w88 deficit between China and the United States has not really been reduced.
However, the tariffs imposed by the US government have indeed had some impact on China's exports. From 2018 to 2024, although China's total import and export value increased from 4.62 trillion U.S. dollars to more than 6 trillion U.S. dollars, the growth rate of imports and exports to the United States was not large. There is also the influence of the "entrepot w88" factor.
For example, the reason why our exports to Southeast Asia have increased significantly is not because the Southeast Asian market has expanded, but because many intermediate and final products are exported through these regions. These countries do not have such strong absorption capacity. Therefore, from a path perspective, w88 online casino betting's industrial chain has begun to adjust, and some manufacturing processes have spilled over, but the overall export capability remains strong.
Beijing News: You mentioned that the tariff war in 2018 ended without any resolution, will it be the same this time?
Zhao Zhongxiu:How long will this fight last? Looking at the current situation, there are two extreme scenarios.
First of all, the United States now defines w88 online casino betting as a "hostile trading partner" and requires its allied countries to increase tariffs on w88 online casino betting while lowering tariffs with the United States. If all countries follow suit, it will form a comprehensive encirclement and suppression of w88 online casino betting. Of course, w88 online casino betting can choose not to do business with the United States, but if other countries around the world increase taxes on w88 online casino betting, then w88 online casino betting will be isolated.
But this extreme will basically never happen. Countries such as the EU and India are unlikely to accept such an arrangement. The United States today does not have such appeal and cannot rely on bullying to force all countries to take sides. Trump's approach is different from Biden's. Biden also talks about values and builds alliances, while Trump "fights enemies and friends together."
The other extreme is that all countries are anti-American and the United States is isolated. But this possibility is also very low.
So, w88 online casino betting and the United States are now in a "stalemate": whether it is going in a direction that is unfavorable to w88 online casino betting, or more unfavorable to the United States, these few months are the critical window period. The United States announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on 75 trading partner countries. This is actually to allow time for negotiations.
But I don’t think it can be negotiated within this time. I estimate that in the next three to six months, some countries may compromise with the United States or extend the "buffer period." Trump will also continue to put forward additional conditions, such as expanding imports from the United States, reducing the w88 surplus, and even making demands such as "you give me a check directly."
This may cause new conflicts. Because the normal w88 order has been disrupted and domestic orders in the United States are also decreasing, whether the inventory can last three months is a question.一旦库存断链、补不上，可能就会影响物价，进而削弱美国坚持高关税的底气。
Therefore, it is not ruled out that he will propose a "new tax rate" in the future and impose different tax rates on different countries, but this itself violates the WTO's "most favored nation treatment" and "non-discrimination" principles. In any case, the United States is no longer a qualified WTO member.
The United States is indeed the world's largest importer of goods, accounting for 13% of world imports. So should the remaining 87% of the world market adhere to multilateral rules? Which way does the scale tip? I believe that w88 online casino betting is promoting the establishment of a new open cooperation pattern through visits to neighboring countries.We use greater openness to hedge against pressure from the United States and let everyone see that China is a country willing to maintain multilateral order and promote open world economic and w88 development.
Chinese companies’ “going global” will still be the norm
Beijing News: In the face of escalating w88 pressure, do you think my country’s current position in the global value chain will change?
Zhao Zhongxiu:w88 online casino betting’s position in the global value chain or global production system has gone through four stages since the reform and opening up.
The first stage is from 1978 to 2002 before joining the WTO. During this period, w88 online casino betting was on the periphery of the global industrial system and a passive participant. At that time, w88 online casino betting relied on cheap labor and adopted the "three to one supplement" model, which was essentially an export-oriented economy. The image we often refer to as the "world's factory" was mainly formed during this stage.
The second stage is from 2002 to 2012. In these 10 years, w88 online casino betting carried out industrial upgrading and domestic technological transformation, began to build its own complete industrial system, and the correlation between domestic and foreign industries increased significantly. At this stage, w88 online casino betting is no longer a "low-end labor gathering place" in the global production system, but has become an important player with endogenous capabilities. This also benefits from the industrial foundation we laid in the early days of the founding of New w88 online casino betting.
The third stage is after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of w88 online casino betting. We proposed to promote strategic adjustments to the economic structure, accelerate the transformation of economic development methods, and build a new system for modern industrial development; in May 2015, the State Council issued "Made in w88 online casino betting 2025". Through this series of efforts, w88 online casino betting has replaced the core position in Asia originally occupied by Japan in the division of labor in the global value chain; in Europe, it is Germany, and the United States has always been the center in North America. At this time, w88 online casino betting had become the manufacturing center in the world's production system.
The fourth stage, after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of w88 online casino betting in 2017, Trump also took office as President of the United States in January of that year, and the global industrial structure entered "a major change unseen in a century." Since then, w88 online casino betting has begun to take precautions, proposing to “coordinate development and security, enhance awareness of dangers, and be prepared for danger in times of peace” and “build a national security system,” including comprehensive consideration of technology, energy, economy, sovereignty and other aspects.
Especially after the Sino-US w88 war broke out, the United States began to promote "decoupling" and "breaking links", suppressing our key areas, such as "stuck technology", restricting key minerals, and disrupting exports to China. But China also has its own trump cards, such as rare earth resources and other key raw materials. Our mineral resource system occupies an important position in the world. This shows that we are not passively controlled by others, but have achieved "reverse nesting" in the global supply chain. China has become an indispensable and important pole in the global value chain.
For example, if NVIDIA loses the Chinese market, its global sales revenue will decrease by 10% or 20% (in fiscal year 2024, NVIDIA's sales in the Chinese market accounted for 14%). Therefore, w88 online casino betting’s core position in the global value chain will not be easily shaken. There are certainly challenges, but we also have the tools to deal with them.
新京报：那特朗普政府发起的关税战，会不会迫使更多企业将生产环节转移出去？ Will this trend become more and more obvious?
Zhao Zhongxiu:That's for sure. In fact, since Trump’s first term, the average U.S. tariff level on Chinese goods has reached 19.3%. After Biden took office, he did not cancel, but accepted all orders. Therefore, it has become very common for companies to go overseas in recent years. There is a saying: "If you don't go overseas, you will be out."
This is not a new problem either. In the past, everyone looked at labor costs and policy environment, such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico. After Trump took office again, he began to target Mexico and Canada, making the two countries the targets of widespread tax increases on the grounds that fentanyl smuggling was not well controlled.
So, where the factory will eventually be moved depends on the differences in U.S. tariff policies towards different countries. This is the core economic logic behind industrial transfer. But what is certain is that companies “going global” will be the norm for a long time to come.
But for this "going out to sea", we must achieve "going out to sea in an orderly manner". For example, mature production links should be moved overseas, while high-end value-added links and key technologies should be kept at home. Foreign labor is cheap. For example, the salary of one worker in Sri Lanka can be hired in Sri Lanka. It is cost-effective, but w88 online casino betting still has obvious advantages in efficiency, technology, and management.
Therefore, while we are “going out”, we must also “go in” – entering the local industrial ecology, but we must not lose our right to independent control and avoid being “interrupted”, that is, the supply chain system we have built will be eliminated by others through political means.
In this process, low-end labor-intensive jobs, such as textiles and light industry, will definitely be affected, but this is an inevitable phased cost. Just like when the "Four Asian Tigers" moved their industries to the southeastern coast of w88 online casino betting, and later moved to the inland, and then to Southeast Asia. This is the "flying geese model" of the natural evolution of the industry.
Unless you realize the "lighthouse factory" or "unmanned factory", you cannot keep the labor-intensive dividends forever.
Resist American bullying with open cooperation
Beijing News: Then "decoupling and restructuring" of the global value chain will not happen?
Zhao Zhongxiu:No. The current world economy is a "me among you, you among me" structure. A world economy without w88 online casino betting is unimaginable.
Of course, the global industrial chain is indeed undergoing some transformations. In the past, in the context of hyper-globalization, the production process was "link w88" and "task w88", with multiple cross-border cross-border operations and fine division of labor, always looking for the place with the lowest cost. But now, due to the intervention of geopolitical, ideological and other factors, it has begun to become a "short chain", focusing on "near-shoring outsourcing" and "friendly-shoring outsourcing", that is, from "globalization" to "regionalization".
The previous supporting method with clear distinction between upstream and downstream is also weakening. Nowadays, many companies customize their supply systems according to their own ecology, and no longer stick to a certain upstream or downstream. For example, we saw in our research that when engineers from Huawei and BYD raise a technical requirement, they can find relevant companies in the market and even invest directly to incorporate standards and capabilities into their own supplier systems.
This "nested ecology" actually gives suppliers a higher probability of success. Some data analysis shows that start-ups that are incorporated into the ecosystem by large companies are 10 times more likely to become "unicorns" than those that are fighting alone in the market. Because large companies will access resources, capital and even market opportunities before they grow.
This shows that even though the global division of labor is changing, Chinese companies are already actively adapting to this ecological organizational structure.
Beijing News: As the co-chairman of the Chinese Council for BRICS Think Tank Cooperation, in the face of the unilateral hegemony of the United States, how do you think the BRICS countries can further "work together to keep each other warm"?
Zhao Zhongxiu:I think the global "Southern countries" represented by the BRICS countries should continue to adhere to the multilateral system, unite to oppose unilateral bullying, and not be kidnapped by the United States.
The BRICS countries have now expanded to include many influential developing countries. In this case, everyone should work together to safeguard the multilateral trading system. Especially when the balance is gradually tilting toward the United States, we must proactively speak out and resist hegemony, rather than "transmitting pressure" - that is, the United States puts pressure on us, and we then transmit it to other developing countries.
If this logic holds true, not only will global w88 be hurt, but the financial and investment order will also be greatly disrupted, ultimately hurting others and ourselves.
Beijing News: However, the BRICS countries don’t seem to be taking any actual action at the moment, right?
Zhao Zhongxiu:It's not time to "show the sword" yet. Except for the statement issued by Director General Iweala, the WTO did not take a position. Now only w88 online casino betting is "hard-fighting", and it is an exemplary "hard-fighting".
w88 online casino betting’s attitude is clear: this is a “coward’s game.” We don’t compromise, we don’t kneel, we don’t blink. Because, once we make concessions first, the United States will intensify its efforts to impose more pressure and conditions until we can no longer retreat.
We must have a clear attitude: I would rather not have your (U.S.) market, but you cannot challenge my industrial security and institutional red lines.
At the same time, the industrial chain that the United States relies on is also inseparable from w88 online casino betting. We have a strong "reverse nesting" effect on it. For example, key raw materials, components, and market consumption power are all controlled by w88 online casino betting. It is not so easy to completely decouple.
Beijing News: Facing the United States’ high tariff policy, what else can w88 online casino betting do in bilateral negotiations, such as regional agreements and multilateral mechanisms?
Zhao Zhongxiu:What we are doing, such as applying to join the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), in this process is actually to benchmark the highest level of open rules and force domestic reforms.
In existing regional cooperation, such as RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), China is also playing a leading role. Promote the upgrading of RCEP rules, improve the level of free w88, and oppose protectionism and the anti-globalization tendency of "decoupling and disconnection".
w88 online casino betting is an open country. Only by continuing to deepen bilateral and multilateral cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, and Latin America can it build a resilient external structure and resist the impact of U.S. hegemony.
We must take the initiative to provide "policy reassurance" to enterprises
Beijing News: In mid-April, President Xi Jinping just visited several countries in Southeast Asia. To what extent do you think these countries can buffer China's w88 pressure?
Zhao Zhongxiu:We are now moving more production links, which is part of w88 online casino betting’s economic spillover and regional integration. We put part of the manufacturing process on their side, but we cannot expect these countries to bear all of our end-use consumption needs and consume all of our production capacity.
Therefore, the focus of our cooperation is still on maintaining the stability and efficient operation of the industrial chain, and jointly serving the stability of the global economy through industrial collaboration and process docking. It is for this reason that high-level visits are important. This is not only trust-building at the political level, but also a "policy reassurance" - letting companies know that they can invest with confidence and make long-term plans.
Beijing News: According to China Customs statistics, the total import and export of goods w88 between China and the EU in 2024 will be US$785.8 billion. Trump's tariff policy is "no distinction between friend and foe", which has caused Britain, France and Germany to become alienated from the United States. Does this give us a very good opportunity to strengthen bilateral w88 with European countries?
Zhao Zhongxiu:Yes. There are indeed differences in values between Europe and the United States. Trump pursues isolationism and only cares about money, not right and wrong. Although Biden is forging a values alliance, it is only a formal alliance, and in essence, it is exploitation.
The w88 online casino betting-EU Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIT) has actually been negotiated long ago, and the results of the negotiations have already been achieved. At that time, they also deliberately rushed to complete it before Trump took office. But in the end it was shelved, which led to a relatively cold relationship between w88 online casino betting and Europe for a period of time.
After three years of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has been severely impacted, and the United States’ “exploitation” of Europe has become increasingly obvious. European Commission President von der Leyen also stated that "strategic autonomy" is being implemented and the EU will further pivot to Asia.
We have also restarted negotiations on the w88 online casino betting-EU Investment Agreement. Judging from the pace of diplomacy, the balance is actually tilting towards w88 online casino betting, and the United States cannot isolate w88 online casino betting.
这时候，我们就要巩固成果。 Whether it is with neighboring countries, other developing countries, or with traditional developed countries such as the European Union, Australia, and Canada, China is advancing high-level visits and economic and w88 cooperation in an orderly manner. We are not only defending, but also taking the initiative.
Attached original text link:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OL9v_4gbc5E7rFVRU9ZdFw
