12month20日, the "World Economy in the Financial Crisis" forum of the International Business w88 casino's Lecture Series of the w88 casino is inNingyuan Building3The first floor lecture hall was solemnly held,Citigroup Global EconomistLewis S. AlexanderandJP Morgan Global EconomistMichael FeroliMr. gave speeches on "The Current Financial Crisis and Future Global Economic Outlook" and " Wonderful speech on the theme of "China-U.S. Economy under the Background of Financial Crisis".
Citigroup Global Economist:09Global economic growth will slow down1.5%
at12month20Sponsored by the w88 casino of International Business, University of Economics and Business Citigroup Global Economist at the "World Economy in Financial Crisis" forumLewis S. AlexanderIndicates Citigroup forecast09year globalGDPGrowth will be1.5%, and this is pretty much from80The worst performance so far.
Lewis S. Alexandersaid that after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, especially after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the world economy was heading into recession. All stock markets in the world have suffered a huge impact. Starting from the summer, the world's stock markets have fallen very sharply, with a total value of almost25Trillion, this is more than the worldGDPTotal value40%Many. This has led to the current decline in the global economy. We see that many consumers have stagnated and their wealth is shrinking. At the same time, there are more and more uncertainties. Everyone is worried about the weakness of the labor market and the credit crunch. Large businesses no longer invest or hire new employees. In this environment, business people are also shrinking. These factors have dragged down the growth of the global economy.
But he believes that there are also opportunities in the global economic recession. First of all, the prices of commodities, including metals and oil prices, have fallen sharply. This has brought down global inflation to some extent, giving some central banks more room for action. In countries like the United States, Switzerland, and Japan, their short-term interest rates are basically close to zero.
It also makes goods cheaper, and consumers can spend money to buy things. In addition, governments of various countries have responded in a very positive manner, including making adjustments to the international financial system. Large companies are also injecting liquidity, offering their own guarantees to financial institutions, and injecting new capital. He believes that all measures have prevented the global real economy from collapsing.
Citi is expected to be around2010around year,GDPThe growth globally can rebound to3.5%Around, but still much lower5%'s high growth rate.
Citigroup Global Economist:70The price of crude oil per barrel in US dollars is reasonable
Citigroup Global EconomistLewis S. Alexanderalso said that oil prices are in the declining stage of the cycle, and OPEC production cuts will be difficult to withstand the decline in global crude oil demand.
Lewis S. Alexandersaid that sometimes the price of crude oil in the short term is not entirely caused by the relationship between supply and demand. Under normal circumstances, demand has a greater impact on crude oil prices. Once demand changes significantly, prices will change accordingly. But when there is a problem with supply, there won't be that big of a change.
He believes that due to the decline in oil demand caused by the economic recession, even if OPEC cuts production, it will not lead to price increases. International oil prices are now in a cycle of declining demand, which is why prices are falling so fast. Even if supply decreases, prices continue to fall.
But at the same time, he believes that if OPEC wants to reduce supply, it will help stabilize oil prices.70The price of a barrel of crude oil in US dollars is reasonable. Earlier, OPEC Secretary-General Badri said that only crude oil prices per barrel70-80The U.S. dollar is even higher to meet the development needs of oil-producing countries. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, also said that per barrel75The dollar is the fair price for crude oil.
JP Morgan Global Economist: The global economy is in09It will gradually grow in the second half of the year
The global financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has led to a recession in the global economy. When will the global economy emerge from the shadow of the financial crisis? JP Morgan economist Michael.Ferrari thinks09The global economy will see gradual growth in the second half of the year.
Michael.Ferrari was attending an event hosted by the International Business w88 casino of the w88 casino The above statement was made in "The World Economy in the Financial Crisis". Ferrari said that everyone now has a consensus that the world economy will continue to experience negative growth in the first half of next year. Therefore, we judge so early that recovery in the first half of next year is unrealistic. Taking the United States as an example, he said the short-term policy interest rate will still be zero next year and will remain so12About a month. During this period, you will see that the investment income will gradually show up, and the mortgage interest rate will continue to decrease.
As interest rates continue to fall, people's demand for housing will further increase, and the supply of housing continues to decline, and the income from investing in housing will further rise. As long as housing prices stop falling, the financial system can slowly recover. After the financial system is restored, there will be zero interest rates again, which will have a great stimulating effect on the economy. Therefore, he predicts that not only real estate but also capital expenditure will improve. The economy will then see moderate growth in the second half of next year.
But he doesn't think this is a strong increase because it will take quite a while for consumer spending to recover. But as the effects of various countries' bailout policies emerge, consumption may see a period of growth in the second half of next year. He also believes that the current economic confidence has been greatly frustrated because the fundamentals of the economy are so unsatisfactory. And there is a process of building confidence, but in the end economic fundamentals are the important determining factor. At present, it seems that the positioning of policies will gradually improve economic fundamentals. However, neither fiscal policy nor monetary policy can produce immediate results. Therefore, next year we will gradually see infrastructure investment and consumer spending gradually increase.
(Original link:http://finance.ifeng.com/money/banks/hydt/20081221/271137.shtml)
