(Source: The Paper 2026-03-02)
The situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, arousing the most sensitive nerves in the global oil market. According to Xinhua News Agency, on February 28, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, and Iran immediately launched a large-scale counterattack. At present, the war has spread to the entire Persian Gulf, and the situation in the Middle East may be pushed into a dangerous abyss. According to CCTV news, US President Trump said on March 1 that military operations against Iran may last about four weeks, "or shorter."
The futures market will open at 7:00 on March 2, Beijing time. International oil prices once soared 13%. WTI crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to 75.33 US dollars per barrel, and London Brent crude oil for May delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange hit a high of 82 US dollars per barrel. The gains of the two oils have narrowed after opening sharply higher. As of press time, WTI and Brent were trading at US$72.78/barrel and US$79.67/barrel respectively, with increases of 8.59% and 9.33%.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil and gas shipping, has become the "line of life and death" that determines the trend of oil prices. This waterway, which is only 40 kilometers at its narrowest point, is the only way for crude oil exports from Middle East oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The oil transported through this channel accounts for about 20% of the total global oil transportation. A large amount of liquefied natural gas produced in Qatar is also transported through this strait. According to CCTV news, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28 that it would ban any ship from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively closed as oil tankers and other ships have stopped passing through Hormuz. On March 1, an oil tanker trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit and began to sink.
"Currently, Iran has announced an administrative ban on navigation (non-physical mining/sinking), oil tankers have collectively adopted hedging and suspension measures, and the Strait of Hormuz has actually suspended navigation. The average daily shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz is 18-21 million barrels per day, accounting for 20%-25% of global seaborne oil. It is an important lifeline of the world's energy, so it has a great impact on the global energy market and prices."Dong Xiucheng, Professor of w88 casino of International Business and Economics, w88 casinoAn analysis of The Paper said that observing the follow-up trend, the probability of increasing regional conflicts and intermittent blockade of the strait is high. "Under this scenario, the United States and Israel expand and continue to attack Iran, and Iran's counterattacks increase, increasing the phased navigation ban or harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, and the waterway is completely closed, resulting in the complete export of crude oil in the Middle East." As a result, oil tanker freight and insurance premiums have risen, causing serious shortages in the international energy market. As a result, international oil prices may soar to 100-110 US dollars per barrel, and are in a high and volatile state. The international energy capital market is in a state of risk aversion, causing pressure on shipping, rising inflation in major economies, forcing central banks to adjust their monetary policies, and increasing the risk of a global economic crisis. ”
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that if under the "limited conflict + rapid resumption of navigation in the strait" scenario, international oil prices may rise to 80-100 US dollars per barrel, and then gradually fall back to the fundamentals of supply and demand after a short-term surge; under the "comprehensive blockade + conflict spillover" scenario, some Gulf oil-producing countries are forced to be involved in conflicts, and oil prices may rise to 120-150 US dollars per barrel, or even higher, and global inflation will jump by 1-2 percentage points. The above two hypothetical scenarios are less likely to occur.
"Before the United States and Israel jointly attack Iran this time, the theoretical benchmark price of Brent crude oil should be 63 US dollars. Last Friday's closing price of 73 US dollars has already included a risk premium of 5 US dollars. If Khamenei's successor resists in power, under the limited intensity of the attack, it is estimated that the oil price may rise again An increase of 5-10 US dollars. If the conflict spills over to neighboring countries, oil prices will directly hit the 90 US dollars mark. If the successor is not successful, the conflict may end quickly, and the oil price may soon fall back to below 70 US dollars after briefly rising to 80 US dollars." Yan Jiantao, chief researcher of Jiecheng Energy, told The Paper.
Will the shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz lead to the worst supply disruption since the 1973 oil embargo?
“This actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an unprecedented challenge. " Yan Jiantao told The Paper that Iran has long threatened to close the strait in tense moments, but has never taken action. It has previously seized container ships and oil tankers in the strait, and there was a so-called "tanker war" in the 1980s. The possibility of Iran completely blocking the strait is rising. "The market is evaluating alternative routes and ports. There are several overland pipelines that carry oil to ports on the Red Sea or Mediterranean Sea. However, many of these pipelines require repairs and upgrades, or are closed due to political, economic or geopolitical issues in the region. The main problem with using alternative routes is the limited processing capacity of these pipelines and ports. ”
He believes that in extreme cases, if the Strait of Hormuz falls into disorder rather than strategic control, the oil market volatility will exceed any period since the 1979 revolution.
This is why OPEC+’s emergency production increase is “insignificant”—no matter how much it increases, it may not be able to be shipped. OPEC's official website issued a statement on the 1st saying that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided to increase production by an average of 206,000 barrels per day in April. These eight major oil-producing countries have previously announced multiple rounds of voluntary production cuts. However, the key now is no longer production capacity, but the "locking" of logistics channels.
“The shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is a fatal w88 constraint. Middle East oil-producing countries rely on Hormuz for 90%+ of their exports. Even if OPEC+ radically increases production, the actual increase in effective supply will be very limited. ”Dong XiuchengReported to The Paper.
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that the suspension of flights to Hormuz is similar to the 1973 oil embargo in that both conflicts in the Middle East triggered supply shocks, resulting in skyrocketing oil prices, rising global inflation, and heightened risk aversion. But there are obvious differences: the nature of the impact is different. In 1973, it was a proactive embargo by Middle East resource countries + long-term production reduction, while this time it was military deterrence + short-term logistics interruption. "The two are not of the same magnitude."
Yan Jiantao further analyzed that looking back on the history of major military and geopolitical events in the past 15 years, oil price fluctuations have obvious "pulse-like" characteristics. Once the market quickly realizes that supply can be quickly restored or that disruptions are limited in scope, prices may give up all gains within days to weeks.
For example, in February 2011, after the civil war broke out in Libya, oil prices rose from 84.81 US dollars to exceed 104 US dollars within two weeks. In September 2019, Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure was attacked. Oil prices jumped from US$60.22 to US$69.02 in one day, and fell to the pre-incident level within 12 days, with an increase or decrease of US$17.04 in 11 days. In January 2020, Suleiman of Iran was assassinated. Oil prices rose from US$66.25 to US$68.91 in two days, and then fell back to the pre-incident level, with a decline of US$6.13 in four days. In February 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and oil prices rose from US$96.84, breaking through US$100 on the 3rd, US$120 on the 7th, falling below US$100 on the 5th, and falling or increasing by US$59.21 in 14 days. In June 2025, Israel attacked Iran, and oil prices jumped from US$69.36 to US$77.01 within five days, and then fell back to the pre-incident level within two days, with a seven-day increase or decrease of US$17.52.
According to Capital Economics, if crude oil prices soar to US$100 per barrel, the global average inflation rate may increase by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points.
Historically, large-scale oil supply disruptions (or perhaps even the mere threat of supply disruptions) have caused oil prices to spike, fueling inflation and causing knock-on effects on the world economy.
Dong XiuchengAccording to The Paper, the surge in oil prices is bound to have an impact on global inflation, that is, the price transmission effect, which directly affects the rise in prices of refined oil, transportation, chemicals, and fertilizers; indirectly affects logistics costs, leading to food prices/retail prices; indirectly affects manufacturing costs, leading to an increase in the price of end consumer goods; indirectly affects the depreciation of the exchange rate, leading to an increase in imported inflation, and promotes imported inflation. "For oil exporting countries, fiscal improvement, currency appreciation, and hedging against inflation; for importing countries, imported inflation pressure is high, international balance of payments is damaged, and exchange rates are under pressure."
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