Relevant experts interpret the situation between the United States and Iran
w88 casino News Network (Reporter Morning Joy)A few days ago,JustIraqi Shiite militia groupDeputy Commander of the "Popular Mobilization Organization" Abu Mahdi MuhandisIn the incident where others were killed by US rockets, the deputy dean of the w88 casino of Foreign Languages of w88 casino,Professor Ding Long, Director of Gulf Research CenterI have spoken out many times to analyze the tension between the United States and Iran and explain my views.
AcceptingXinhua News AgencyDing Long during reporter’s interviewrepresentationThe "Quds Force" is the overseas operations branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Soleimani played an important role in the anti-American armed movement in Iraq and surrounding conflicts. His death in a US airstrike was a major blow to Iran's ability to conduct military activities abroad. Since the United States does not want to have a large-scale direct military confrontation with Iran, it chooses to attack some pro-Iranian forces in the region. In this way, it indirectly attacks Iran and puts pressure on Iran. Ding Long said that Iran would not overreact to the attack, because during the recent protests and demonstrations in Iraq, both the United States and Iran have been the targets of Iraqi public protests, and both countries are under pressure due to proxy wars.
atOn the day of the attack, many countries issued statements urging all parties to maintain calm and restraint and avoid further escalation of tensions.Relevant parties have launched a new round of intensive communication, and major countries are frequently connected.Radio France Internationale pointed out that Wang YiOn the 4th, he had phone calls with the foreign ministers of Russia and France. The French foreign minister also discussed the situation in the Middle East with the foreign ministers of China and Germany. The foreign ministers of the three countries all believed that it is necessary to avoid escalation of tension. Judging from the press release issued by China, the phone call between Wang Yi and Lavrov was relatively "special" - the other three phone calls were all "in response to an appointment", but the call with Lavrov did not have the word "in response to an appointment."
In this regard, Professor Ding Long toldReference messageReporter:As permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China and Russia have very important political, economic and security interests in the Gulf. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain close communication. The two sides are notThe "response" call shows that China and Russia have a communication mechanism on international affairs and security matters, which does not need special emphasis.Ding Long also said:"The United States' actions have actually been opposed by the whole world. The United States insists on going its own way, causing the Gulf peace that the international community has made great efforts to achieve to be in vain. This is something that no party is willing to see."
If the conflict between the United States and Iran further escalates, what impact will it have on the global economic situation? Ding Long rightBeijing NewsThe reporter said that the specialness of the Gulf region is that it is the world’s main oil and gas storage and supply place. The Gulf region’s oil reserves account for 10% of the world’s total.60%, accounting for nearly 1/3 of the output. About 43% of China's oil comes from the Middle East, especially the Gulf. Therefore, if the security situation in the Gulf region becomes tense, it will have a great impact on international oil prices and the overall economic situation, especially for oil importing countries. Among the major economies, only the United States does not need oil from the Gulf, because the United States has basically achieved energy self-sufficiency and has the ability to export. However, economies such as China, Japan, and India are oil importers and will be harmed by the tense situation in the Gulf. But Ding Long also pointed out that the world's oil supply chain is still relatively loose, with supply basically exceeding demand, so the impact of changes in the situation in the Gulf on oil prices should be short-term. In the long term, oil prices will remain at a relatively low level. If the United States and Iran can maintain restraint and find political solutions, the impact on oil prices and the world economy will still be controllable.
Ding Long also believes that war is what both the United States and Iran want to avoid. For the United States, this year is an election year. Trump himself wants to fade away from the Middle East. He does not want to get too deep in the Middle East, let alone fight a war. For Iran, if there is a head-on military conflict with the United States, Iran will not be able to take advantage. The national strength of the two countries is very different. Therefore, the countermeasures we have seen from Iran so far are all at the political and diplomatic level, and military measures will not be taken rashly.
Attachment: Original report link
Xinhua News Agency:A senior general was killed. Will Iran retaliate against the United States?
http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/8780392?channel=weixin&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0
Beijing NewsThe rising tensions between the United States and Iran are dragging down the global economy and will they push up global inflation?
https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/157831574715273.html
