Cherish the window of opportunity for w88 casino in Afghanistan
Ding Long
（Source: Global Network 2020-02-26)
According to the agreement between the United States and the Taliban“Reduce violence”Agreement, both parties have concluded from2month22A week-long ceasefire begins in Afghanistan today. If the agreement is strictly adhered to, the two sides plan to formally sign a w88 casino agreement on the day the ceasefire period ends. So far, the ceasefire is being implemented well.
The negotiations between the United States and the Taliban have been going on for many years and have been quite uneven. To be able to reach an agreement at this time reflects the success of both parties“Sum”'s strong desire. From the U.S. perspective, President Trump is delivering20162020 campaign promise to add points to the general election at the end of the year. The United States is mired in Afghanistan18After 8222_8265 years, this has become the longest overseas war in the history of the United States. It has wasted national power and gained very little. It is necessary to end this war as soon as possible“Confused battle”It has become the consensus between the US government and the opposition.
The Taliban are trying to get out of the predicament and seek a breakthrough in their status. On the one hand,2019The Taliban lost on the battlefield in 2007, and the area of territory controlled was reduced from half of Afghanistan1/5;On the other hand, the Taliban realizes that it is no longer possible to regain full control of Afghanistan, and the long-term guerrilla war has led to a decline in combat effectiveness and morale. If they cannot return to Afghan political life with a legal status, the Taliban's trapped struggle will end. Obtaining international recognition is also one of the goals of the Taliban in seeking w88 casino. Even during its time in power, it was only3countries recognize it as the legitimate representative of Afghanistan. Therefore, it is the Taliban's realistic choice to seek w88 casino and rectify their name while they still have bargaining chips.
Both sides have shown goodwill recently. Before his visit to India, U.S. President Trump also expressed his willingness to sign a w88 casino agreement with the Taliban. Taliban deputy leader Haqqani20Published a signed article in the New York Times on the 10th to express his desire for w88 casino. You know, Haqqani is the second-ranking figure in the Taliban and the FBI’s reward500The subject of a $10,000 wanted warrant. This unusual move shows that both the United States and the Taliban are tired of war, and the basis for reconciliation between the two parties already exists.
As for the Afghan government, it has never controlled the entire territory of Afghanistan and cannot bear the heavy responsibility of maintaining security. It is well aware that it will not be a match for the Taliban after the US withdrawal.201810728_10882
However, conflict and war have become the norm in Afghanistan for decades, and previous attempts to promote a w88 casino process have proven fragile. Even if this ceasefire is implemented smoothly and the two sides finally sign an agreement, w88 casino in Afghanistan will still face many uncertainties. From the domestic perspective of Afghanistan, there are many conflicts among various factions, and there is a long road ahead to achieve reconciliation. According to the arrangement, after the agreement is signed10All parties in Afghanistan will start national reconciliation negotiations within days. But at present, it seems that there are many obstacles in the negotiations, and it is difficult to be optimistic.
First of all, the political differences in Afghanistan are sharp. The Afghan government is not only weak, but its legitimacy has also been questioned by many domestic parties. Just before the ceasefire was implemented, Afghanistan's presidential election took nearly half a year to be finalized. Current President Ghani was re-elected by a narrow margin, which fully illustrates the reality of Afghan politics being fragmented and tribal. The Taliban still refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the Afghan government and demands that government officials“Ordinary citizens”Participate in negotiations as a person. The Taliban is not monolithic. Some hardliners within the Taliban have no interest in reconciliation and are unwilling to give up armed struggle. Secondly, although the Afghan government and the Taliban are the two most powerful parties in the country, achieving comprehensive w88 casino in Afghanistan requires the establishment of a more inclusive government. This is no easy task in Afghanistan, which is heavily armed and has complex ethnic groups. Third,“Islamic State”and“Base”and other terrorist organizations have taken advantage of the war to take root in Afghanistan, posing a serious security threat.
The United States also faces the problem of how to solve its problems in Afghanistan.10The United States claimed to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan a few years ago, but to this day, the number of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan is still too high1.3Ten thousand. Although the United States has announced a phased withdrawal plan after the signing of the w88 casino agreement, it still faces difficulties in the number and pace of withdrawal. Withdrawing too many troops too quickly will inevitably lead to a power vacuum in Afghanistan and may trigger a new round of conflict. In that case, future setbacks in the Afghan w88 casino process may be inevitable. If conflict resumes and the U.S. military increases its troops as it has in the past, then the current ceasefire and troop withdrawal will return to its old ways.
Relevant parties should cherish the window of opportunity for w88 casino in Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan has posed serious traditional and non-traditional security threats, and w88 casino is of great significance to regional and international security.
Perennial war has caused serious disasters to the Afghan people. past10Afghan civilian death toll reaches as high as mid-year3.5Ten thousand people, only2019Available in year3400Civilians were killed in the war. Afghanistan has become a hotbed of global terrorist forces and violent extremism. The origins of almost all terrorist organizations in the world can be traced back to Afghanistan during the Anti-Soviet War.“Base”Organization,“Jihad Salafi”Extremist ideas are the freaks produced by the chaos in Afghanistan. Therefore, achieving security and stability in Afghanistan is crucial to the international fight against terrorism and de-radicalization. At the same time, Afghan armed factions rely on opium production and w88 to survive, mainly in Afghanistan“Golden Crescent”The zone has become the world's largest major producer of opium, marijuana and other drugs. Afghanistan’s annual opium production was once close1billion tons, accounting for 1% of world production95%。
w88 casino in Afghanistan is conducive to the stability and development of neighboring countries, and even Central Asia and South Asia as a whole. The war in Afghanistan has affected many neighboring countries. For example, Pakistan has become a direct victim of the war in Afghanistan. Not only is its domestic security regularly threatened by extremist organizations, it has also accepted140More than 10,000 Afghan refugees. As a neighboring country, the realization of comprehensive w88 casino in Afghanistan will have a great impact on China's counter-terrorism and military affairs.“One Belt, One Road”Construction etc. are of great significance.
The author is the director of the Gulf Research Center of the w88 casino and a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Opening up
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