In-depth analysis丨The logical relationship behind the plummeting international w88 casino prices
Dong Xiucheng
(Source:《China Energy News》2020-03-11)
In recent days, international w88 casino prices have plummeted wildly. In just a few days, they dropped from 1% per barrel50Dollar falls to barrel30Under US dollars. According to predictions by many international institutions, international w88 casino prices may fall to as low as 100% per barrel20Around USD, even down to a barrel10Around USD. w88 casino prices have once again attracted global attention, and w88 casino and gas investors have begun to generally worry about future w88 casino price trends. What are the factors affecting changes in international w88 casino prices? What is the reason for this collapse in w88 casino prices? What is the future trend of international w88 casino prices?
Factors affecting changes in international w88 casino prices
From the perspective of market relations,There must be two forces that influence the trend of international w88 casino prices, one force is pushing up, and the other is pulling down, and the actual trend of w88 casino prices depends on the strength of the two forces. According to the basic principles of economics, the price of a commodity is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, that is, the supply and demand of the commodity interact to achieve market equilibrium, and then determine its equilibrium price. Theoretically, w88 casino is a commodity and its price should also comply with this basic law. However, because w88 casino has special attributes beyond ordinary commodities, is of strategic significance to the world, and is a special commodity, its price formation is not only affected by the relationship between supply and demand, but also has many other factors at play.
The factors that affect w88 casino prices can generally be divided into two categories: long-term factors and short-term factors. Long-term factors are factors that affect the supply and demand of w88 casino prices and determine the long-term trend of international w88 casino prices. Short-term factors are the forces that influence short-term fluctuations in w88 casino prices.
Long-term factors
Long-term factors affect the supply and demand relationship in the w88 casino market,Includes factors affecting supply and factors affecting demand, determines the long-term trend of international w88 casino prices.
(1) Factors affecting supply
1.World w88 casino reserves
Petroleum is an exhaustible resource with limited natural reserves. The scale of reserves represents the total amount of w88 casino resources that humans can exploit. At present, there are still many sedimentary basins in the world that may contain w88 casino that have not been explored due to their relatively remote geographical locations. The development of exploration technology will continue to increase the reserves of original w88 casino fields. The potential of unconventional w88 casino resources is very huge. It is expected that humans will discover more and more w88 casino reserves. w88 casino reserves-to-production ratio (proven reserves/Production of the current year) is an important indicator reflecting the potential of w88 casino resources. Through quantitative analysis of historical data, it was found thatChanges in the reserve-production ratio are one of the causes of w88 casino price fluctuations。
2.World w88 casino production
w88 casino-producing countries, mainly w88 casino-producing countries in the Middle East, America, and Central Asia and Russia, play a very important role in the world's w88 casino supply. Changes in the utilization rate of these countries' w88 casino production capacity and their proportion in the world's w88 casino supply have a profound impact on world w88 casino prices. Supply in the world market is characterized by concentration. Resource countries can trigger an increase in crude w88 casino prices through production cuts, embargoes, etc., and they can also promote a decrease in w88 casino prices by increasing production.
3.w88 casino cost
At present, the world's major w88 casino fields have entered the late stages of development, and development costs have increased significantly. Most of the new reserves are located in areas with complex geological conditions and harsh geographical environments. Exploration and development have become more difficult. The scale of conventional w88 casino resources is decreasing day by day. Exploration and development costs have increased significantly, which has a significant driving effect on w88 casino prices. According to historical data analysis, there is a certain correlation between the changing trend of w88 casino prices and the changing trend of costs.The w88 casino price curve fluctuates up and down around the cost curve, indicating that w88 casino cost is a factor that cannot be ignored in w88 casino price fluctuations and determines the long-term trend of w88 casino price rise and fall.
(2) Factors affecting demand
1.World economic growth
Global economic growth or unexpected growth will affect the rise of international w88 casino prices. In turn, abnormally high w88 casino prices will inevitably hinder the development of the world economy, and the slowdown in global economic growth will affect the increase in w88 casino demand. Generally speaking, when the economic cycle rises, economic activities are active and w88 casino demand increases. At this time, even if the supply remains unchanged, w88 casino prices will rise with the upward economic cycle. In the same way, it will also fall back with the downturn of the economic cycle. Through historical data analysis, the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy are related in time to the w88 casino crisis. The sharp fluctuations in w88 casino prices before the w88 casino crisis and the cumulative effect of the w88 casino crisis coincide exactly with the recession stage of the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.It can be seen that there is synchronicity in the timing of the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy and the w88 casino crisis。
2.Alternative energy
Alternative energy is an important constraint on the rise in w88 casino prices. When w88 casino prices rise sharply, it will stimulate the development of alternative energy.The cost of alternative energy sources will determine the upper limit for w88 casino prices. When the price of w88 casino is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Affected by the w88 casino crisis, major w88 casino-consuming countries have adjusted their energy consumption structure, using more alternative energy and reducing their dependence on w88 casino.
3.Energy efficiency
Energy utilization efficiency is an important factor affecting w88 casino demand, rising w88 casino prices will promote the improvement of energy utilization efficiency. The w88 casino crisis has promoted the improvement of energy utilization efficiency in developed countries in Europe and the United States, reducing the effective demand for w88 casino. With the development of science and technology and the support of national policies, energy utilization efficiency will be further improved in the future, and the effective demand for w88 casino will gradually decrease in the long term.
4.Low carbon policy and environmental awareness
Coping with global climate change has become a common problem faced by all countries in the world, developing low-carbon economy and circular economy, accelerating the development and promotion of clean production technologies with high resource utilization efficiency and low pollutant emissions,Developing clean energy and high value-added products has become the future development direction, will accelerate the adjustment of energy structure, promote the development of alternative energy, reduce w88 casino demand, and have a restraining effect on w88 casino prices.
Short-term factors
1.Major geopolitical events
Because w88 casino is a strategic resource, and there is a serious asymmetry between consumption and supply, it determines that in the entire chain of supply to consumption, problems in any link will lead to short-term fluctuations in w88 casino prices.Major geopolitical events have a very significant impact on w88 casino price fluctuations. Major geopolitical events include the strengthening of the nationalist consciousness of resource countries, internal political and social unrest in resource countries, international w88 casino embargoes and sanctions, control of key transportation channels, international political conflicts, military conflicts and out-of-control diplomatic relations, etc., which often stimulate w88 casino price increases in a short period of time.
2.Major sudden natural or social disaster
The outbreak of major sudden natural disasters or social disasters in major w88 casino producing or consuming countries in the short term will trigger w88 casino price fluctuations, including major safety accidents in w88 casino transportation channels, major natural disasters in important w88 casino production areas such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes that damage w88 casino production facilities, internal political and social unrest, conflicts, strikes and terrorist attacks in resource countries.
3.Financial factors
Financial factors mainly include changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and futures market speculation. Based on historical data analysis, since2001Since the beginning of the year, there has been a significant negative correlation between w88 casino prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar. If the US dollar depreciates, the w88 casino price will accelerate to rise. If the US dollar appreciates, the w88 casino price will accelerate to decline. The spot crude w88 casino price in the international w88 casino market is not directly determined by the supply and demand parties. When the two parties sign a supply contract, they usually only determine a certain pricing formula. The benchmark price in the pricing formula is generally related to the spot price, futures price, or the quotation of a certain quotation agency for a period of time before and after the transaction. The proportion of futures prices continues to increase. When major changes occur in the w88 casino market, speculative activities in the futures market become more active. Financial speculators anticipate that w88 casino prices will rise or fall, and buy or sell futures contracts in large quantities, which will promote the rise or fall of w88 casino prices.
4.w88 casino stocks
When futures prices are much higher than spot prices, w88 casino companies tend to increase commercial inventories, stimulating spot price increases, and futures-spot price differences decrease; when futures prices are lower than spot prices, w88 casino companies tend to reduce commercial inventories, and spot prices fall, forming a reasonable spread with futures prices.w88 casino inventory can reflect the supply and demand situation of w88 casino to a certain extent, inventory reduction indicates strong demand for w88 casino, tight supply, and rising w88 casino prices; conversely, falling w88 casino prices.
Why have w88 casino prices plummeted recently?
This w88 casino price plunge is still not caused by a single reason, but is the result of a combination of multiple complex factors.The interweaving of long-term factors and short-term factors, the imbalance of supply and demand and the superposition of major emergencies, and the integration of political factors and economic factors constitute the main characteristics of this w88 casino price plunge。
Long-term factors are the main reason: global w88 casino supply and demand are seriously imbalanced
1.The global economy has been in a low-speed and sluggish state in recent years, and has been unable to stimulate w88 casino demand
201928491_28508. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth rate of developed countries in 2020 will be 1.7%, of which the euro area growth rate is expected to be 1.4%, and Japan's growth rate will drop to 0.5%; the economic growth rate of developing countries will be 4.6%, which is lower than the growth rate in the past many years.
In the first half of 2019, U.S. industrial output and manufacturing output declined for two consecutive quarters. From January to October 2019, German manufacturing output fell by 5.7%. In 2019, Japan's manufacturing PMI showed a continuous decline, indicating that the economic contraction continued. Since 2019, the Federal Reserve has launched precautionary interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank has further cut interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve has limited space to cut interest rates, Japan and the European Central Bank have implemented negative interest rates, and the effect of quantitative easing policies tends to weaken. Both Europe and Japan are facing an aging population, and it is difficult to achieve growth recovery through technological cycles. It is also difficult to form a comparative advantage due to the relative lack of natural resource endowments.
Developing countries are also facing many uncertainties in the external environment, and their economic development is facing challenges. The Russian economy is growing at a low speed and lacks momentum. The growth rate in the first half of 2019 was 0.7%. India's economy has slowed down significantly, with growth falling to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2019. The outlook for economic growth is not optimistic. Growth in Latin America is generally weak and vulnerabilities are highlighted. Many countries have experienced currency depreciation, high inflation, stock market turmoil, and rising country risk indexes. Many African countries suffer from high unemployment, high inflation and high deficits.
2.Rapid developments such as alternative energy, energy efficiency improvement and green transformation are restraining w88 casino consumption demand
In recent years, the world economy has been generally stable, energy consumption has increased steadily, fossil energy consumption has continued to grow, and non-fossil energy consumption has grown rapidly, significantly faster than fossil energy.The energy consumption structure is further accelerating the transformation towards cleanliness and low-carbonization, the proportion of coal consumption has declined, and the proportion of natural gas and renewable energy consumption has increased. At the same time, countries around the world are strengthening energy conservation and economic restructuring,Energy utilization efficiency has been significantly improved, thereby inhibiting the growth of w88 casino consumption. The cost of clean energy, including photovoltaic, solar thermal, biomass power generation, onshore wind power, etc., continues to decrease. As technology advances and energy storage capacity continues to increase,The overall competitiveness of clean energy will be further enhanced。
Currently,The cost of newly installed renewable energy power generation in the EU is now lower than that of coal power. Although affected by negative factors such as the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the general trend of world energy transformation is difficult to change.Countries have launched plans to decoal electricity and ban the sale of fuel vehicles. as ofIn June 2017, there were 20 in the worldcountries or regions announced inTimetable for replacing coal power before 2030. Six states in the United States, including California and Massachusetts, have still clearly proposed 2020Coal power generation has been phased out successively; developing countries such as China and India have greatly reduced investment in new coal power generation. With the advancement of technology and the continuous increase of energy storage capacity, renewable energy in some countries has achieved market competitiveness without subsidies in the field of power generation. The Netherlands, Norway, Germany, France and other countries have successively introduced timetables for a complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, and China has also proposed to study the issue of bans on sales timetables. The sales ban policy releases strong expectations to society, greatly encourages the production of electric vehicles, promotes the transformation of the automobile industry, and becomes an important force in restraining the growth of w88 casino consumption demand.
3.Petroleum technology innovation capabilities continue to improve, the development of unconventional resources accelerates, and supply capabilities continue to improve
On the w88 casino supply side, for a long time“Peak w88 casino Theory”AND“Surge in demand theory”At the same time, it has always been an important basis to support the upward trend of international w88 casino prices. However, due to the technological revolution, the output of major w88 casino-producing countries has increased significantly, especially the increase in unconventional w88 casino production in the United States, giving birth to a new major w88 casino-producing country. In recent years, the approval of new w88 casino exploration projects around the world has accelerated, investment has further increased, new discoveries have been made, and w88 casino production has grown steadily. Petroleum exploration and development moves from land to ocean, from shallow sea to deep sea, and from conventional resources to unconventional resources. In terms of technological innovation, the United States performs most prominently. The shale technological revolution has led to the basic realization of the strategic goal of energy independence and changed the global energy supply and demand pattern,Shale w88 casino production has increased steadily and crude w88 casino production has increased significantly, which is the main source of non-OPEC w88 casino supply growth. Norway, Brazil, Guyana and other countries will become the successor to supply growth.
Short-term factors are the trigger: the new coronavirus epidemic triggers the spread of panic+Vienna League agreement aborted
1.The spread of the new coronavirus is faster and wider than expected
At the dawn of the New Year, the COVID-19 epidemic spread rapidly in China, which became the hardest-hit area. China began to launch a nationwide anti-epidemic war, paying huge economic and social costs, and achieved obvious results. It demonstrated the responsibility of a global power and was highly recognized by the World Health Organization. Just as China has achieved outstanding results in fighting the epidemic, unexpectedly, the epidemic is still spreading around the world. Japan is in emergency, South Korea is in emergency, and Singapore is in emergency. The virus continues to spread from East Asia to Southeast Asia, to South Asia, to the Middle East, Iran is in emergency, and then to Europe, Italy has become the hardest hit area. The current epidemic situation in the United States is not optimistic, and there is a high possibility of a full-scale outbreak. When the epidemic began to rage in China, although the international community was somewhat concerned about the spread of the epidemic, there was generally no panic. However, now that the epidemic continues to spread, the number of countries and regions affected by the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has exceeded 100, and the number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceededOver 100,000,People were shocked, and panic quickly spread.
2.Economic panic turns into something more terrifying“Virus”
The rapid spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic around the world has intensified investor panic, which is equivalent to adding fuel to the already pessimistic world economy and causing turmoil in the global financial market. When will this epidemic end? How much impact will it have on the global economy? Is there another global economic or financial crisis? These problems and worries make investors worry, even fear, and economic panic has evolved into a kind of“Virus”, continues to spread, triggering violent turmoil in the capital market, causing widespread suffering and chaos. The New York stock market in the United States plummeted one after another, the three major European stock indexes fluctuated downwards, the Tokyo stock market staged a roller coaster market, the stock indexes in various countries in the Middle East plummeted across the board, and stock markets around the world continued to hear news“fuse”Information, huge amounts of global capital evaporated instantly, and stampedes and crashes continued to occur. The capital market has always been a barometer of economic development and is very sensitive to economic trends. The fundamental reason why it is so fragile today is the lack of momentum for global economic growth, limited policy space, and high initial capital market valuations. Before the outbreak, the global economy was already experiencing sluggish growth, the Sino-US w88 war and the UK“Brexit”The prospects for economic growth are not optimistic. The rapid spread of the epidemic and the superposition of panic have intensified investors' pessimistic expectations. From the current point of view, the possibility of a global economic crisis and financial crisis has increased, and the global industrial chain and value chain may be restructured.
3.The unexpected abortion of the Vienna League Agreement became the direct trigger for the collapse of w88 casino prices
The Vienna Union mechanism is also called OPEC+The mechanism is a mechanism between OPEC and non-OPEC w88 casino-producing countries to limit crude w88 casino production and stabilize international w88 casino prices through cooperation. Vienna Union's previous w88 casino production reduction agreement will be in effectExpired at the end of March, industry insiders generally expect to sign a new agreement to further increase the scale of production cuts in response to the decline in w88 casino prices. However, unexpectedly, on March 6At the 8th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held in Vienna, Austria, the production reduction agreement was not reached as scheduled. After the negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia quickly launched action“Price war”, significantly reducing the price of crude w88 casino sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, and grabbing market share. At the same time as it cut prices, Saudi Arabia also privately stated that it would significantly increase crude w88 casino production if necessary.
Future changes in international w88 casino prices
International w88 casino price changes have always been complicated. Due to the complex and changeable influencing factors, price prediction has become an eternal theme. However, historically, w88 casino price prediction is similar to divination or fortune telling, and indeed no one can accurately judge. Nonetheless, we can still analyze the future trend of international w88 casino prices.
Short- and medium-term w88 casino price trends
Comprehensive analysis and consideration, the short and medium-term changes in w88 casino prices are closely related to factors such as the trend of the epidemic, global economic trends, geopolitics, and whether the Vienna Union mechanism is re-functioning. It is not ruled out that w88 casino prices will continue to fall, or even fallTo about 20 US dollars, but the overall trend is to fluctuate,Return in50-60USD is most likely, the chance of rising above $70 is very small.
1.The changing trend of the epidemic and its economic destructive power are still the focus of observation of w88 casino price trends
As the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic expands, the global economic prospects are facing a huge impact. In response to the spread of the epidemic, the International Monetary Fund once again lowered its global economic growth forecast,Estimated2020The annual global economic growth rate will be lower than2019year2.9%. The Organization for Economic Cooperation lowered the global economic growth rate from 2.9% to 2.4%, warning that the global economy may shrink. The finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven Western nations (G7) issued a joint statement saying they are ready to take action to support economic growth.Federal Reserve3month3Announced emergency interest rate cut50basis points。
The COVID-19 epidemic is raging around the world, seriously affecting economic operations, reducing demand for crude w88 casino, and increasing downward pressure on prices. At present, the epidemic is spreading increasingly violently, and it is difficult to accurately judge the extent of its impact on the global economy, but overall it is not optimistic. At present, the epidemic in China is basically under control, but it has not yet returned to normal. Italy, Japan, South Korea and Iran have completely fallen, and France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States may become more serious. At present, it seems that the future trend of the new crown epidemic, including whether it mutates, the scope of spread and the duration of the epidemic, is the most direct factor in observing changes in international w88 casino prices. As the epidemic evolves and even slows down, it will be conducive to a recovery in international w88 casino prices.
2.The economic performance and cooperation of major economies are key factors affecting w88 casino price trends
At present, the United States, China, the European Union and Japan are the pillars of global economic development, and other emerging economies such as India, Russia, Brazil and South Africa also play an important role. Among them, the United States and China are the engines and locomotives of global economic growth. If the economies of China and the United States are stable, then the global economy will have growth momentum. Stable industrial chains and value chains have been formed between these major economies in the world. We are among you, and you are among us.They have formed a close economic symbiotic relationship with each other. Once this relationship is broken or the value chain is destroyed, the global economy will suffer a heavy blow and impact. Before a new balance is established, the world will inevitably be in economic turmoil.
There are various contradictions between major economies in the world. The deterioration of Sino-US economic and w88 relations has already had a destructive effect on the world economy. The United States does have conflicts with China“Decoupling”'s wishes or thoughts, the friction between them is still in the present continuous tense. The EU has a clear trend of fragmentation, with the UK“Brexit”It has become one of the important variables in global economic development in the past few years, and the prospects for w88 negotiations between the two sides are still full of uncertainty. If the spread of the epidemic leads to a rapid global economic recession, an economic crisis, or even a financial crisis, then it is expected that major economies will strengthen cooperation, downplay mutual differences, downplay ideological conflicts, and work together to deal with common challenges. Otherwise, there will be no other way.As long as the economic performance of these major economies is good, especially the economic performance of the United States and China without major problems, I believe it will be beneficial to support the recovery of international w88 casino prices。
3.Geopolitical factors cannot be ignored
One of the important factors affecting international w88 casino prices is geopolitics. In the past few years, the reason why international w88 casino prices have not collapsed is because of the important role of the Vienna Union mechanism.Geopolitical factors have always played a very important role in supporting prices。
In recent years, the trend of geopolitical competition among major powers has been obvious, and the competition between the United States and China and Russia has become more intense. The United States advances in response to China's rise“Indo-Pacific Strategy”, disrupting the South China Sea issue, meddling in Hong Kong affairs, interfering in Taiwan politics, undermining social stability in Xinjiang and Tibet, sending more troops to the Indo-Pacific region, and wooing China's neighboring countries to form an anti-China alliance. The United States has long regarded Venezuela as an evil country and has been trying to overthrow the existing democratically elected regime. However, at the moment of crisis, Russia took decisive action and strongly supported the Maduro government, making the United States' attempt to achieve power fail. In the Middle East, there are conflicts between Arab countries and Israel, the Iranian nuclear issue, and wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Turkey has intervened in Syrian and Libyan affairs, and Russia has directly intervened in Middle East affairs, drawing closer relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries.
Geopolitics is becoming increasingly complex and changeable. Once there is any disturbance, the international w88 casino price will move accordingly. If there is a major geopolitical event, such as a war conflict between the United States and Iran, a direct conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, etc., then the international w88 casino price will rise rapidly.
4.Whether the Vienna Union comes back to life will directly affect changes in w88 casino prices
Historically, Saudi Arabia once became the only player in the international w88 casino market“Mobile w88 casino producing countries”, all-powerful, infinite scenery. However, today, the supply and demand pattern of the international w88 casino market has undergone tremendous changes. Russia has become one of the largest w88 casino producers, and the United States has also become a major w88 casino producer due to the shale revolution. There are three major w88 casino producers in the international w88 casino market“Mobile w88 casino producing countries”In a coexistence pattern, the w88 casino production capabilities of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia are basically equally divided. Theoretically, if these three major mobile w88 casino-producing countries can work together to control w88 casino production, then international w88 casino prices will change according to their wishes. However, due to different national systems and market mechanisms, it is impossible for the United States to take non-market actions to participate in the price alliance mechanism, while only Russia and Saudi Arabia can take non-market actions to establish a mechanism to stabilize w88 casino prices. Therefore, this mechanism itself is different from the OPEC price mechanism that historically monopolized the international w88 casino market, and has inherent flaws.
The trigger for this collapse in w88 casino prices is of course the failure of the Vienna Union mechanism, and major differences have arisen between the two most important countries in the mechanism, Saudi Arabia and Russia, it seems surprising, but there is also an inevitable logical relationship. The core is the conflict of interest, which includes the conflict of interest between the two countries, and the conflict of interest between the two countries and the United States. Russia did not agree to significantly increase production cuts in this negotiation. The reason is of course that it is unwilling to lose more market share. Due to past production restrictions and price guarantees, U.S. shale w88 casino has taken away a lot of market share. In this negotiation, many people in the industry seemed puzzled by Saudi Arabia's approach. They seemed to think that the young Saudi crown prince had personal loyalty and style. However, the logic behind it was also clear. That is, the production cuts in the past two years have increased w88 casino prices. The United States and Russia have squeezed Saudi Arabia's market share, so they are no longer willing to continue to sacrifice their own interests. However,Even if this negotiation breaks down, it does not mean that the Vienna League has come to an end. Whether it comes back to life depends on whether it can meet the national interests of the Alliance.。
The plunge in w88 casino prices to this point is definitely not in the interest of w88 casino-producing countries, so the key depends on how long this low w88 casino price can last, the patience and patience time of w88 casino-producing countries will ultimately determine whether everyone returns to the negotiating table. Although the direct cost of w88 casino production in w88 casino-producing countries is very low, their fiscal balance is highly dependent on w88 casino prices. In 2020, Saudi Arabia's current account balance w88 casino price was US$61/barrel, while Russia's was US$45/barrel. This shows that neither country can afford the long-term continuation of the current w88 casino price level.
5.International w88 casino companies’ production costs do not support long-term low w88 casino prices
It is estimated that the current w88 casino production cost of most large international w88 casino companies in the world exceeds US$45/barrel, and the cost of individual w88 casino companies may be even higher.If the current low w88 casino prices continue for a long time, most w88 casino companies will face huge losses, entering the "cold winter" again. Correspondingly, a large number of petroleum engineering and technical service companies will face the harsh situation of having no rice to cook, the entire petroleum industry will be unsustainable, and sustainable development will be impossible to talk about.
Long-term trends in w88 casino prices
From the long-term trend of international w88 casino prices, the focus should be on analyzing the changing trends of factors such as w88 casino substitution, w88 casino supply and demand, and w88 casino costs. Comprehensive analysis and judgment,The overall trend of international w88 casino prices is still cyclical fluctuations, and there will be violent fluctuations in the short term. The skyrocketing or plummeting situation may reappear, but the overall price level is difficult to return to the high level of more than 100 US dollars per barrel before the outbreak of the last financial crisis。
1.Energy transition determines the process of w88 casino substitution, and substitution cost becomes a constraint on changes in international w88 casino prices
In the face of global response to climate change and environmental governance, the trend of energy transformation will surely accelerate, with the core being the optimization and adjustment of energy structure,Non-fossil energy will gradually become the main energy source, and w88 casino substitution is inevitable, clean energy is growing rapidly, and the proportion of w88 casino in primary energy will gradually decrease. Of course, w88 casino prices are one of the important factors affecting the energy transition and substitution process. If w88 casino prices remain at ultra-low levels, it will affect the pace of energy transition. The higher the w88 casino price, the more conducive it is to energy transition and w88 casino substitution.
Throughout the energy transition process,Objectively, there is an implicit marginal price of w88 casino substitution, which is the marginal cost of other alternative energy sources. Theoretically, an alternative energy source can be economically viable only if its marginal cost is less than the alternative marginal price of w88 casino. As non-fossil energy development and utilization technology advances and scale effects increase, its marginal cost of substitution is declining year by year, thereby compressing the room for w88 casino price increases.
2.The peak of global w88 casino consumption is coming soon, and the situation of oversupply in the w88 casino market is difficult to change
From the supply side, due to the huge potential of unconventional w88 casino resources, obvious technological progress, and continuous increase in production capacity, non-OPEC w88 casino-producing countries have limited potential to increase production, while OPEC w88 casino-producing countries still have a large capacity to increase production. Generally speaking, there is no problem of insufficient capacity. From the demand side, the growth of consumer demand in major developed countries has basically remained stable, and demand in emerging market countries has generally grown steadily. China's demand growth will gradually slow down, and global w88 casino consumption is expected to peak in the next few years. therefore,Global w88 casino supply and demand will be in a long-term oversupply situation, which does not support rising w88 casino prices。
3.w88 casino cost factors remain the key factor in w88 casino price changes
For w88 casino costs, two basic concepts must be clarified: w88 casino production costs and w88 casino budget costs of resource countries.
w88 casino production cost is a concept at the enterprise level. If the price is lower than the production cost, the enterprise will operate at a loss. In theory, the enterprise should stop production. Since there are thousands of companies and they vary greatly, the cost of w88 casino production is also varied, so objectively there is an implicit marginal cost of w88 casino. Theoretically, w88 casino prices should not be lower than marginal cost. Generally speaking, the production cost of conventional w88 casino is relatively low, while the cost of unconventional w88 casino is higherThe marginal cost of w88 casino should exist in unconventional w88 casino production, and the international w88 casino price should be higher than the marginal cost of unconventional w88 casino。
The w88 casino budget cost of a resource country refers to the w88 casino budget price set by a resource country to meet the needs of the national fiscal budget. It has nothing to do with the production cost of the enterprise. If the w88 casino price is lower than this cost, then the country's financial situation will have problems, and the economy, society and people's livelihood will not be able to operate normally. This kind of financial budget cost is more common in resource countries where w88 casino is the basis of national finance. In recent years, due to technological advancement, the cost of unconventional w88 casino production has been declining year by year; as w88 casino resource countries accelerate their economic transformation, their w88 casino budget costs are also gradually declining. These changes are also not conducive to the rise in international w88 casino prices and have become a constraint on the rise in w88 casino prices.
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