At the moment of the epidemic, we should make internal and external improvements to lay a solid foundation for economic recovery
(Source: Guangming.com 2020-04-07)
In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic spread in more than 200 countries and regions, which had a huge economic and social impact on various countries. In order to explore the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the world economy and society, the response policies of emerging economies, and the trends and patterns of the world economy and society after COVID-19 is effectively controlled, the Shanghai Society of International w88 and the Shanghai World Economics Association Emerging Economies Professional Committee hosted a series of seminars, inviting experts and scholars to express their insights. Here are excerpts of relevant speeches by experts participating in the meeting for the benefit of readers.
Researcher Zhu Kunfu, Institute of Global Value Chain, w88 casino:
With the decline in global economic growth and the outbreak of globalization accumulation problems, the proportion of global value chains in the world economy has continued to decline in recent years, and is now far below the level before the financial crisis. Against this background, the outbreak of the epidemic has put the world economy into unprecedented difficulties in the short term, and restrictions on the flow of people and logistics have severely impacted global value chain activities. The development of the epidemic is clearly divided into two stages: before early March, the outbreak was mainly domestic, which had an impact on the domestic value chain and my country's upstream and downstream economies; after the first ten days of March, the outbreak was mainly overseas, which had an impact on the global value chain and had a serious impact on my country's export-oriented regions, industries and enterprises.
Based on the predictions of the economic impact of the epidemic by multiple international institutions, under the premise that the epidemic in the United States and Europe will be controlled by the end of the second quarter, the impact of foreign epidemics on the global value chain will far exceed that of the 2008 financial crisis. The global value chain will play an important role in the global economy. China's share in China will drop by about 40%, and China will not be immune. Global value chain activities will decrease by about 25% (about 2.8% of GDP). Export-oriented regions (such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc.) and industries (such as the textile and clothing industry and the electronic and electrical industry) will be severely affected. If the epidemic spreads further, it will have a devastating blow to the current global value chain.
While the epidemic has impacted my country’s industrial chain, it has also provided opportunities for my country’s industries to upgrade along the global value chain. First, the completeness of my country's industrial chain and its super-large scale advantages have been greatly reflected in the prevention and control of this epidemic. In response to the global outbreak of the epidemic, it has brought opportunities to the development of related industries in our country. Second, the performance of developed economies in this epidemic is in sharp contrast to the effectiveness of my country's epidemic prevention and control, which has brought opportunities for my country's industries to move up the global value chain. Third, the epidemic has accelerated the transformation of the global value chain into digital, intelligent and service-oriented. After the impact of the epidemic, it will be an important strategic opportunity for my country to develop a new layout of the global value chain.
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