(Yang Jun) Join hands to maintain global food security
(Source: "Guangming Daily" 2020-04-14 Page 07)
Yang Jun (painted by Guo Hongsong)
What is the main mechanism by which the COVID-19 epidemic affects global food supply and demand? What is the current domestic and international food supply and demand situation? Will it lead to serious shortages of domestic and foreign food supplies in the short, medium and long term? Recognizing these issues is of great significance to better ensuring food security at home and abroad and maintaining world economic stability and development.
Judging from the impact mechanism of the epidemic, the epidemic will suppress global food consumption, but the negative impact on food production will be relatively small. First, demand for food decreases due to falling incomes. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva said: The global economy will plunge sharply into negative growth in 2020, and per capita income will decline in 170 countries. Lower per capita income will reduce food consumption, including high value-added agricultural products such as meat, eggs and milk. Secondly, falling energy prices such as oil will inhibit the development of biofuels and reduce demand for specific agricultural products. The United States uses a large amount of corn, Brazil uses a large amount of sugar cane to produce biofuel ethanol, and the European Union uses a large amount of rapeseed to produce biodiesel. However, the slowdown in global economic growth has led to sharply lower energy prices. According to the IMF's monthly international primary product price data, the average prices of world oil and natural gas in March 2020 were 47% and 22% lower than in January 2020. The sharp drop in energy prices will inhibit the development of the bioenergy industry. According to the "Global Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Forecast" released by the United States Department of Agriculture on April 9, 2020, the corn used for fuel ethanol production in the United States will decrease by 10 million tons in 2020. Thirdly, the decline in petrochemical energy prices will help reduce the production costs of agricultural products and promote agricultural production. According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture, if the costs of fuel, fertilizers and pesticides closely related to petrochemical energy are calculated together, they account for approximately 25% to 34% of the production costs of food crops such as rice, wheat, corn and sorghum in the United States, which is a high proportion. In addition, agricultural production in the world's major agricultural producing countries is relatively scattered, with a high degree of mechanization and a low degree of population concentration. The impact of the epidemic on the agricultural production system is relatively weak. Finally, all countries attach great importance to agricultural production during the epidemic. “Food is the first necessity of the people”, and sufficient food supply is the basis for ensuring social stability and economic development. Therefore, after the outbreak, many countries introduced supportive policies to promote agricultural production.
Judging from the changes and forecasts of global food supply and demand, the basic pattern of global food supply and demand being basically balanced with a slight surplus will not change in the short term. According to data from the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other international institutions, global food production has grown steadily since 2012, with supply slightly higher than demand and inventories showing a growing trend; in 2019, global food inventories were near the maximum value in the past 10 years, and international food prices have also been at low levels and fluctuated for a long time. Due to the weak impact of the epidemic on agricultural production, many international institutions predict that global food production will still maintain a slight growth in 2020. However, as demand for food and industry alike is significantly suppressed, grain stocks will continue to climb. At present, changes in world agricultural product prices are basically consistent with the above judgment. According to the IMF's monthly international primary product price data, between January and March 2020, in addition to a 10% increase in rice prices, the prices of wheat, corn, soybeans and other agricultural products have decreased to varying degrees. In particular, edible vegetable oil, cotton, poultry meat, and aquatic products (salmon) have experienced extremely significant declines.
Judging from the domestic situation, my country's grain production has grown steadily, its reserves are sufficient, and it has sufficient capabilities to ensure national food security. At present, the epidemic in our country has been effectively controlled, and the negative impact of the epidemic on our country's food production has been limited. According to the "China Agricultural Outlook Report" released by the Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in April 2020, my country's grain output is expected to maintain a slight growth in 2020.
However, the epidemic has caused problems such as food transportation interruptions and panic food hoarding. Especially due to the w88 restrictions adopted by some countries and the hype of international speculative capital, there is the possibility of significant fluctuations in the price of some grains in the short term. Affected by w88 protection, the world's rice w88 volume is already very small. In addition, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are important rice producers and exporters in the world. The implementation of export restrictions will directly affect the international supply of rice. This is an important reason for the recent surge in rice prices. The surge in rice prices also directly threatens the food security of countries that rely on rice imports.
Therefore, it is urgent to establish a global food w88 promotion and information sharing mechanism. On the one hand, it solves the problem of logistics interruption and smoothes global grain circulation and w88; on the other hand, it strengthens global grain information sharing, promotes grain production and w88 cooperation between countries, stabilizes grain production and supply, avoids unnecessary food export restrictions, and curbs international grain speculation.
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