【Editor’s note]Since this year, global financial markets"Black swans" are flying frequently, the US stock market has been circuit breaker four times in 10 days, the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's "zero interest rate" is still lingering, and the global crude w88 casino games login market has been "falling and falling" one after another. “This week, I have witnessed history every day.” On April 20, local time, the settlement price of U.S. WTI (West Texas Light Intermediate) crude w88 casino games login futures in May plummeted 305.97% to close at -$37.63 per barrel. This is the first time in history that w88 casino games login futures have fallen into negative numbers since they began trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983. As many scholars at home and abroad conduct increasingly in-depth discussions, more questions about the collapse of w88 casino games login prices have slowly surfaced.
Why did international crude w88 casino games login futures fall so hard this time?What does the emergence of “negative w88 casino games login prices” mean for the global crude w88 casino games login market? Is this a precursor to a global economic crisis? Will domestic w88 casino games login prices be affected by this? What impact will it have on our country's economy? Recently,Professor Dong Xiucheng, professor at the w88 casino of International Business and Economics at the w88 casino, researcher at the Institute for Opening up, and director of the Belt and Road Energy w88 and Development Research CenterPassedCCTV-4's "Today's Attention" column, "Economic Daily", "Beijing Daily", "Shanghai Securities News", Phoenix.com, Sohu Think Tank and other media have spoken out to analyze the logical relationship behind the plummeting international w88 casino games login prices.
Crude w88 casino games login prices surge overnight“Negative” means “a shocking event”
Dong Xiucheng believes that international crude w88 casino games login prices skyrocketed overnight“Negative” is a “shocking big event”. It is the first time it has happened since the establishment of the w88 casino games login futures market. It will definitely remain in the memory of the history of the world w88 casino games login market and has iconic significance.
Dong Xiucheng’s analysis, why the w88 casino games login price plummeted this timeMain FeaturesThere is a problem on the w88 casino games login consumer side. In other words, while supply capacity remains unchanged, consumer demand has experienced a cliff-like decline. To truly solve the problem, it is impossible to rely solely on supply-side production cuts.OPEC+ production reduction agreementDa成天天The scale of production reduction of 6.7 million barrels is the first time in history, but it is still difficult to make up for the rapid decline in consumption every dayWith a scale of more than 20 million barrels, the serious imbalance between supply and demand has not fundamentally changed, so it is impossible for w88 casino games login prices to truly rebound to the level before the outbreak. He said that this drop in w88 casino games login prices to negative numbers is actually a continuation of the recent plunge in w88 casino games login prices, which fully reflects the reality of the serious imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. w88 casino games login and gas market. Regarding the reasons for the emergence of "negative w88 casino games login prices" this time, Dong Xiucheng also said that the futures market itself belongs to the financial category, and the entities engaged in crude w88 casino games login trading activities on the exchange mainly include two categories:Entity enterprises and financial institutions. There are differences in the functions of these two types of companies in exchange transactions. That is to say, w88 casino games login sellers may not have w88 casino games login in their hands, while w88 casino games login buyers may not need w88 casino games login. Entity companies mainly focus on hedging, while financial institutions mainly focus on speculation. According to the rules of futures contracts on the exchange, delivery or settlement must be made after expiration. For traders who hold futures contracts but do not really want to obtain w88 casino games login, they will always sell the contract before the delivery date. Otherwise, once the w88 casino games login is held in their hands, they will face the trouble of how to dispose of the physical w88 casino games login. Under the current market conditions, if you have an expired crude w88 casino games login contract that cannot be sold, and the inventory cost remains high, you will suffer huge losses, so you will ship the contract at all costs. Under this difficult choice of choosing the lesser of two evils and minimizing losses, such seemingly absurd events occurred.
The rise of major crude w88 casino games login exporting countries"Crude w88 casino games login price war"
Dong Xiucheng believes that the factors affecting w88 casino games login prices can generally be divided into two categories:Long-term factors and short-term factors。Long-term factorsIncluding world w88 casino games login reserves, world w88 casino games login production, w88 casino games login costs, world economic growth, alternative energy, energy efficiency, low-carbon policies and environmental awareness.Short-term factorsIncluding major geopolitical events, major sudden natural or social disasters, financial factors and w88 casino games login inventories. This collapse in w88 casino games login prices is the result of a combination of complex factors.The interweaving of long-term factors and short-term factors, the imbalance of supply and demand and the superposition of major emergencies, and the integration of political factors and economic factors have constituted the main characteristics of the recent collapse in w88 casino games login prices.
Dong Xiucheng’s analysis, this yearOn March 6, after the negotiation between OPEC+ and Russia on further production restrictions broke down, Saudi Arabia subsequently launched a unilateral "price war", and the price of Brent crude w88 casino games login fell below US$25 per barrel in less than two weeks; on April 2, Trump claimed on Twitter that Saudi Arabia and Russia is expected to reach an agreement to reduce production, ending the public opinion of this w88 casino games login "price war". The price of Brent crude w88 casino games login once jumped to 36.29 US dollars per barrel. In the end, OPEC, Russia and other w88 casino games login-producing countries reached an agreement to reduce production, agreeing to cut global supply by 10% in order to support w88 casino games login prices during the COVID-19 epidemic. This "crude w88 casino games login price war" is a struggle between Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, which directly led to the existence of "OPEC" in name only. Historically, OPEC, the official organization, has low credibility in the implementation of production cuts, coupled with the lack of supervision mechanisms and the inherent shortcomings of the informal organization mechanism of ‘OPEC+’. At present, although all parties have initially reached an agreement to reduce production, the implementation of the agreement and the subsequent rebound in w88 casino games login prices still deserve attention.
This first time in history should be viewed rationally“Negative w88 casino games login Price”
w88 casino games login is the basic energy source, currently"Negative w88 casino games login prices" are a historic moment in any case, and how to rationally view and respond to them is of great importance. Dong Xiucheng analyzed that "negative w88 casino games login prices" are determined by the specific trading form of the futures market and are somewhat extreme. There are two major groups of people in futures exchanges: One part is companies engaged in the real economy, which use the futures market to carry out hedging transactions. The other part is financial institutions, which are not only engaged in investment, but also have a certain degree of speculation.
Currently, it has fallen sharply and closed in negative numbersWTI crude w88 casino games login May contract will be delivered on April 21, local time in the United States. The contract for delivery in May is about to expire, and traders are forced to close their positions to avoid buying spot crude w88 casino games login without inventory capacity, which puts pressure on w88 casino games login prices. However, the current COVID-19 epidemic in the United States has triggered a significant reduction in market demand, and early w88 casino games login inventories are almost saturated. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude w88 casino games login inventories have increased for 12 consecutive weeks and have climbed to a new high in nearly three years.
During the epidemic, it is said that dairy farmers in the United States have to dump milk at least every day14 tons of milk. However, crude w88 casino games login is different from products such as milk. The buyer must find an w88 casino games login storage warehouse to store it and cannot dispose of it at will, otherwise he will face high environmental fines. "Therefore, when inventories surge and storage costs rise sharply, some financial institutions holding May contracts will close their positions at any cost, leading to extreme 'negative w88 casino games login prices.'" Dong Xiucheng said.
The impact of plummeting w88 casino games login prices on the global economy
The crude w88 casino games login market continues to collapse, and the crude w88 casino games login spot that is about to be delivered has become a hot topic among tradersThe existence of "hot potato",This situation also reflects the market’s deep-seated concerns about the operation of the global economy.Dong Xiucheng said frankly that the sharp drop in w88 casino games login prices indicates that investors are not optimistic about the future economic development trend, have serious lack of confidence or are extremely pessimistic, and are even worried that the global economy may gradually turn from recession to depression, worrying about the last centuryA repeat of the global economic depression of the 1930s. He pointed out,The plunge in w88 casino games login prices actually means that in the futures market"Severe losses of part of financial capital" or "evaporation of financial assets" will definitely intensify the turmoil in the capital market. ”
“The plunge in w88 casino games login prices has triggered the collapse of the U.S. shale w88 casino games login and gas industry, which is backed by a huge capital market. A large number of shale w88 casino games login and gas companies may be unable to repay due to the maturity of huge debts, resulting in a serious break in the corporate capital chain, which will directly impact the capital market.” Dong Xiucheng said, "The plunge in w88 casino games login prices may cause financial crises for w88 casino games login resource countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. These resource countries may sell petrodollar assets, allowing huge petrodollars to flow back to their countries, which will lead to a liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial market."
w88 casino games login prices, like the capital market, have always been an economic barometer, and its changes reflect the changing trends of the economic situation. This is an objective fact.The occurrence of this incident is enough to make us realize that the oversupply situation in the global w88 casino games login market is indeed very serious. Consumption has declined rapidly due to the spread of the epidemic. If it lasts longer, the w88 casino games login and gas market situation will become more uncertain, which requires great attention from countries around the world and measures must be taken to deal with it. Whether it is an w88 casino games login and gas resource country or an w88 casino games login and gas consumer country, this w88 casino games login price situation is actually not good, and no country can be immune to it.
Impact on the domestic refined w88 casino games login market
The phenomenon of "negative w88 casino games login prices" reflects the market's pessimism about the economic prospects. Although low w88 casino games login prices are beneficial to reducing my country's economic operating costs, they have a greater impact on the production, operations and profitability of central petroleum and petrochemical enterprises.
Does the plummeting price mean a bargain-hunting opportunity?Dong Xiucheng believes that China is a major w88 casino games login importer and is highly dependent on foreign w88 casino games login. From the perspective of balancing international expenditures and curbing inflation, the advantages of low w88 casino games login prices outweigh the disadvantages. data display,In 2019, my country's crude w88 casino games login import volume was 505.72 million tons, an increase of 9.5%, and its dependence on foreign w88 casino games login was as high as 70.8%. For this reason, when international w88 casino games login prices have plummeted since this year, it is a wise choice to drive a tanker to buy w88 casino games login abroad. Dong Xiucheng also said that this extreme situation reflects the market's pessimism about the future. "However, if the international financial market is further turbulent, it will also have a certain impact on the Chinese economy." Dong Xiucheng said that at present, we should pay close attention to the trends of global financial markets and remain sufficiently vigilant.
Domestic refined w88 casino games login prices will not be adjusted.What impact will the international w88 casino games login price be so low on domestic w88 casino games login companies?On April 20, Peng Huagang, spokesperson of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, stated at a press conference on the economic operations of central enterprises in the first quarter that although low w88 casino games login prices are beneficial to reducing my country’s economic operating costs, they will have a greater impact on the production, operation and efficiency of central petroleum and petrochemical enterprises, resulting in substantial profit reductions. On April 28, domestic refined w88 casino games login reached the price adjustment window again. However, according to the current refined w88 casino games login price policy, when the international crude w88 casino games login price is lower than 40 US dollars per barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel will not be reduced. Therefore, when the recent w88 casino games login price is basically below 40 US dollars, domestic refined w88 casino games login prices will not be adjusted.
It is understood that in the first quarter due to the decline in domestic demand, my country’s refined w88 casino games login sales dropped by more than20%, the income cost of exploration, refining and other businesses has been inverted, resulting in overall losses for petroleum and petrochemical companies. Relevant experts said that although most of my country's petroleum companies currently implement integrated operations, the decline in w88 casino games login prices has a greater impact on the upstream exploration business; at the same time, the costs of downstream refining and chemical products have also dropped, which can relatively balance the overall benefits. However, considering that the current chemical product market is not prosperous and the two-phase squeeze will still have a greater impact on petroleum companies. Relatively speaking, PetroChina is most affected by the decline in w88 casino games login prices because of its large proportion of exploration business; CNOOC is second; Sinopec is slightly less affected because of its large downstream chemical business. The overall w88 casino games login situation this year is not optimistic, and the w88 casino games login sources are also diversified. PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, plus some independent battlefields, price war competition is inevitable this year, and may further intensify.
What impact will the downturn in international w88 casino games login prices have on the domestic refined w88 casino games login market? Can we buy ultra-low-price refined w88 casino games login at gas stations?According to the "Petroleum Price Management Measures", the average price of international crude w88 casino games login to which my country's refined w88 casino games login prices are linked is lower thanWhen the "floor price" reaches US$40/barrel, domestic w88 casino games login prices will not be adjusted. The unadjusted portion will be turned over in full to the central treasury in accordance with regulations and will be included in general public budget management. Previously, on April 15, as the average international crude w88 casino games login price was below the "floor price" of US$40/barrel, domestic w88 casino games login prices were not adjusted. A new round of domestic refined w88 casino games login price adjustment window will open on April 28 (next Tuesday), and it is expected that this round will also trigger the protection mechanism without making adjustments.
On April 23, the official Douyin short video platform of the w88 casino broadcast live an online course taught by Professor Dong Xiucheng - The Logical Relationship Behind the Plunge in International Oil Prices. Professor Dong made a profound analysis of the causes and process of the collapse of oil prices and its impact on the world and Chinese economies.“Negative value”The secret behind it. The live broadcast lasted 80 minutes, and nearly 7,000 people entered the live broadcast room to watch.
(Organized by: Liu Haijun, Chen Huan)
