Dong Xiucheng: The anti-globalization trend in the international oil market is forming

(Source: "China Chemical Industry News" 2020-08-04)

Editor's note At the "China Energy·Chemical Industry 30 Forum" initiated and established by China Chemical Industry News on July 31, nearly 30 high-end think tanks and entrepreneur representatives from the petroleum and chemical industry conducted a three-dimensional and in-depth discussion around the theme of "Changes and Adaptations of China's Energy and Chemical Industry in the Post-Epidemic Era", presenting a nutritious feast of ideas.

Professor Dong Xiucheng, w88 casino of International Economics and w88, w88 casino:International oil has three major attributes: strategic, economic and financial, which determine the complexity of international oil prices. International oil price fluctuations are normal and are closely related to the invisible hand (market power) and visible hand (administrative power), major geopolitical and economic events, global economic cycles and financial markets. At present, OPEC+ and the United States have formed a "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" pattern in the international oil market. The international oil market has formed a trend of anti-globalization, and the influence of the RMB in the international oil market has gradually increased.

To predict the trend of international oil prices, epidemic control is the prerequisite, economic recovery is the key, and geopolitics is the focus. It is expected that the OPEC+ production reduction agreement will be flexibly adjusted to ensure that international oil prices do not become too low. Regardless of the epidemic, major economies will gradually open up their economies and strike a difficult balance between epidemic prevention and control and economic opening. As capital investment decreases and pressure to increase reserves and production increases, weak production capacity growth will gradually emerge. Global geopolitics continues to be turbulent, but large-scale, disruptive, and fatal events are unlikely to occur. It is a high probability that the international oil price fluctuates between 40 and 50 US dollars per barrel. Of course, it is also possible to exceed 50 US dollars per barrel and remain volatile at 50 to 60 US dollars per barrel. If a major geopolitical event breaks out, oil prices may surge in the short term, but the duration will end as the event eases.

Attached original text link:

http://m.ccin.com.cn/#/news/detail?id=267075&type=news