It has been half a month since U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen returned from her visit to China, but her criticism of China's production capacity problems has not stopped. In an interview with the American Public Media (APM) economic radio program "Marketplace" on May 9, Yellen once again talked about "China's overcapacity theory" and even pointed out nakedly:
For important strategic areas such as clean energy, electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable energy, "w88 online live casino will very clearly target investment subsidies in these areas, but we do not want to see China provide large subsidies to these companies, which will bankrupt our companies."
In response, Hua Chunying, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, “translated” on the social media “X” on May 13, breaking through the double standards behind “American logic.”
Hua Chunying responded by posting on "X": "Translate (Yellen's words): We (w88 online live casino) will use subsidies to support American industries because it is strategic, but when others do this, it is unfair competition."
In addition to the public opinion offensive, the United States has also used practical actions to block the development of China's emerging industries. The U.S. government and Congress have continued to make small moves in areas such as Section 301 investigations, tariffs, and the TikTok bill. On May 14, local time, the United States announced that it would further increase tariffs on electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, key minerals, semiconductors, steel and aluminum, port cranes, personal protective equipment and other products imported from China on the basis of the original Section 301 tariffs on China. China-US economic and w88 relations have once again encountered obstacles.
Recently, regarding the recent economic and w88 strategies adopted by the United States and the response measures that Chinese companies should take when facing external risks, Observer Network andProfessor Tu Xinquan, Dean of the China WTO Research Institute at the w88 casinoIn-depth communication was carried out.
[Text/Observer.com Tang Xiaofu]
Observer Network: Hello, Professor Tu, we have noticed that w88 online live casino has recently taken continuous legal actions against Chinese companies. Let’s start with what sparked a huge discussion in the past few daysTikTokSpeaking of the bill. This bill basically inherits the previous bill passed by the House of RepresentativesH.R.7521Bill on mandatory divestitureTikTok6761_6812100Internet business and other regulations for 10,000 users. Once this bill becomes law, how do you think it will impact the business of Chinese Internet companies in w88 online live casino?
Tu Xinquan:TikTok was launched in May 2017. It has attracted so much attention in just a few years, which is related to the general trend of Sino-US relations.
TikTok, as a social media, is the only social media application with global influence among all social media applications developed in China. This is different from other applications produced in China. It is precisely because of the rapid rise of this social application that it attracted early attention in w88 online live casino. So during Trump's term as president in 2020, many forces tried to take action against TikTok.
From my personal understanding, TikTok is a relatively new special issue in the field of Sino-US relations. It is not an economic and w88 issue, nor is it a w88 friction issue derived from economy and w88, but a concrete manifestation of the struggle between China and the United States for global influence.
w88 online live casino is not worried about Western media reports, because it can control the internal operating logic of Western media and then control the orientation of their reports. However, as a social application developed by a Chinese company, TikTok is different from Western media and Western APPs in terms of its internal business logic and algorithms. TikTok respects freedom of speech more than traditional Western media and social applications. At the same time, TikTok, as a very successful short video media platform, has also led the global short video trend. Therefore, relevant personnel in w88 online live casino were shocked by the impact of TikTok's explosive growth, and were very worried that TikTok would take away its control over public opinion and its influence on society.
This time the conflict between Palestine and Israel has undoubtedly intensified and even confirmed the concerns of relevant personnel. We can see that since the beginning of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict last year, some U.S. congressmen have accused TikTok, claiming that the social media platform has manipulated young people's support for Palestine through its recommendation algorithm.
Although this is not the only factor in promoting the TikTok bill in w88 online live casino, I think it is the most important factor that has recently contributed to the US government and political elites forming a consensus to take measures against TikTok. In comparison, other factors such as how much money TikTok makes in w88 online live casino are secondary. So although the bill mentions that it can be applied to other social media, TikTok still has its own particularities.
Observer Network: We can see that w88 online live casino has begun to oppose the Trump eraTikTok’s strangulation, the U.S. Congress had previously proposed state inclusionS.686Various matters including billsTikTokWaiting for the bill for Chinese assets in w88 online live casino, but why?2024Will the two parties pass relevant bills so quickly before the official start of the 2020 presidential campaign?
Tu Xinquan:This round of controversy over TikTok has been brewing in Congress for several months. An important factor in passing the bill now is the election.
In the past year, relations between China and w88 online live casino have relatively eased. Recently, there are many factors that are not conducive to their election, so Biden and the Democratic Party are trying to use a tough approach towards China to boost the election. Promoting a series of measures such as the new Section 301 investigation and new steel and aluminum tariffs are all ways they can demonstrate their tough attitude towards China to voters. However, the final impact of this tough signal needs further observation. For example, it will be difficult for this round of 301 investigation to be completely completed before the end of this election.
On the other hand, many politicians have recently blamed TikTok for spreading misinformation in American universities’ support for Palestinian demonstrations and the subsequent escalation of conflicts. This has clarified the political need to control public opinion on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In this context, both President Biden and members of Congress are considering a package of relevant bills out of their own electoral needs. Advancing relevant bills can be seen as an attempt to shape a better public opinion environment for themselves.
It must be pointed out that the legal action in w88 online live casino to quickly pass the bill to divest TikTok is not without disagreement. Previously, some members of Congress cited the First Amendment and other bills to try to prevent the passage of H.R. 7521, and some senators even tried to propose alternative bills to slow down the pace of relevant legislation. But this time, because the divestment bill bundled the aid bill for Israel and Ukraine, the latest H.R. 3038 bill was passed very quickly.
Observer Network:4month17On Japan, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it will promote shipbuilding in China301Investigate and plan for China’s steel and aluminum products301Tariffs increased to existing levels3Times, why is the US Department of Commerce accelerating its policy on China during Yellen and Blinken’s visit to China301Investigate and raise tariffs? How much impact will such investigations and tariffs have on related industries in my country?
Tu Xinquan:I haven’t done much research on the issue of new investigations and tariffs being raised during visits by senior officials. But at this stage, U.S. diplomacy is in a relatively delicate state. On the one hand, the U.S. government still hopes to at least maintain communication with China, control tensions between the two sides, and avoid uncontrollable conflicts. On the other hand, it will continue to try to control and suppress China's technology. Although these two points are contradictory on the surface, they are consistent internally.
The current U.S. government has a lot of troubles. The Russia-Ukraine war, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and its derived domestic political divisions, and the U.S. domestic economy are all impacting the domestic political ecology of w88 online live casino. This forces w88 online live casino to try to control the pace and intensity of suppression and decoupling while not wanting to change its strategy of suppressing and decoupling China. We do not want to have too many direct and fierce confrontations with our country in a short period of time.
Specifically regarding the 301 investigation and steel and aluminum tariffs. Judging from general experience, the 301 investigation by the Ministry of Commerce will last for more than one year. The issues involved in this type of investigation are relatively complex. While it can be expedited, even if it is expedited, I expect it is unlikely that a result will be produced before the election. So this is more of an electoral consideration, allowing voters to realize that he has taken new measures against China during his tenure.
Steel and aluminum tariffs are a legacy issue that has existed since Trump was in office. On February 16, 2018, former U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross conducted an investigation into the national security impact of China’s steel and aluminum products in accordance with Section 232 of the w88 Expansion Act of 1962. This resulted in the U.S. government imposing the first round of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products on March 23, 2018, with tax rates of 25% and 10% respectively, amounting to US$3 billion. Afterwards, the United States made some adjustments to the tariff details on imported steel and aluminum products, especially the list of countries subject to steel and aluminum tariffs. The final adjusted version of the tariff details was implemented in May 2019.
According to "Section 301", four years after the first imposition of tariffs, relevant departments must conduct a review process for the implementation of these tariffs. So in theory, current w88 Representative Dai Qi was supposed to conclude her review of Trump-era steel and aluminum product tariffs by the end of 2023, but she has never completed it before. This has also caused dissatisfaction among some domestic forces in the United States. The White House mentioned in the so-called "list of facts" regarding this round of steel and aluminum tariff adjustments that five labor unions submitted petitions to the U.S. w88 Representative on this matter, putting pressure on and demanding accelerated review.
Regarding this tariff adjustment, the White House stated that the current average tariff imposed by w88 online live casino on some steel and aluminum products is 7.5%. Relevant news reports mentioned that a US government official revealed that Biden plans to increase this number to 25% this time. The core purpose of this partial adjustment is to show voters a tough stance on China in sunset industries so that voters in swing states can support the Democratic Party during the election season.
Based on the current public information, I think the final scale of this adjustment will not be too large, and since China’s steel and aluminum exports to w88 online live casino account for a small proportion of China’s total exports, the impact on us will be limited.
Observer Network: From the perspective of recent visits to China by senior U.S. officials and adjustments to U.S. w88 policies, U.S. policies have become somewhat forward-thinking and contradictory. Do you think this reflects an out-of-control rhythm in the execution of the U.S. strategy toward China?
Tu Xinquan:There are some contradictions in w88 online live casino' current policy toward China. On the one hand, the design of its China policy not only needs to consider the bilateral relations between China and w88 online live casino, but also needs to measure the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the domestic conflicts in w88 online live casino on the US election. On the other hand, the relationship between China and w88 online live casino has a great impact on domestic interest groups in w88 online live casino.
For example, on the issue of semiconductor export controls, w88 online live casino is frequently adjusting relevant standards and constantly making controls more stringent. This reflects the ambivalent mentality of w88 online live casino. On the one hand, some American suppliers do not want to be so strict that they will lose the Chinese market. On the other hand, China's rapid development in the semiconductor field and AI field is challenging w88 online live casino' position in related fields. The need to dynamically balance the contradictions between the two aspects forces the U.S. policymaking department to continuously adjust relevant policies, so the rhythm seems chaotic.
In terms of diplomacy with China and conflict management, I don’t think the United States is chaotic. In recent years, Yellen and others have visited China frequently. On the surface, they seem to be trying to ease Sino-US relations, but in fact they may be preparing for a wider decoupling. On the one hand, the United States is trying to stabilize China through diplomatic means and prevent China from overreacting. On the other hand, the United States is actually constantly suppressing China. This approach not only has the appearance of easing diplomacy, but also actually promotes w88 suppression against China, thus forming a complex diplomatic situation.
Observer Network: For a long time, China’s merchandise w88 with the United States has made a huge contribution to the United States’ suppression of domestic inflation. However, recently, U.S. inflation data has rebounded beyond expectations, and the United States has stepped up its efforts at this time.301Do investigations and tariffs have a negative impact on the U.S. economy?
Tu Xinquan:The latest round of Section 301 investigation has just been launched. It takes time from launching the investigation to determining the tariffs and finally having an impact on the economy. After all, the economy is not finance, and its transmission cycle will last several months or even a year. Therefore, the current relevant surveys do not have much direct relevance to the economic situation.
Judging from available data, the U.S. shipbuilding industry accounts for less than 0.1% of the global market. In the first two months of this year, my country's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and orders on hand accounted for 56.5%, 69.5%, and 56.1% of the world market share respectively. Therefore, the impact of the Section 301 investigation initiated by w88 online live casino on my country's shipbuilding industry needs to be further observed after the detailed rules are promulgated and combined with market reaction.
Observer Network: We noticed that you are here“2023Tsinghua PBC Global Financial Forum”It is said that the biggest challenge facing international w88 is undoubtedly the increasingly intensified strategic game between China and the United States. In particular, the United States increasingly views Sino-US economic and w88 relations from the perspective of national security rather than commercial interests. I would like to ask Professor Tu, can this w88 protectionist approach by the United States achieve its imagined national security goals? Why?
Tu Xinquan:It depends on how Americans define its purpose. Domestic scholars in the United States have previously studied the w88 war with China during Trump’s term. One conclusion is that Trump’s w88 war has not had a positive effect on the domestic economic and industrial development of the United States.
From the perspective of the United States, the w88 war with China not only aims to achieve U.S. economic development, but also suppresses China's economic development and makes China's growth slower. For example, the core of the U.S. manufacturing reshoring strategy is not to move all industries back to the United States, but to move industries away from China. They regard it as an economic policy based on the goals of national security and major power competition. From the perspective of economic rationality, it is very harmful to others and not self-interested.
But from a results perspective, we are not sure what the specific impact of the current U.S. policy will be. Economic development is affected by many factors, and U.S. policy is not the only influencing factor.
At the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult for w88 online live casino to achieve its national security goals. For example, the Russia-Ukraine war is gradually out of the control of w88 online live casino.
In response to the rise of China, w88 online live casino has been trying to recruit allies to contain China, which has indeed put a certain amount of pressure on us. However, we are promoting relevant strategies in response to U.S. policies. It is not yet known who will win in the Sino-US game.
Observer Network:TikTokWhat happened to Chinese companies reminds me of Pierucci’s description of Alstom and his own fate in "The American Trap". From bill to tariff to useWTORules, w88 online live casino has used almost all means to target Chinese companies. In your opinion, are Chinese companies also encountering problems similar to Alstom“American Trap”？
Tu Xinquan:I think we are in a more difficult situation than Alstom. France is an ally of w88 online live casino, but China is not. Therefore, the external environment faced by Chinese companies in w88 online live casino is more severe than that of French companies.
In fact, domestic companies were somewhat prepared for the bottomless behavior of w88 online live casino. For example, Huawei had already anticipated the relevant risks and chose to allow Meng Wanzhou to transit in Canada instead of w88 online live casino. But I never thought that relevant parties in w88 online live casino would still force Canada to detain Meng Wanzhou. After the Meng Wanzhou incident, our wariness towards w88 online live casino has risen to another level. Therefore, executives of important Chinese companies now rarely arrange trips related to w88 online live casino.
Compared with France, Germany, and Japan, which have been economic competitors of w88 online live casino since the Cold War, we have greater independence, which is also our advantage when facing w88 online live casino.
When w88 online live casino launched a Section 301 investigation against us and suppressed us based on Section 232 a few years ago, we took countermeasures. China is an independent country, and the Chinese government has the ability to provide strong support and protection to Chinese enterprises. Although this kind of counterattack also comes at a cost, this kind of political independence enables us as a whole to resist these unreasonable and illegal demands no matter when facing pressure or threats from w88 online live casino.
Observer Network: For w88 online live casino to use various bills, tariffs andWTORegulations are suppressing our companies. What methods do you think Chinese companies should use to resist this suppression and minimize their own losses?
Tu Xinquan:To be honest, I can't give general and simple suggestions. However, the experience in recent years shows that when Chinese companies face relevant risks, their overall performance appears to be very experienced and flexible.
After the Trump era imposed additional tariffs, although my country's exports to the United States were temporarily affected, the overall situation remained stable and even hit a record high in w88 surplus. This not only exceeded the expectations of us experts and scholars, but also exceeded the expectations of everyone, including the U.S. government and scholars. No one had thought that China's export companies were so resilient and could maintain export stability despite a surge in tariffs from 3% to 20%.
Although the government has assisted enterprises in exporting in some auxiliary aspects and reduced some losses, the relevant achievements should be mainly attributed to the enterprises' own high competitiveness and their flexible strategies in dealing with relevant w88 restrictions.
In recent years, six to seven hundred Chinese companies have been included on the U.S. Entity List. Among them, Huawei, the most representative, has been suppressed by w88 online live casino in all aspects and with the full force of the country. However, relevant companies are still fighting hard and are reborn from the ashes. For example, Huawei, after several years of suppression, has emerged from the trough and is returning to the top of the world thanks to its corporate heritage of continuous self-improvement and the support of Chinese companies. It can be said that Chinese companies can break through the siege. This tenacious spirit from the business community is very important.
China’s smartphone market share in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024 Image source: Counterpoint
I mentioned before that the advantage of our country lies in its insistence on independence and its refusal to admit defeat. This is the most important thing.
But this alone is not enough, we need to study strategies. In the early years, our country had closer relations with Western developed countries. But the United States is taking the initiative to decouple from us and is trying to get Europe to decouple from us as well. In today's international and harsh U.S. domestic policy environment, the United States is becoming a high-risk destination for my country's w88. This means that regardless of the import and export w88 between China and the United States, or the exchange of technical personnel, related exchanges are in a high-risk state. In this context, it is a foregone conclusion to follow the trend and reduce various cooperative relations with the United States, including w88, investment, and personnel exchanges. This is also a reality that Chinese companies cannot choose.
In the context that our country has to decouple from the United States, President Xi Jinping’s proposal of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative was very prescient. In September 2013, President Xi Jinping proposed the “One Belt, One Road” initiative for the first time, and upgraded it to a national strategy at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November of the same year. This allowed our country to be strategically prepared in advance when a w88 war broke out in 2017. It also laid the policy and international political foundation for the diversification of the industrial and commercial layout of Chinese enterprises.
In the past ten years, our country has invested more and more in investment, w88 and other aspects along the "Belt and Road" direction, and has gained more and more benefits. This enables our country to expand w88 and achieve cooperation in production capacity and infrastructure construction with more "Belt and Road" co-building countries while reducing political and economic risks. While strengthening w88 relations with more trading partners and promoting their economic development, our country can also better solve its own political and economic security needs.
From a w88 perspective, the proportion of my country’s exports to countries co-building the “Belt and Road” is rising rapidly, while the proportion of China’s exports to the G7 is declining rapidly. Although our adjustment is more of a passive reaction to adapt to changes in external conditions, in terms of results, my country's adjustment will promote the multipolarity and diversification of the world and help my country become a global economic power.
From a business perspective, investing in “One Belt, One Road” projects is also better for the company’s future development. Because although developing countries have greater risks, investment and w88 may also yield higher returns and profit margins.
Generally speaking, in this era, when Chinese companies invest in developing countries, the risks caused by domestic government capabilities or domestic politics will be greater, but the international political risks may be lower. When Chinese companies invest in developed countries, the international political risks will be higher, while the risks caused by domestic government capabilities or domestic politics will be lower. In the context of today's Sino-U.S. relations, compared with continuing to invest in U.S. industries, the overall risk of investing in developing countries may be the same or lower.
In general, the future development strategy of my country's enterprises will have a decision-making process, but from the perspective of national strategy, the focus of my country's future foreign economic strategy will undoubtedly shift to developing countries.
Observer Network: Last question, Professor Tu, what do you think of the future economic and w88 development trends between China and the United States?
Tu Xinquan:The development trend of Sino-US economic and w88 relations has been very clear, which is to continue to deepen and expand decoupling. Today, the U.S. economy still accounts for about 25% of the world’s GDP, far more than any other country among the “Belt and Road” countries. Therefore, from an absolute perspective, my country's dependence on the United States and the United States' dependence on us are still huge in terms of w88, investment, personnel exchanges, and scientific and technological exchanges.
This means that we must pay attention to the situation in w88 online live casino, our exchanges with w88 online live casino, and the control of risks and conflicts. Our government and enterprises are also working hard to stabilize Sino-US relations as much as possible. But structurally, the degree of interdependence between the two sides will continue to decline. This is inevitable.
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