（Source: Xinhua News Agency 2024-06-19)
On June 11, Beijing time, the United Nations Security Council voted 14 in favor and 0 against to adopt the U.S.-proposed agreement to achieve an "immediate, comprehensive and complete" ceasefire in Gaza in order to end the eight-month-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict as soon as possible.
Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, pointed out in his explanatory speech after the vote that although there were some ambiguities in the draft, he recognized the rationality of the ceasefire initiative and the three-phase arrangement and decided to vote in favor.
Unlike the previous ceasefire agreement, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) first expressed its acceptance of the agreement in principle, and expressed its willingness to cooperate with relevant mediators to start indirect negotiations with Israel in a joint statement that day. Although Israel expressed its acceptance of the agreement in principle, it did not give a timetable for withdrawing from Gaza.
Is the most serious conflict in the Middle East in 50 years coming to an end? The situation is not so optimistic.
The prospects of the agreement are not optimistic
The U.S. ceasefire agreement will be implemented in three phases: the first phase is an "immediate, comprehensive and complete ceasefire", in which Israeli troops withdraw from the densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip; Hamas releases and returns some detainees such as women, the elderly and the wounded The remains of some of the murdered people; Israel will release imprisoned Palestinians; in the second phase, Hamas will release the remaining hostages held in exchange for all Israeli troops withdrawing from the Gaza Strip; the third phase will start a large-scale reconstruction plan in the Gaza Strip, etc.
Although Israel and Hamas stated on the day of the vote that they would cooperate with the Security Council resolution, both sides expressed dissatisfaction with the content of the resolution two days later. Among them, Hamas believes that the agreement lacks two crucial conditions: first, it does not mention the commitment to a permanent ceasefire, and second, it does not involve the issue of the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and illegally occupied lands (mainly the West Bank); Israel believes that there are important problems in the ceasefire agreement. First, Israel hopes to release all hostages as soon as possible, rather than proceeding in stages. Second, Israel will not change its goal of destroying Hamas, nor will it directly negotiate with Hamas.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, who went to the Middle East for mediation again after launching the agreement, said that Hamas has proposed a large number of modifications to the U.S. ceasefire agreement, only some of which are acceptable, and the United States will continue to try to bridge differences. The biggest point of disagreement is still the hostage issue that Israel is most concerned about. Now even senior Hamas officials don't know where the 120 hostages are being held and how many of them are still alive. If the hostage loss ratio is too high, will Israel have the patience to continue to implement this agreement? Therefore, Israel will not stop its military strikes on Gaza until it gets definite information about the hostages.
Although it has the offensive initiative, Israel is the party facing greater pressure. Israel’s former war cabinet (w88 casino games login dismissed the war cabinet on the evening of June 16) notified the Biden administration on June 2 that it accepted the framework agreement proposed by the United States to end this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, after the United Nations passed the resolution, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly rebelled, saying that there were still many details to be negotiated in the agreement, which made people suspect that w88 casino games login was only perfunctory with the Americans through verbal promises.
The far-right Israeli National Security Minister Gerver and Finance Minister Smotrich appear to have a firmer stance. They also stated that if w88 casino games login accepts US President Biden's ceasefire proposal, they will immediately resign and dissolve the government. What is even more unacceptable to the international community is that these two ministers have recently been raising their voices, demanding that other Arab countries step in to resettle the 2.2 million refugees in Gaza, which directly blocks the possibility of negotiations. However, in the face of such unreasonable demands, w88 casino games login cannot completely ignore it, because nearly half of the 64 congressional seats in his hands come from far-right parties. w88 casino games login no longer has the right to decide whether to agree to a ceasefire agreement.
w88 casino games login has too much time to take care of himself
w88 casino games login and the ruling coalition led by him have seen their public approval ratings hit rock bottom since the conflict between Japan and Israel broke out on October 7 last year. If the government is dissolved now and a new election is held, it is very likely that w88 casino games login will suffer a big defeat, lose his power to govern, and completely end his political life. It has been difficult for w88 casino games login to find a balance between ensuring his governing base and not angering the U.S. Democratic Party. All his current diplomatic efforts seem to be to appease the U.S. Democrats on the one hand, and to shore up the situation while waiting for the re-election of Republican leader Trump.
Looking back at w88 casino games login’s Palestinian policy, he has been exchanging short-term gains for long-term losses, and in the end the gains outweigh the losses. From the first time he became prime minister in 1996 to today, 28 years later, w88 casino games login's method of solving the Palestinian-Israeli issue has not changed: indefinitely delaying the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the grounds that he has no negotiating partners.
In fact, Israel has always had people to negotiate with. Since the late 1980s, the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) has given up on the idea of completely annihilating Israel and establishing a Palestinian state, and instead seeks peaceful coexistence with Israel. This also allowed Palestine and Israel to reach the quite feasible Oslo Accords in 1993. However, the peace process of the Oslo Accords was interrupted by Rabin's assassination, and w88 casino games login's coming to power completely closed the door for Israel to actively assist Palestine in establishing a state as soon as possible. Because the Israeli right wing represented by w88 casino games login is determined not to give up East Jerusalem, and has gradually evolved into not giving up any inch of West Bank territory, which is equivalent to completely overturning the Oslo Accords.
Corresponding to the continuous growth of right-wing parties in the Israeli political arena, Fatah's power boundaries in Palestine are continuously eroded by Hamas, and its influence continues to shrink. Since taking over the Gaza Strip in 2007, Hamas has become a political force competing with Fatah in Palestine. Faced with the rise of Hamas, Israel's right-wing parties have adopted a one-hit-and-one-pull policy - weakening Fatah in the West Bank while allowing Hamas in Gaza to grow, with the latter even extending its influence to the former's "territory." This is also the main reason why Palestinian President Abbas has not dared to hold another election since 2006. Hamas is generally recognized as a "terrorist organization" by Israel and European and American countries, and Fatah cannot represent the entire Palestine, so the w88 casino games login government can stop any discussion on the establishment of a Palestinian state on the grounds that it has "no negotiating partners."
The w88 casino games login government may believe that such a "divide and rule" strategy has had the effect of disintegrating Palestine. Except during the Obama administration, Palestine and Israel have not conducted any negotiations for more than 10 years, and the world seems to have forgotten the fact that Palestine has not yet established a state.
w88 casino games login’s return to power in 2009 represents the beginning of a new round of Israeli territorial annexation of the West Bank: as of early 2024, there are approximately 146 Israeli officially recognized settlements and 191 settlements that have not been approved by the government in the West Bank, with a total of approximately 700,000 long-term Jewish settlers. In the past 15 years, Israel has built approximately 24,300 new housing units in the West Bank, and approved plans for 12,855 new housing units in 2023 alone. The existence of these settlements and Jewish residents has further reduced the living space of Palestinians in the West Bank and greatly increased the difficulty for them to establish an independent state.
The seemingly shrewd strategy of the Israeli right-wing parties eventually ushered in the ultimate backlash from Hamas, making more Israeli civilians realize the lose-lose consequences of continuing to suppress Palestinian demands for statehood, and that w88 casino games login’s administration has not made Israel safer.
Synchronized with the launch of the ceasefire agreement by the United States, Gantz, one of the three members of Israel's former war cabinet, former defense minister and chief of staff, resigned. He accused w88 casino games login's Gaza policy of missing the best opportunity to rescue hostages and achieve peace, and called for the dissolution of Congress and an election. Gantz represented political forces outside w88 casino games login's ruling coalition in the former war cabinet. He has high popularity and is the favorite Israeli politician of the US Democratic Party. If an election is held now, he has a good chance of replacing w88 casino games login as prime minister. Gantz's withdrawal has forced w88 casino games login to rely more on the support of far-right parties, and these parties have expressed their opposition to the US-backed Gaza ceasefire plan. Therefore, w88 casino games login can only choose between regaining US support and ensuring the support of domestic political parties.
Externally, the high death toll of civilians in Gaza, the Rafah offensive and the lack of clear long-term planning are further deteriorating relations between Israel and Western countries; internally, the lack of significant progress on the hostage issue, the ultra-long-term service of hundreds of thousands of reservists and the vague long-term strategy for Gaza have left w88 casino games login somewhat overwhelmed, and it seems that it is only a matter of time before he steps down.
The ceasefire agreement involves Hezbollah
This US ceasefire agreement also involves the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, 2023, the relationship between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon has further deteriorated, and conflicts have occurred frequently. Hezbollah launches rockets or drone attacks on northern Israel almost every day, and Israel responds with drones and shelling of Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. As of mid-May 2024, these conflicts have resulted in the death of about 350 people in Lebanon, including more than 50 civilians, the rest were Hezbollah fighters, and about 20 people died on the Israeli side. In addition, the conflict also led to the evacuation of 150,000 residents of the two countries from the border. The conflict between the two sides has approached the scale of the "Second Lebanon War" in 2006.
According to the ceasefire agreement, the two sides first ceased fire for 10 days, during which Hezbollah and other armed organizations were required to withdraw at least 10 kilometers from the border area; while the Lebanese military sent 15,000 soldiers to station at the border. Israel and Lebanon also need to restart negotiations to resolve border disputes during the ceasefire. The Lebanese government welcomes the ceasefire agreement, but Hezbollah says it will stop attacking Israel only after Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement.
However, Israel will not let the ceasefire agreement disrupt its plans to fight Hezbollah. Reports indicate that Israel plans to launch a large-scale attack on Hezbollah in mid-June, and this news has been conveyed to the Lebanese government through diplomatic channels; Hezbollah has also stated that it is ready for a full-scale war and has repeatedly launched rockets and drones to attack northern Israel. It remains to be seen whether the Israeli army will directly send troops into southern Lebanon as it did in 2006. After all, after 18 years of recuperation and long-term support from Iran and other countries, it is still unclear how much Hezbollah's true combat effectiveness has increased. Before it regains control of Gaza, Israel will be more cautious in choosing ground troops to enter Lebanon and start a head-on war with Hezbollah.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Mrs. Meir once said that if the Arabs lay down their arms, there will be no more war; if the Jews lay down their arms, there will be no more Israel. Hamas supporters often shout at rallies: From rivers to seas, Palestine will be completely liberated. The so-called rivers and oceans are the entire land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, which means they want to completely eliminate Israel.
For the Israelis, Hamas wants to wipe Israel off the map, so Hamas must be completely eliminated this time. The responsibility for the resulting civilian casualties lies with Hamas; for the Palestinians, they once wanted to lay down their weapons, but they did not get peace, so some people chose to join Hamas and continue fighting. A vicious cycle continues.
Any ceasefire agreement will not bring lasting peace. We call on both parties to return to the negotiating table so that the two-state solution can be finally implemented. In the current situation, this day is still far away.
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