(Source: "Securities Daily" 2024-06-18)
From the recently released sets of macroeconomic data, we can see the clear logic of China's economic rebound and improvement, showing that China's economy has the confidence to stabilize and improve.
Market demand is rising steadily
At present, the internal dynamic energy of China's economy continues to recover. From the production side, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 17 shows that in May, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with 90% of regions, 80% of industries, and nearly 60% of products achieving year-on-year growth; the national service industry production index increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than in April.
With the combined effect of various policies, market demand is rising steadily. On the consumer side, the total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 3.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, 1.4 percentage points faster than April; on the investment side, in the first five months, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 18.80 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, manufacturing investment and high-tech industry investment increased by 9.6% and 11.5% respectively.
From the perspective of external demand, my country's foreign w88 has embarked on a steady "rebound curve" since the beginning of this year. In May, my country's total import and export of goods increased by 8.6% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points faster than in April. In the first five months, my country's total import and export of goods reached 17.50 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history.
Lv Yue, a professor at the National Institute for Opening-up at the w88 casino, told a reporter from Securities Daily that digitalization and green and low-carbon transformation trends in foreign w88 are significant. The export scale of high-end, intelligent, and green products continues to expand. my country's w88 structure continues to be optimized, and new advantages in foreign w88 are accelerating.
From the perspective of consumption capacity, the job market has been stable since May, providing a foundation for a rebound in consumption. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, the same as in April, and the surveyed unemployment rate for the migrant agricultural household registration population was 4.5%. In the first quarter, residents' income increased by 6.2% in nominal terms compared with the same period last year, which was faster than the GDP growth rate in the same period and was also conducive to stabilizing consumption capacity.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told a reporter from Securities Daily that thanks to the improvement in residents’ employment and income and the continued restoration of consumer confidence, residents’ willingness to consume has increased. The implementation of a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, including city-specific policies to stabilize the property market and optimize supply, will help further enhance the momentum of consumption growth and lay a solid foundation for achieving the annual economic goals.
New economic momentum and new vitality highlighted
High-quality development is the driving force for stable economic growth. Currently, many indicators related to the quality of development highlight new economic momentum and vitality. In May, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size nationwide increased by 10% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size. In the first five months, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 17.5% year-on-year, and investment in manufacturing technology transformation increased by 10% year-on-year.
In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told a reporter from Securities Daily that since the beginning of this year, manufacturing investment has remained high and continues to lead the three major investment sectors. Behind this is the continued increase in policy support for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In addition, various regions are currently promoting large-scale equipment updates. Manufacturing investment will receive greater policy tilt this year. In the short term, manufacturing investment is expected to continue its steady upward trend, indicating that the endogenous growth momentum of my country's economy has improved.
Judging from the latest published data, the effects of policies related to "large-scale equipment renewal" and "energy conservation and carbon reduction" have further emerged.
Data shows that in May, the retail sales of communications equipment, household appliances and audio-visual equipment above designated size increased by 16.6% and 12.9% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rates were 3.3 percentage points and 8.4 percentage points faster than in April respectively. Sales of new energy vehicles have achieved rapid growth. Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in May, the transaction volume of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 38.4% year-on-year.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from Securities Daily that economic growth is expected to rebound to around 5.5% in the second quarter of this year.
Attached original link:http://www.zqrb.cn/finance/hongguanjingji/2024-06-18/A1718715489443.html
