(Source: China Business News 2024-07-09)
Since this year，my country’s foreign trade has gone through a very difficult rebound curve，What is the prospect of foreign trade in the second half of the year？Under foreign trade structure，The proportion of developing countries has increased，Is this a long-term trend？The "Three New Things" of foreign trade encounter "new tariffs" when going overseas，How companies respond？Chinese enterprises accelerate “going global”，What are the reasons？How to understand the relationship between openness and security?Exclusive interview with Tu Xinquan, Dean of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics。
First 5 months of this year，my country’s total import and export value of goods trade 17.5 trillion yuan，YoY growth of 6.3%。Among them，The growth rate in May was 0 higher than that in April.6 percentage points to 8.6%。Fluctuations from the first quarter，To 4、May is getting better month by month，Since this year，Foreign trade has embarked on a rebound curve。Under the still complex and severe international trade environment，First 5 months，Mechanical and electrical products with high technical content and added value account for nearly 60% of exports，Among them，Ship、Electric vehicle、Exports of household appliances increased by 100 respectively.1%、26.3% and 17.8%。Meanwhile，With trading partners，First 5 months，Not only does my country’s trade with its largest trading partner, ASEAN, continue to grow faster than the overall rate，Traditional markets such as the United States and Europe have also recovered。
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China Business News: 2023，Among the Troika driving economic growth，The contribution of exports to economic growth is negative，Pull GDP0 down.6 percentage points。Halfway through 2024，How to judge the contribution of exports to economic growth this year？
Tu Xinquan: The trade data in the first half of the year has rebounded significantly compared with last year，And it continues to improve。From an international perspective，The external environment has also improved。Trade relations have been slowly improving since the second half of last year。From a macroeconomic perspective，The performance of developed countries in the first half of this year was better than expected。The U.S. economy is growing relatively steadily。It should be said that Europe is slowly digesting the negative impact it received after the Russia-Ukraine conflict，So the performance in the first half of this year is relatively good。Japan’s economy has also improved，Japan raises interest rates for the first time in decades。So from the perspective of external demand, it is better than expected。So this provides a good foundation for our export growth in the first half of this year。Of course from an import perspective，We have also grown，This also reflects the improvement in domestic demand。
China Business News: The beginning of the year，Many international organizations and financial institutions have made predictions about the global economy。Overall，Global economic growth will slow down in 2024，Specially like the United States、Japan、Developed economies such as the EU are generally facing a sharp slowdown in economic growth，Some are cut in half，Some even have negative growth expectations。You just mentioned that the actual situation in the first half of the year was better than expected，Then，Whether the tone of the full-year outlook will change as a result？What do you think of the trends of various parties in the second half of the year？
Tu Xinquan: The situation in the first half of the year is better than expected，At least so far we have not seen any factors that interrupt this improvement trend。Judging from the trend in the second half of the year，Should be w88 casino games loginable to maintain the overall trend in the first half of the year。You say that’s great，It’s really not realistic。Because the world economy is currently in a downward trend，In general, there is indeed a lack of new growth points，This is a mid- to long-term trend。But judging from the short-term trend this year，The possibility of maintaining the trend in the first half of the year is still very high。
Under foreign trade structure，The proportion of developing countries has increased，Is it a long-term trend？
China Business News: Global regional perspective，EU、United States，has become my country’s second and third largest trading partners，Data for the first 5 months of this year，The total trade value between China and the EU fell by 1.3 percentage points。Meanwhile，The total trade value between my country and ASEAN increased by 10.8%，The growth of import and export of my country and the countries and regions co-building the “Belt and Road” is also very impressive。Will this trend continue？
Tu Xinquan: In my country’s overall foreign trade structure，The proportion of developing countries is increasing，The proportion of developed countries is relatively declining，This is a mid- to long-term trend。There are many reasons。On the one hand，Developing countries themselves have fast economic development，Accordingly，The share must be higher。Also，my country’s commodity structure has also changed greatly。In the past we relied heavily on developed countriesIntermediate goodsImport，After processing and assembly，Export finished products to them through processing trade。So the scale of mutual trade is very large。But now as the results of my country’s industrial upgrading continue to become more prominent，Most of our intermediate products are now produced by ourselves，Even exports a large amount of intermediate products。So in fact, the complementary trade relationship between us and developed countries is undergoing great changes。So you look at these products we import from the United States，Many are bulk commodities。We export industrial products，Everything imported from the United States is food、Oil, etc.。Accordingly，The trade structure with developing countries is also undergoing adjustments。We are now exporting more and more independent brands、Intermediate products of independent technology，Includes finished goods。Automobile exports have grown very rapidly in the past two years。But in fact, many of our own brands are exported mainly to developing countries。Developed countries mainly export to them some products of our joint ventures。The export of many intermediate products is also growing very fast，The main targets of intermediate product exports are also developing countries。So this is indeed a big change in the medium and long-term trade structure，Reflects the upgrading of my country’s industrial structure。
China Business News: “Three New Things” are a highlight of trade in the past two years，But we have also seen some countries imposing new tariffs on the "three new" products，How to deal with such changes？What suggestions do you have？
Tu Xinquan: "Three new things"，New energy vehicles、Photovoltaic，Lithium battery included。The reason why these three products have become the current highlights of trade growth，It is a result of the upgrading of our industrial structure。As a latecomer to industrialization, we are latecomers，But the "three new things" are that our independent content is very high。New energy vehicles，The leaders are all Chinese companies，No matter private or state-owned。Relatively speaking，These joint ventures，On the contrary, it is relatively "backward"。Like photovoltaic even more，Chinese companies account for 70 to 80% of the global market，Lithium batteries are similar。So the development of these industries，Reflects China’s independence、Improvement of self-reliance。Our international technology、Dependence on Capital，Significant decrease compared with the past。Although we used to have many main export products，Mobile phone、Computer，Includes some other home appliances，But you see, these industries were all joint ventures at the beginning。But the "three new things" are not，We have been autonomous from the beginning。So this is a very big change。This change is our new growth point。But from the perspective of international competition, it is a challenge to other countries。At the same time，These industries are in many countries，Or the emerging strategic industries that almost all major industrialized countries want to develop。Because green transformation is a global trend，Everyone w88 casino games loginwants to seize the opportunity of industrial development in this transformation process。When the export of “New Three Things” started to grow rapidly in the first two years，We just said we should be ready，There may be trade friction，Judging from the development in the past two years, it has indeed appeared。We must treat it with a normal mind。These developed countries，They have also experienced it during their development。Because you have impacted the existing structure，There will definitely be a corresponding reaction。For example, between the United States and Japan，Similar conflicts have occurred in many industries。
This process，On the one hand，We still need to make full use of international rules，Resort to international organizations，Including WTO。Second，Find some common interests as much as possible。The “three new things” are actually new energy industries，Everyone has a very strong need for cooperation。There are many ways to cooperate，Including technology、Capital cooperation。In fact, we have similar cooperation with these leading industries in developed countries during our development process，Multinational companies have benefited，We also benefited。The main way we will participate in the international market in the future，It is true that it cannot be completely produced locally and then exported，Some conflicts of interest arising from this will be quite intense。Also，Of course from a business perspective，A more realistic response strategy is to diversify the market。Exports of “Three New Things” in the past two years，More and more exports to developing countries。China is definitely a global trading power，We must look at the world。
China Business News: What I just mentioned are changes in the external market。Look within，There are also some challenges，For example, the prices of “Three New Products” are also falling rapidly。How much market space does the “three new items” have?？
Tu Xinquan: From the perspective of global market space, it is still very large，It’s just that China’s market share in new energy products is relatively high，Causing some trade conflicts，Including causing some countries to raise trade barriers，In fact, the world market is divided，Or compressed。Correspondingly, domestic industrial competition has become more intense。But generally speaking，There is actually still space for this。What is more important is to create a more market-oriented environment。From the perspective of market economy，Too much supply，The price will drop，Companies will exit after the price drops，Demand and supply will be rebalanced。The most important thing is to maintain the market-oriented mechanism，Allow these companies to enter and exit freely，There will always be some companies that survive。Of course there may be a problem involved，Market segmentation prevents some companies that should exit the market from exiting。So why has the country placed great emphasis on the construction of a unified market in the past two years。We just need to build a unified market，Even if there is such a periodic surplus，Don’t worry about it，It will be digested slowly。From the perspective of our past industrial development history，Like home appliances、Mobile phone，Which industry has not seen this situation before?？The price competition is fierce。You are like a home appliance，But the market is very stable now。So，Some industries may be a little worried about the so-called "overcapacity" problem，In fact, the key point lies in market segmentation。Because there is no unified market。Of course，From a business perspective，How to survive in a fiercely competitive market，One is to improve technology，The other is to reduce costs，Expand the scale。Of course there is one more thing，We must establish some basic social standards、Environmental standards must be controlled。Enterprises cannot be allowed to lower so-called environmental standards in this way、Labor standards，Or lower quality standards to reduce costs。
Why are Chinese companies accelerating their “going overseas”?
Yicai Global: We see that companies going global are moving from product exports to industrial chain shifts，Many companies are setting their sights overseas，Building factories overseas，What is its endogenous driving force？What companies need to pay attention to？
Tu Xinquan: These are not new phenomena，Many countries have experienced this stage。Generally speaking，The more the economy develops，Your technical elements，The capabilities of capital factors are getting stronger w88 online casinoand stronger，The cost of relative labor will continue to increase。Because the purpose of economic development is not to increase labor costs？In order to increase wages，Increase our revenue。This is the economic development goal，It’s normal。But the factor endowment changes，The industrial structure that adapts must change accordingly。An increase in labor costs，Then labor-intensive industries will naturally be uncompetitive。We are talking about another issue called specificity。Because of the capital，Or for example, some entrepreneurs only understand this industry，It turned out to be very good in this industry，There is no room for survival in this industry now，But I won’t do anything else，What to do？I can only go abroad to find new skills suitable for me、Countries with the ability to carry out investment。Other countries have experienced such a process。Of course there are some other reasons，Such as trade barriers，Can’t exit directly，Need to change location for production and re-export。This is what is called bypassing this trade barrier，It is indeed a last resort。
Third，From the perspective of benefit distribution in the international division of labor，The main beneficiary of exports is indeed the exporting country。Although we say trade should be free，But most people or most countries don’t like trade deficits。But the distribution of investment benefits is relatively balanced。Because you invest in a country，It will definitely drive local employment，At the same time, it also contributes tax revenue to the local area，At the same time, we will also train local talents，So the acceptance rate will be higher。So in general，Investment barriers are relatively few，Especially in the manufacturing industry，There are relatively more service industries。China is now the world’s second largest economy，The largest trading body，Overseas investment is also inevitable，Or it can even be said to be a contribution we should make to international economic development。In fact, we invest abroad，Especially investment in these developing countries，We are helping them develop，Help them achieve industrialization。To a certain extent，We are cultivating consumers。We now have such a large production capacity，China’s industry accounts for 35% of the world’s industry，Such a large production capacity must be digested globally。But if other countries do not develop，Who will help you digest it？Of course，In fact, we ourselves also benefit from foreign investment。Many of these investments go to developing countries，Also includes investments in developed countries，The rate of return is still very high，Of course there are risks。
How does China contribute its wisdom to the formulation of international trade rules?
Yicai Global: China is increasingly participating in the formulation of international rules。Participating in international trade rules this year、Construction of institutions and cooperative relations，What are the events and developments that deserve special attention？
Tu Xinquan: After the reform and opening up，We have joined a global trading system，In this process，In fact, China has benefited greatly。So we strongly support the current oneMultilateral trading system。At the beginning of this year in March，The 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO has just ended，China has made a very important contribution，The Agreement on Investment Facilitation for Development that we initiated was adopted。Although it has not officially taken effect yet，But it was accepted by more than 120 members。This is the first time that an investment rule has been included in the WTO，This is a very big breakthrough for the WTO。So first of all，We still need to adhere to the multilateral trading system。Second，The multilateral trading system is facing many challenges now，But we should do more to unite the majority，Multilateral platforms are still our most important priority、The most cherished platform。Third，We also attach great importance to the region，Including bilateral trade agreements，Including the signing of investment agreements、Update。We are also actively applying to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)，《Digital Economy Partnership Agreement》(DEPA)，Can walk on multiple legs。Of course there are some，There may not be a formal agreement，But we still advocate negotiation、Resolve some possible trade disputes through consultation、Trade friction，w88 online casinoResolve these differences through negotiation。
How to understand the relationship between openness and security?
China Business News: Policies on stabilizing foreign investment and foreign trade，What are your expectations？
Tu Xinquan: From the perspective of opening up，An issue we may have to deal with ourselves is the issue of open and secure relationships。Because objectively speaking，It is true that we are now facing a worse geopolitical environment than before，Continuously increasing attention to security is very necessary。But from another perspective，Our country’s greatest security，In other words, the most important way to achieve security is development，Development is inseparable from openness。Because we need the world market，Need these resources of the world、Technology。actually，From the perspective of a big country，We may be one of the countries most deeply integrated into the international economic system。Our trade dependence is the highest among major countries，Of course we use foreign capital、Foreign investment is one of the highest。So opening up is very critical to our country’s economic development。Only expanded opening，In order to speed up development，Only by accelerating development，To make us safer。
One more thing，Opening to this stage，In institutional openness，Reform and opening up are inseparable，or，Opening up is reform，Reform is opening up。Because China is already a highly open economy，The flow of various elements has been very sufficient。The flow of factors inevitably requires a more market-oriented domestic environment。So in this sense，Opening up is reform，Because there is no reform，The elements will not come。Or no reform，There is no market-oriented one、Public、Transparent domestic market environment or business environment。The country has placed special emphasis on the creation of a business environment in the past two years，Internationalization、Marketization、Rule of law，Trinity。A more international business environment，The key is domestic reform。How to create a more reasonable distribution relationship between the government and the market。The combination of efficient market and promising government，How to find the best combination point。Including how to be more open in the "action" of a promising government、Fair、Justice、Transparent，There is still a lot of work that can be done。Foreign capitalEnterprise，Private enterprise，They regulate the market、Market environment、Some pain points in the business environment、request，Even complaining，Go to targeted solutions。This is actually good for enterprises，The sense of gain will be more obvious。
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