(Source: China Economic Times 2024-07-17)

Editor’s note:Those who observe the trend are wise, those who follow the trend win, and those who control the trend are the only ones in the world. On the occasion of the release of the National Economic Semi-annual Report, China Economic Times invited authoritative experts in the field of macroeconomics to interpret it. The planning of this group aims to analyze the domestic economic situation from the perspective of the global economic pattern and discuss hot issues such as international w88 and China-EU economic and w88 relations. In the overwhelming analysis from all walks of life, we firmly sing the bright theory of China's economy and pay close attention to the medium- and long-term structural contradictions of the economy; we firmly believe that further deepening reform and expanding opening up will effectively promote high-quality development.

Core point:The three "unchanged" aspects of the world economy remain the main directions for future development. We must proactively respond to opportunities and challenges; we must more proactively pursue a mutually beneficial and win-win opening strategy and actively participate in global governance.

■Zhao Zhongxiu

The global economy will show a positive trend in the first half of 2024, but the foundation is still unstable and there are still many geopolitical uncertainties.

First, the global economy is recovering slowly and regional differentiation is relatively obvious.From the perspective of GDP growth, the world will still continue the slow recovery trend in 2023 in the first half of 2024, but this is also a positive sign. The U.S. economy began to slow down after experiencing rapid growth in 2023, with GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 being only 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.6%. The European economy as a whole is still relatively sluggish. Data released by Eurostat show that in the first quarter of 2024, the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product of the euro zone and the European Union only increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, which can be described as "deep in quagmire." Emerging economies have become the "booster" for global economic recovery. In the first half of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, and India's GDP growth in the first quarter was as high as 7.8%.

Second, w88 growth has rebounded, but there are still many uncertainties.After experiencing stagnation in 2023, global merchandise w88 showed a recovery trend in the first half of this year. Data released by some countries show that foreign w88 in many countries has achieved positive growth, but it is still weak compared with historical levels. There is great vulnerability in the w88 recovery. On the one hand, global consumption is still weak and external demand has not yet fully recovered. On the other hand, w88 protectionism is emerging one after another in various countries, and the policy of "internalization" of the industrial chain continues. In May this year, the White House announced additional tariffs on a range of Chinese products, including solar cells, electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products. Among them, the tariff on electric vehicles imported from China will be increased from 25% to 100% from August 1. On July 4, the European Commission issued a preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy investigation of China's electric vehicles and decided to impose temporary countervailing duties on electric vehicles imported from China. w88 protectionism in Europe and the United States continues to spread, and the global w88 situation in the second half of the year needs to be further watched.

Third, global inflationary pressures are easing faster than expected, This is undoubtedly a good signal for the global economy, mainly due to the continued tightening of monetary policies in major developed economies and the correction of raw material and energy prices. However, global interest rates are likely to remain high, and the continued tightening of financial policies will have an adverse impact on the recovery of global growth.

Fourth, the U.S. election has led to rising global risks, and the geopolitical situation remains tense.The U.S. presidential election will have a greater impact on the world. It will not only lead to political struggles and social divisions within the United States, but may also lead to more radical foreign policies and w88 protectionism. The French election highlighted the expansion of the influence of the far right, and the British Labor Party won the election. The internal divisions and policy shifts in Europe will add new uncertainties to the world economic recovery. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a multi-faceted impact on the global economy, including geopolitical fragmentation, energy price fluctuations, increased inflationary pressure, and disruption of global supply chains.

Of course, we must not only proactively respond to short-term changes in the world economy, but also grasp its long-term laws. Materialist dialectics tells us that "change" is the development characteristic of things, and "immutability" is the certainty of things. Only by unifying "change" and "immutability" can we correctly understand things and their development and changes.

The three "unchanged" aspects of the world economy remain the main direction of future development.

First, the fundamental direction of economic globalization has not changed.Globalized production is still the most efficient division of labor model. Economic globalization is an objective requirement for the development of social productive forces and an inevitable result of scientific and technological progress. It is an irreversible historical trend, and its long-term trend and fundamental direction will not change. The share of intermediate goods in total w88 remains around 50%. This proportion has remained basically unchanged over the past decade, which fully demonstrates the strong resilience of the global production division in the context of the surge in counter-globalization. The economic base determines the superstructure, and the system of division of labor in the global value chain determines the direction of economic globalization, which is irreversible.

Second, the theme of the times of peace and development has not changed.Although geopolitical events have been raging in recent years, the threats of unilateralism, hegemonism, and power politics have risen, and the world has entered a new period of turmoil and change. The theme of the times, peace and development, is facing severe challenges, but the theme of the times has not changed. On the one hand, in today's era of digital globalization, human connections exceed all previous eras, and major events will soon spread around the world. Humanity is a community with a shared future that shares weal and woe. Peace, development, cooperation, and win-win are the common aspirations of people of all countries. On the other hand, the power to maintain world peace and promote common development is growing day by day. In terms of economic cooperation, despite the global wave of anti-globalization, the will to promote economic globalization is still strong. In 2024, the World w88 Organization reached plurilateral agreements on domestic regulations for w88 in services.

Third, the historical trend of world multipolarity has not changed.The trend of “rising in the east and falling in the west” is becoming increasingly prominent. The rapid rise of emerging market countries and developing countries represented by the BRICS has become a decisive force in promoting changes in the world that have not been seen in a century. Since the beginning of the 21st century, emerging market countries and developing countries have risen rapidly, and their development momentum is significantly stronger than that of developed economies. The world economic pattern is undergoing the most revolutionary changes in modern times. According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, since 2001, the share of emerging market and developing economies in the world economy has increased from 21% to 41%. Emerging markets and developing economies have contributed 80% to world economic growth and have become the main driving force for global economic growth.

We must correctly view the "changes" and "unchanges" of the world economic situation and proactively respond to opportunities and challenges. From the perspective of market relations with developed countries, as China's economic scale continues to expand and its industrial structure continues to upgrade, the "potential gap" in w88 technology with developed countries continues to narrow, but the resulting w88 frictions will continue to increase, which is inevitable. This kind of w88 friction is not only reflected in the traditional w88 field, but also in areas such as data flow and technology flow. While seeing challenges, there are also many opportunities. The rapid improvement of China's economic strength has increased market opportunities between China and other developing countries. Developing countries represented by ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa have significantly increased their dependence on China for w88. This trend has become very obvious after the "One Belt, One Road" initiative was proposed.

Faced with the uncertainty of the external world, we must more proactively pursue a mutually beneficial and win-win strategy of opening up and actively participate in global governance.

First, expand the global high-standard free w88 zone network.We demand common ground while reserving differences, firmly safeguard multilateralism, and play a good role as a "bridge" between developed countries and developing economies. Draw on the successful experience of investment facilitation negotiations, proactively launch the "China Proposal" in plurilateral fields, and promote multilateral negotiations with common interests. Continue to advance the negotiation process of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economic Partnership Agreement (DEPA), and promote the negotiation and signing of more high-standard free w88 agreements. We clearly oppose "value w88" and "small circle" cooperation.

The second is to promote the construction of regional value chains in Asia.Make Asia’s surrounding areas a priority for economic and w88 cooperation, and continue to strengthen economic and w88 cooperation with Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Make full use of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), accelerate China-ASEAN 3.0 upgraded version negotiations and China-Japan-South Korea Free w88 Area negotiations, and maximize policy dividends. We should take advantage of the opportunity of the SCO's expansion to actively promote regional energy cooperation, promote the internationalization of the RMB, and strengthen high-tech cooperation.

The third is to strengthen and jointly build the industrial docking of the “Belt and Road” countries.Build high-level overseas economic and w88 cooperation zones, accelerate the construction of "two countries and two parks", and accurately promote industrial project cooperation. Promote advantageous industries to go global and build an industrial chain system with us as the mainstay. Support the development of China-Europe freight trains, build new international land and sea w88 channels, and expand the layout of Eurasian economic and w88 cooperation.

The fourth is to promote the output of standards and rules.Strengthen the construction of standards internationalization infrastructure and increase the promotion of the internationalization of Chinese standards. In the formulation of standards and export of rules, strengthen the training, reserve and export of international talents, and enhance China’s international voice in the formulation of standards and rules.

(The author is the president of the w88 casino and a special researcher at the Beijing Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era)

Attached original link:

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