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"China Petroleum Enterprise Magazine": (Dong Xiucheng) The global oil trade pattern is accelerating the evolution, China, the United States, India and Japan have become the protagonists of oil imports

Published: October 23, 2024 Editor: Yuqing

(Source: "China Petroleum Enterprise Magazine" 2024-10-17)

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“From the perspective of global oil supply and consumption pattern,Petroleum is a natural energy variety with a serious mismatch between production capacity and consumption capacity,An imbalance in the supply and demand pattern will inevitably lead to an imbalance in the trade pattern。”

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1. The global oil trade pattern continues to evolve

Look at it from a regional perspective,The world’s main oil export region is the Middle East、CIS and Africa,The main oil importing regions are Europe and the Asia-Pacific region。Oil,This energy treasure,From the perspective of its supply and consumption pattern,As if he is an artist with a serious mismatch between production and consumption capabilities,The picture of the imbalance between supply and demand,It will inevitably lead to the complexity of the trade pattern。Think globally,Middle East、The CIS and Africa are the main exporters of oil,Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are the main oil importing places,Like a painter spreading colors,Divide the oil trade territory on both sides of the Suez Canal,On one side is the magnificent Atlantic trade balance,On one side is the warmth of the balance of oil trade flowing from east to west。On the Atlantic Oil Trade Picture,Mainly manifested in North America、Harmonious coexistence between oil production w88 casinoin Central and South America and oil consumption in Europe,Like the blending of colors in oil paintings,Oil trade flows naturally within this area。On the east-west oil trade picture,The Asia-Pacific region is dominated by oil imports,Major oil trade relations with Middle East oil producing areas,And with America、The Commonwealth of Independent States and Northwest Africa form an auxiliary relationship for oil trade,Like the contrast between light and dark in a painting,Highlight the key points without losing overall harmony。Over the past few decades,The biggest feature of the evolution of the global oil trade pattern is the eastward shift of the center of gravity of oil trade,Like the color gradient in the picture scroll,The key factor is the shift of the center of gravity of global oil consumption from west to east。

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In the 1950s-1970s,Europe and the United States are the world’s major oil consumption regions,Global oil trade is mainly concentrated in the Atlantic region,The main export area for Middle East oil is Europe,Some are also exported to the United States。In the early 1970s,Although the Middle East’s oil exports to Japan are growing rapidly,But Western Europe is still the main oil exporter in the Middle East。After the 1990s,The main export region of Middle East oil has gradually shifted from Europe and the United States to the Asia-Pacific region,And with the rapid development of the Asia-Pacific economy,Especially after the mid-1990s,More than half of the Middle East’s oil exports go to the Asia-Pacific region。After this,With the rapid development of China’s economy,Oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region continues to rise,The Middle East’s oil export market share to the Asia-Pacific region has increased to more than 70%,And Africa、The share of oil exported to the Asia-Pacific region from Central and South America and the CIS has also begun to grow rapidly。After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,The global oil trade picture has been redrawn again,The main reason is that Western countries have imposed extremely severe energy sanctions on Russia,Russia has to adjust the flow of oil exports,Reduce exports to Western countries,Increase exports to the Asia-Pacific region。

2. The global oil export pattern has obvious regional characteristics

w88 casinoGlobal oil resources are distributed like a sea of ​​stars,The high degree of imbalance gives unique characteristics,And then promote the grand chapter of oil trade,Performing on the world energy stage。During the period 2012-2022,Global oil trade is stable or growing steadily,by 5670.60,000 barrels/day jumped to 6881.50,000 barrels/day,Like stars streaking across the night sky,Paint a magnificent picture。

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Middle East,Sea of ​​Pearls,Sparkling,Oil export volume is growing day by day like a pearl,increased from 20.39 million barrels/day to 24.26 million barrels/day,Added 18.98%;Proportion in global oil exports,by 35.96% dropped slightly to 35.26%。North America,Oil exports are burning like a raging fire,jumped from 7.1 million barrels/day to 14.63 million barrels/day,105 added.97%;Proportion in world oil exports,Also by 12.53% quickly increased to 21.26%,Increased by 8.73 percentage points,Symbolizes vitality and vitality。CIS region,Oil exports grow steadily,Like a glacier melting,Slowly increased from 9.41 million barrels/day to 9.92 million barrels/day,Added 5.36%;However,The proportion of global oil exports increased from 16.61% dropped to 14.42%,Down by 2.19 percentage points。Asia Pacific,Oil exports grow steadily,increased from 6.29 million barrels/day to 6.54 million barrels/day,Added 3.95%;However,11% of global oil exports.11% dropped to 9.52%,Down by 1.59 percentage points。West Africa,Oil exports recede like the tide,Dropped from 4.72 million barrels/day to 3.55 million barrels/day,Reduced by 24.7%;The proportion of global oil exports also increased from 8.33% dropped to 5.17%,Down by 3.16 percentage points。Central and South America,Oil exports are like autumn leaves falling,Dropped from 3.83 million barrels/day to 2.96 million barrels/day,Reduced by 22.74%;The proportion of global oil exports also increased from 6.75% dropped to 4.3%,Down by 2.45 percentage points。European region,Oil exports grow steadily,increased from 2.18 million barrels/day to 2.68 million barrels/day,Added 23.06%;The share of global oil exports increased from 3.85% increased to 3.90%,Slightly increased by 0.05 percentage points。North Africa,Oil exports are slowly sliding down like sand in an hourglass,w88 live casinoDropped from 2.6 million barrels/day to 2.07 million barrels/day;The proportion of global oil exports also increased from 4.59% dropped to 3.01%,Down by 1.58 percentage points。It can be seen from the above analysis,Global oil exports are mainly concentrated in the Middle East、North America、CIS and Asia-Pacific,In 2022, the above-mentioned regions’ oil export volume will account for up to 80% of the world’s total.46%。

3. Global oil importing countries are highly concentrated

During the period 2012-2022,On the world oil import stage,Four countries have become the protagonists。

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China,Like a great helmsman,Waving Tanker,Carrying a full tank of oil,Sailing in the vast sea。Oil imports are like a surging wave,by ​​667.50,000 barrels/day surged to 1215.60,000 barrels/day,Added 82.11%;The share of global oil imports increased from 11.77% increased to 17.66%,Increased by 5.89 percentage points。Oil imports are growing rapidly,Reflecting the rise of great powers,Quick and violent。Although the posture of the helmsman in the United States remains unchanged,But oil imports have declined steadily,by 1058.70,000 barrels/day reduced to 833.00,000 barrels/day,Reduced by 21.32%;The share of global oil imports increased from 18.67% dropped to 12.10%,Down by 6.57 percentage points。Like the old buildings in the sunset city,Oil imports seem to be slowly eroded by the tide of history。India has a steady pace,Like summer sunshine on an oil tanker,Oil import volume increased from 416.80,000 barrels/day increased to 575.20,000 barrels/day,Added 38.00%,Like a cheerful song,Full of vitality and vitality;The share of global oil exports increased from 7.35% increased to 8.36%,Increased by 1.01 percentage points。Japan’s oil import volume,Like falling leaves in autumn,Falling slowly,by 474.30,000 barrels/day reduced to 346.50,000 barrels/day,Reduced by 26.94%;The share of global oil imports increased from 8.36% dropped to 5.04%,Down by 3.32 percentage points,Even so,Numbers are also like a beautiful autumn leaf,has painted a deep color on the world’s energy development。It can be seen from the above data,In 2022, the proportion of oil imports from these four countries in global oil imports will be as high as 43.16%,The concentration of global oil imports is undoubtedly revealed,Full of challenges,Also full of opportunities。

Attachment: Original link

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