(Source: China Economic Times 2024-11-27)
Core Views:
Trump's next four-year term is both an opportunity and a challenge for China. The challenge lies in the extreme pressure on China and the wanton damage to the global trading system. However, the challenge is not unforeseeable. Overall, our opportunities outweigh the challenges.
Zhao Zhongxiu
From January to October 2024, my country's total import and export value of goods was 36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and the total import and export value in US dollars was 506.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The international market share remained basically stable, and foreign w88 login performed well. A noteworthy signal is that October is usually the trough period after the peak of foreign w88 login stocking, but imports and exports in October this year increased by 12.7% in US dollars, which is interpreted as an early action to deal with the US government's future high tariffs on imported goods from China.
After winning the election, Trump is allocating his executive team, and handling matters toward China will become a focus of the future administration of the United States. The tone of Trump's 2.0 era to China affairs in the 2024 program approved by the Republican National Committee of the United States can be seen from the "2024 Program" approved by the Republican National Committee of the United States.
New US government's economic and w88 login policy toward China
One is to continue to have tough w88 login policies.Hard w88 login policies include a comprehensive tariff of 10% on almost all goods entering the United States and a unified tariff of up to 60% on goods from China. Although the specific scope and rhythm of implementation will be adjusted, it is undoubtedly certain to play the tariff brand, which will inevitably further hit Sino-US w88 login and further reduce the proportion of bilateral imports and exports in their respective exports.
The second is to further restrict China's investment in the United States and access to American high-tech.The new US government will further strengthen security reviews of foreign investment, ensure effective review and prevent Chinese investments that may threaten national security. The new US government may introduce new regulations to clearly prohibit China from artificial intelligence, semiconductors, 5G networks,
Invest in the United States in fields such as biotechnology. In addition, Chinese companies may be prohibited from participating in critical infrastructure projects in the United States, such as power grids, transportation and communication networks.
The third is to boycott the global expansion of Chinese companies.United allies to fight against Chinese investment and China's overseas plans, that is, to enhance global supervision of Chinese investment through international cooperation. The Trump administration will win over and even coerce its allies to jointly formulate and implement strict and coordinated investment review standards, establish a transnational information sharing mechanism, and promptly exchange and respond to China's global investment activities, thereby further restricting the pace of Chinese companies' industrial overseas travel.
Fourth, expand the scope and intensity of sanctions against Chinese government, enterprises and individuals.Use economic sanctions, especially the "long-arm jurisdiction" power, to crack down on the international operation capabilities of Chinese companies. The new US government may include more Chinese companies and individuals on the entity list and sanctions list, freeze their assets in the United States, restrict their transactions with American companies and financial institutions, and focus on sanctions on Chinese companies suspected of participating in the "theft" of cutting-edge American technology and so-called "human rights violations."
Fifth, we will also strengthen the control of Chinese people in the United States.Restart or rename measures similar to the "Action Plan for China", strengthen the review of Chinese scholars and researchers and restrict their activities in the United States, thereby setting more obstacles to normal exchanges between Chinese people in the United States and China, and achieving the goal of technological decoupling by hindering personnel exchanges.
China's cracking method
Trump's next four-year term is both an opportunity and a challenge for China.The challenge lies in the extreme pressure on China and the wanton damage to the global trading system, and even the cancellation of mutually favored most-favored-nation treatment (which is essentially normal w88 login conditions), which will lead to a serious regression in Sino-US w88 login relations. However, challenges are not unforeseen. Overall, our opportunities outweigh challenges.
The new US government will definitely continue to impose a blockade on China in high-tech, especially in the chip field. China needs to continue to adopt a comprehensive strategy to deal with this challenge and solve the "bottleneck" problem. The strategic stalemate results of the past 8 years show that our comprehensive strategy is effective.
The new US government will return to the path of "America First" and "isolationism", creating conditions for me to win traditional American allies such as the EU and Japan, and open up emerging market countries. In terms of economic cooperation with the EU, we can vigorously promote the implementation of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI), further open up the market, and attract EU companies to invest in China; at the same time, increase exports to the EU market, promote joint research and development of China and Europe in the fields of artificial intelligence, clean energy, medical and health, and try to establish a China-EU Innovation Alliance to promote technology exchanges and transfers.
Enhance the ability of Chinese market and China's production capacity to contribute to the world economy. Implement the strategic deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee on further comprehensive deepening of reform, build a high-level socialist market economic system, and better play the role of the market mechanism; improve the system and mechanism to promote high-quality economic development, vigorously develop new quality productive forces, promote the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy, improve the resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain, and improve the ability to "decouple and break chain"; build a system and mechanism to support comprehensive innovation, promote the integrated reform of the system and mechanism of education and science and technology talents, and win the science and technology war and talent war in international competition; improve the system and mechanism of high-level opening up to the outside world, build a new system of open economy with a higher level hedging "small courtyard and high wall", smooth the circulation system for mutual promotion between the two domestic and international markets, promote the modernization of the global south, inject momentum into the open world economy, provide institutional support for real multilateralism, maintain the authority of high-level international economic and trade rules, and lead economic globalization to develop in the direction of inclusive, inclusive, green and innovative.
(The author is the president of the University of International Economics and w88 login)
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