(Source: China Economic Times 2024-11-27)
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What Trump’s next four years in office mean to China，Both opportunities and challenges。The challenge lies in exerting maximum pressure on China and wanton destruction of the global trading system，However, challenges are not unforeseen，Generally speaking, our opportunities outweigh the challenges。
Zhao Zhongxiu
January to October 2024，my country’s total import and export value of goods is 36 trillion yuan，YoY growth of 5.2%，The total import and export value in U.S. dollars is 5.0676 billion U.S. dollars，YoY growth 3.7%，International market share remains basically stable，Outstanding performance in foreign trade。A noteworthy signal is，Usually October is the trough period after the peak of foreign trade stocking，But the import and export volume in October this year increased by 12% in US dollars.7%，Interpreted as an early action in response to the future US government’s imposition of high tariffs on goods imported from China。Short-term centralized stocking in advance is a drop in the bucket after all，How will China’s foreign trade proceed in the future？After Trump wins the White House again，Sino-US economic and trade relations may be greatly impacted and tested。In the stormy sea，China’s foreign trade giant will surely ride the wind and waves and move forward bravely。
After winning the election, Trump is arranging his executive team，Handling China affairs will become a focus of the future US government。A glimpse of Trump from the "2024 Platform" approved by the Republican National Committee 2.The tone of China affairs in the 0 era。The "Platform" puts forward 20 commitments，Some of them related to China，Mainly focused on two aspects: economic trade and national defense strength。In economics and trade，The platform advocates a "patriotic America first" economic policy，Commitment to "Rebalance Trade，Ensure strategic independence from China，Revitalizing w88 mobilethe status of a manufacturing superpower”，And proposed to "cancel China's most favored nation status，Gradually stop importing essential goods，And stop the Chinese from buying American real estate and industry”。The future U.S. government’s China policy will be the biggest disruptive factor to China’s foreign trade development，The solution lies in taking active measures to stabilize the industrial and supply chains，Strive to promote the dual-cycle development of domestic and international markets，Hedging against the “high walls of small courtyards” by opening up to the outside world at a higher level，Promote the modern development of the Global South through the joint construction of the “Belt and Road”，Leading the development of an open world economy。
The new U.S. government’s economic and trade policies toward China
First, continue the tough trade policy.Tough trade policies include sweeping 10% tariffs on nearly all goods entering the United States，And a flat tariff of up to 60% will be levied on goods from China。Although the specific implementation scope and rhythm will be adjusted，But the tariff card is undoubtedly certain，This will inevitably further hit Sino-US trade，Further reduce the proportion of bilateral imports and exports in their respective exports。Judging from the actual effects of Sino-US trade friction since the first stage，Most of the additional tariffs are borne by the importer，This seriously harms the interests of American consumers and businesses，Destroying the U.S. economy and threatening its jobs，Causing a sharp rise in inflation，While alienating U.S. trading partners、Fighting the global trading system、Causing global trade disputes。
The second is to further restrict China’s investment in the United States and its acquisition of American high technology。The new U.S. government will further strengthen security review of foreign investment，Ensure effective review and blocking of Chinese investments that may threaten national security。The new U.S. government may introduce new regulations，Clearly prohibit China from developing artificial intelligence、Semiconductor、5G network、
Investment in the United States in biotechnology and other fields。In addition，Chinese companies may also be banned from participating in critical infrastructure projects in the United States，such as the power grid、Transportation and communication network, etc.。
The third is to resist the global expansion of Chinese companies.Unite allies to fight against Chinese investment and China’s overseas plans，That is, strengthening global supervision of Chinese investments through international cooperation。The Trump administration will enlist or even coerce its allies to jointly develop and implement strict and coordinated investment review standards，Establish a transnational information sharing mechanism，Timely communication and response to China’s investment activities around the world，Thus further restricting the pace of Chinese enterprises’ overseas expansion。
The fourth is to expand targeting the Chinese government、Scope and intensity of sanctions for companies and individuals。Use of economic sanctions, especially "long-arm jurisdiction"，Crack down on the international operating capabilities of Chinese companies。The new U.S. government may include more Chinese companies and individuals on the entity list and sanctions list，Freeze its assets in the United States，Restricting its transactions with U.S. businesses and financial institutions，And focus on sanctions for those suspected of participating in "stealing" American cutting-edge technology、So-called Chinese companies that “violate human rights”。
Fifth, we will also strengthen control over Chinese people in the United States.Restart or rename measures similar to the China Action Plan，Intensify scrutiny of Chinese scholars and researchers and restrict their activities in the United States，Thus setting up more obstacles for normal exchanges between Chinese in the United States and China，Achieve the purpose of technological decoupling by hindering personnel exchanges。
China’s way to crack it
What Trump’s next four years in office mean to China，Both opportunities and challenges。The challenge lies in exerting maximum pressure on China and wanton destruction of the global trading system，Even at the expense of canceling the most-favored-nation treatment (which is essentially normal trade terms) that provides mutual benefits，This will lead to a serious setback in Sino-US trade relations。However, challenges are not unforeseen，Generally speaking, our opportunities outweigh the challenges。
The new U.S. government will definitely continue to impose a blockade on China in high-tech, especially in the chip field，China needs to continue to adopt a comprehensive strategy to deal with this challenge，Solve the "stuck neck" problem。The results of strategic stalemate in the past 8 years are shown，Our comprehensive strategy is effective。In Trump 2.0 era，China can expand the space to spread risks and expand technology and market sources through international cooperation，We can also proactively adjust the layout of the global industrial chain and value chain with us as the mainstay。
The new US government will return to the path of "America First" and "Isolationism"，Fight for me the EU、Japan and other traditional allies of the United States，And open up emerging market countries to create conditions。In terms of economic cooperation with the EU，We can vigorously promote the implementation of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI)，Further opening up the market，Attract EU companies to invest in China；At the same time，Increase exports to the EU market，Promote China-EU w88 mobilecooperation in artificial intelligence、Clean energy、Joint R&D in medical and health fields，Trying to establish a China-EU Innovation Alliance，Promote technology exchange and transfer。Economic cooperation with Japan，Promote the further implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)，Strengthen trade and investment exchanges with Japan and other Asian countries。Promote the negotiation and signing of the China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Agreement，Promote regional economic integration。Through “One Belt, One Road”、"BRICS"、The “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” and other mechanisms promote the development of the Global South。Promote the reform and improvement of the global governance system，Enhance China’s voice in international affairs，Promoting the United Nations、WTO、The formulation and reform of international rules of international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund，Work with emerging market countries to deal with rule-based discrimination and rule-based bullying in developed countries in Europe and the United States。
Enhancing the contribution of the Chinese market and Chinese production capacity to the world economy。Implement the strategic deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on further comprehensively deepening reforms，Building a high-level socialist market economic system，Better use of market mechanisms；Improve the system and mechanism to promote high-quality economic development，Vigorously develop new productive forces，Promote the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy，Improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain and supply chain，Improve the ability to resist "decoupling and chain breaking"；Building a system and mechanism to support comprehensive innovation，Promote the integrated reform of educational science and technology talent system and mechanism，Winning the technological war in international competition、Talent War；Improving the high-level system and mechanism for opening up to the outside world，Build a new higher-level open economic system to hedge against "small courtyards and high walls"，Smooth the circulation system of mutual promotion between domestic and international markets，Promoting modernization of the Global South，Injecting momentum into the open world economy，Provide institutional support for true multilateralism，Maintain the authority of high-level international economic and trade rules，Leading economic globalization toward inclusive benefits、Tolerance、Green、Development in the direction of innovation。
w88 casino games(The author is the president of University of International Business and Economics)
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