(Source: China Economic Times 2024-11-27)
Core point:
Trump’s next four-year term will be both an opportunity and a challenge for China. The challenge lies in exerting maximum pressure on China and wanton destruction of the global trading system. However, the challenge is not unforeseen. Generally speaking, our opportunities outweigh the challenges.
Zhao Zhongxiu
From January to October 2024, my country's total import and export value of goods was 36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The total import and export value in U.S. dollars was 5.0676 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The international market share has basically remained stable, and the foreign w88 performance has been outstanding. One noteworthy signal is that October is usually the trough period after the peak of foreign w88 stocking. However, the import and export volume in October this year increased by 12.7% in US dollars, which is interpreted as an early action in response to the future US government's imposition of high tariffs on goods imported from China. After all, short-term centralized stocking in advance is only a drop in the bucket. How will China's foreign w88 proceed in the future? After Trump takes over the White House again, Sino-US economic and w88 relations may be greatly impacted and tested. Amidst the turbulent waves, China’s foreign w88 giant will surely brave the wind and waves and move forward bravely.
After winning the election, Trump is arranging his administrative team. Dealing with China affairs will become a focus of the future US government. The tone of China affairs in the Trump 2.0 era can be glimpsed from the "2024 Platform" approved by the Republican National Committee. The "Platform" puts forward 20 commitments, some of which are related to China, mainly focusing on two aspects: economy, w88 and national defense strength. In terms of economics and w88, the platform advocates a "patriotic America first" economic policy, promises to "rebalance w88, ensure strategic independence from China, and revitalize the status of a manufacturing superpower" and proposes to "remove China's most-favored-nation status, gradually stop importing necessities, and prevent Chinese from purchasing American real estate and industry." The future U.S. government's policy toward China will be the biggest disruptive factor in China's foreign w88 development. The solution lies in taking active measures to stabilize the industrial and supply chains, striving to promote the dual-cycle development of domestic and international markets, using a higher level of opening up to hedge against "small courtyards and high walls", promoting the modernization of the global South through the joint construction of the "Belt and Road", and leading the development of an open world economy.
The new U.S. government’s economic and w88 policies toward China
First, continue the tough w88 policy.The tough w88 policy includes a blanket tariff of 10% on almost all goods entering the United States, and flat tariffs of up to 60% on goods from China. Although the specific implementation scope and pace will be adjusted, the heavy use of tariffs is undoubtedly certain, which will inevitably further hit Sino-US w88 and further reduce the proportion of bilateral imports and exports in their respective exports. Judging from the actual effects of the Sino-U.S. w88 friction since the first stage, most of the increased tariffs are borne by importers, which has seriously harmed the interests of American consumers and businesses, hit the U.S. economy and threatened its employment, led to a sharp rise in inflation, alienated U.S. trading partners, impacted the global trading system, and triggered global w88 disputes.
The second is to further restrict China’s investment in the United States and its acquisition of American high technology.The new U.S. government will further strengthen security reviews of foreign investments to ensure effective review and block Chinese investments that may threaten national security. The new U.S. government may issue new regulations to explicitly prohibit China from developing artificial intelligence, semiconductors, 5G networks, etc.
Investment in the United States in biotechnology and other fields. In addition, Chinese companies may also be prohibited from participating in critical infrastructure projects in the United States, such as power grids, transportation and communication networks, etc.
The third is to resist the global expansion of Chinese companies.Unite allies to fight against Chinese investment and China’s overseas plans, that is, to strengthen global supervision of Chinese investment through international cooperation. The Trump administration will win over or even coerce its allies to jointly formulate and implement strict and coordinated investment review standards, establish a transnational information sharing mechanism, and promptly communicate and respond to China's investment activities around the world, thereby further restricting the pace of Chinese companies' overseas expansion of industries.
The fourth is to expand the scope and intensity of sanctions against the Chinese government, enterprises and individuals.Use economic sanctions, especially "long-arm jurisdiction", to attack the international operation capabilities of Chinese companies. The new U.S. government may add more Chinese companies and individuals to the entity list and sanctions list, freeze their assets in the U.S., restrict their transactions with U.S. companies and financial institutions, and focus on sanctioning Chinese companies suspected of participating in "theft" of cutting-edge U.S. technology and so-called "violations of human rights."
Fifth, we will also strengthen control over Chinese people in the United States.Restart or rename measures similar to the "China Action Plan" to strengthen the review of Chinese scholars and researchers and restrict their activities in the United States, thus setting up more obstacles for normal exchanges between Chinese in the United States and China, and achieving the purpose of technological decoupling by hindering personnel exchanges.
China’s way to crack it
Trump’s next four-year term will be both an opportunity and a challenge for China.The challenge is to exert maximum pressure on China and wantonly undermine the global trading system, even at the expense of canceling the most-favored-nation status (which is essentially normal w88 terms) that provides mutual benefits. This will lead to a serious setback in Sino-US w88 relations. However, challenges are not unforeseeable. Generally speaking, our opportunities outweigh the challenges.
The new U.S. government will definitely continue to impose a blockade on China in the high-tech field, especially in the chip field. China needs to continue to adopt a comprehensive strategy to deal with this challenge and solve the "stuck neck" problem. The results of strategic stalemate in the past eight years show that our comprehensive strategy is effective. In the Trump 2.0 era, China can expand its space to diversify risks and expand technology and market sources through international cooperation, and it can also proactively adjust its layout of global industrial and value chains with China as the mainstay.
The new U.S. government will return to the path of "America First" and "isolationism", creating conditions for us to win over traditional U.S. allies such as the European Union and Japan, and to open up emerging market countries. In terms of economic cooperation with the EU, we can vigorously promote the implementation of the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), further open the market, and attract EU companies to invest in China; at the same time, we can increase exports to the EU market, promote joint research and development between China and the EU in the fields of artificial intelligence, clean energy, and medical health, and try to establish a China-EU Innovation Alliance to promote technology exchanges and transfers. In terms of economic cooperation with Japan, we will promote the further implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and strengthen w88 and investment exchanges with Japan and other Asian countries. Promote the negotiation and signing of the China-Japan-ROK free w88 agreement and promote regional economic integration. Promote the development of the Global South through mechanisms such as the “One Belt and One Road”, “BRICS”, and “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”. Promote the reform and improvement of the global governance system, enhance China's voice in international affairs, promote the formulation and reform of international rules in international organizations such as the United Nations, World w88 Organization, and International Monetary Fund, and work with emerging market countries to deal with rule discrimination and rule bullying by European and American developed countries.
Enhance the contribution of the Chinese market and Chinese production capacity to the world economy. Implement the strategic deployment of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on further comprehensively deepening reforms, build a high-level socialist market economic system, and better play the role of market mechanisms; improve the system and mechanism to promote high-quality economic development, vigorously develop new productive forces, promote the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy, improve the resilience and safety level of industrial and supply chains, and improve the ability to resist "decoupling and disconnection"; build systems and mechanisms to support comprehensive innovation, and promote the integrated reform of education, science and technology talent systems and mechanisms reform, win the technology war and talent war in international competition; improve high-level opening-up systems and mechanisms, build a new higher-level open economic system to hedge against the "small courtyard and high wall", unblock the mutually reinforcing circulation system of domestic and international markets, promote the modernization of the global South, inject momentum into the open world economy, provide institutional support for true multilateralism, maintain the authority of high-level international economic and w88 rules, and lead economic globalization in the direction of universal benefit, inclusiveness, greenness, and innovation.
(The author is the president of w88 casino)
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