(Source: "Sinopec" magazine December 2024 issue)

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In general, global oil prices may be in a volatile downward trend in 2025, and oil price levels generally tend to be depressed. The average price level for the year will be significantly lower than the level in 2024, and may be between 55 and 75 US dollars/ Fluctuate within the range of the barrel.

With the profound evolution of the global political and economic landscape, the continuous acceleration of energy transformation, and the continuous advancement of energy technology innovation, the international oil market is facing unprecedented changes. In 2025, three major factors: the evolution of world energy geopolitics, the supply and demand relationship in the global oil market, and changes in the global currency market, will directly affect the trend and overall level of global oil prices.

The loose global oil supply and demand pattern is not conducive to supporting high oil prices

Global economic growth is one of the key factors affecting global oil demand. As the global economic recovery is relatively weak, global oil demand may not be able to maintain growth in 2025. The basic balance between supply and demand in the global oil market is one of the key factors in maintaining oil price stability.

(1) On the supply side, factors such as policies of major oil-producing countries, geopolitical risks and energy transition will jointly affect oil production. Overall, global oil production capacity will further increase, and there will be no problem of insufficient supply capacity.

1. Major oil producing countries continue to adjust production strategies

In 2025, the Middle East, Russia and North America will still be the main suppliers of the world oil market. However, in the face of increasingly severe climate, ecological and environmental protection and energy security challenges, these oil-producing countries are likely to continue to adjust their oil production strategies.

Middle East countries may maintain stable production by optimizing oil field development and improving extraction efficiency. As Russia continues to maintain its status as a major oil exporter, it may pay more attention to the diversification of energy exports and the development of the Far East.

w88 sports bettingAs the world's largest source of production increase, the United States has uncertain risks in its production growth rate due to the decline in oil field quality. Increasing shale oil production may face greater challenges, and the growth rate of shale oil resource development may be slower. Slow down.

In addition, oil production in countries such as Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Norway will also maintain growth momentum, thereby increasing global oil supply capacity.

2. The impact of global energy transformation and petroleum technology innovation on petroleum production

In 2025, as the global energy transformation continues to advance, the pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies of various countries around the world will continue to be vigorous. Carbon emission control and ecological environment protection policies and environmental protection regulations will continue to be tightened, which will inevitably have an impact on oil production and transportation belts. Come more challenges.

(2) On the demand side, the global economic development situation, industrial structure adjustment and energy transformation speed will profoundly change the structure and scale of oil demand. Overall, global oil consumption is expected to rebound, but due to constraints from many factors, demand growth may be very limited and not enough to create a market situation in which supply exceeds demand.

1. Weak global economic recovery affects oil demand growth

According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to rebound in 2025. However, the complexity and variability of global economic recovery and development have also brought uncertainty to the global oil consumption market. Many factors such as trade frictions, debt risks and geopolitics will make global economic growth full of uncertainty.

In general, the economic recovery process of developed countries in Europe and the United States is not as expected, and the oil market demand may become saturated and gradually decline. Although the U.S. economic development maintains a "weak but not declining" trend among Western developed countries, there are obvious uncertainties in its economic growth prospects, especially the U.S. first and trade protectionist policies that Trump may adopt after taking office.

It is foreseeable that emerging economies’ oil consumption demand will grow in 2025 and will continue to occupy an important position in the global oil consumption market. Although the Asia-Pacific region will still be a strong driving force for global economic recovery or growth, it will be difficult to replicate the high growth trend of past decades in 2025, and the driving force for oil demand growth will not be as strong as before, making it difficult to generate fundamental growth.

With the implementation of my country's fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, and the effects gradually appearing, the economic growth momentum may recover, which may lead to a recovery in the transportation and logistics industries. The oil market consumer demand is expected to w88 mobilerebound slightly, but electric vehicles The continued acceleration of automobile market penetration is bound to partially offset the rebound in oil consumption. The Indian economy is expected to maintain rapid growth and oil consumption demand will continue to increase.

In the past two years, global refining profits have generally returned to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the successive commissioning of new refining units has also led to divergent demand trends for crude oil and refined oil. In 2025, it is expected that global refining profits may show a downward trend, which will restrict the enthusiasm of refineries to start operations, thereby narrowing the differentiation gap between crude oil and refined oil and increasing the sensitivity of crude oil prices to the growth in consumer demand for refined oil.

2. The accelerated pace of global energy transformation inhibits the growth of oil demand

Driven by multiple pressures such as climate change, ecological balance, environmental protection, and increasingly prominent energy security issues, the current global energy consumption structure is accelerating optimization and adjustment, and the trend of energy consumption diversification has become more obvious. Renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy and hydro energy will receive more attention and application, and their proportion in global energy consumption will gradually increase.

In 2025, the development of global renewable energy is expected to maintain a strong growth momentum. In particular, the continuous advancement and cost reduction of clean energy technologies such as photovoltaic power generation and wind power have led to the continuous optimization and adjustment of the energy consumption structure. The proportion of fossil energy consumption is still will continue to decline, and the traditional oil consumption system will face impact.

In 2025, the global transportation industry will accelerate its transition to low-carbon energy. New energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, will develop rapidly, which will continue to hinder the growth of global oil consumption demand. With the recovery of the aviation industry and the green transformation of the shipping industry, the conversion of aviation fuel will also accelerate, and the demand for petroleum fuel will gradually be restricted.

The evolving trend of global financial markets is not conducive to supporting high oil prices

With the continuous development of the oil futures market and the innovation of financial derivatives, oil is no longer a simple commodity and has strong financial attributes. Investor sentiment and market expectations often have a significant impact on global oil prices, sometimes even exceeding the impact of fundamental factors in oil supply and demand.

In 2025, the direction of monetary policies of major economies will also be one of the key factors driving changes in energy prices. In order to alleviate inflationary pressure and maintain the relative stability of currency values, some countries w88 slotmay adjust their exchange rate policies, which will in turn affect the import and export trade terms and price levels of other countries.

From the perspective of the actual global oil market, the value of the US dollar directly affects the level of oil prices. According to preliminary research and judgment, the Federal Reserve is likely to change its monetary policy in 2025, from continuing to raise interest rates to stabilizing interest rates or slightly cutting interest rates. The U.S. dollar will shift from continued appreciation to depreciation, and a strong U.S. dollar will become a weak U.S. dollar, thus curbing the rise in oil prices priced in U.S. dollars.

Geopolitical evolution will still cause short-term fluctuations in oil prices

Geopolitical factors have always been an important variable affecting international oil prices. In 2025, uncertainties and risks in the global oil supply chain will continue to increase. Geopolitical instability in oil resource countries, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and strategic games between major powers may lead to interruptions in oil supply or reductions in oil exports, which in turn will lead to global

In the Middle East, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue, and the cloud of the Iraq-Israel war remains. If the conflict around the Palestinian issue intensifies or the war escalates, it will definitely have a direct impact on the oil supply in the Middle East, thereby impacting international oil prices; in addition, the United States The deep-seated conflicts in Iran are likely to continue after Trump takes office. If the United States imposes more stringent oil sanctions on Iran, it will inevitably lead to a decline in the Middle East’s oil supply capacity, which will have a certain impact on the balance of supply and demand in the global oil market and will inevitably lead to

In Europe, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the end of the conflict has not yet been seen. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, especially if Russia and Ukraine target energy facilities, or if Trump’s mediation efforts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine end in vain, it will inevitably have a major impact on the European energy supply pattern and trigger a

In the Americas, if Trump imposes more stringent oil sanctions on Venezuela, it will inevitably make it more difficult for Venezuela to increase oil production, further reduce oil supply, and is not conducive to the stability of international oil prices.

In addition, security threats such as terrorist activities and pirate attacks will also pose challenges to global oil transportation security, which will in turn affect the improvement of global oil supply capabilities and have a driving effect on the fluctuation or rise of international oil prices in the short term.

(The author is the Executive Dean of China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, University of International Business and Economics)

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