Summary of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement Research Report

Joint Research Group of the Institute of International w88 and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, Nankai University, and w88 casino

Currently, cross-Strait relations have made positive progress on the track of peaceful development, and cross-Strait economic and w88 exchanges and cooperation have become closer. Against the background of the increasing trend of global economic integration, especially regional economic cooperation, signing a cross-Strait economic cooperation agreement and accelerating the establishment of an economic cooperation mechanism with cross-Strait characteristics will be conducive to rapidly and comprehensively deepening cross-Strait economic cooperation on the existing basis, conducive to a more effective allocation of cross-Strait economic resources in the world economy, and conducive to both sides of the Strait jointly coping with the challenges of adverse factors such as the international financial crisis. In order to quantitatively assess the impact of the cross-strait economic cooperation agreement on the mainland economy, the joint research group of the Institute of International w88 and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, Nankai University, and the w88 casino used the computable general equilibrium model (hereinafter referred to asCGE) conducted simulation analysis and made relevant suggestions.

1. Analysis of the Current Situation of Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation

From the perspective of the scale of cross-strait economic cooperation,2008The scale of cross-strait w88 reached1292.2USD, of which the mainland’s exports to Taiwan are258.8USD, mainland China’s imports from Taiwan reached1033.4USD. Taiwan has become mainland China's seventh largest trading partner, ninth largest export market and fifth largest source of imports, while mainland China is Taiwan's largest trading partner, export market and source of w88 surplus. Up to now, mainland China has approved a total of Taiwan-funded projects7.910,000, accumulated actual direct investment from Taiwan488billion US dollars, Taiwan is the fifth largest source of overseas investment in mainland China.

From the perspective of cross-strait w88 structure, the processing w88 activities engaged in by Taiwan-funded enterprises in mainland China affect the cross-strait w88 structure to a great extent. About half of cross-strait w88 is caused by Taiwan-funded enterprises in the mainland. Taiwan is the most important upstream supplier of raw materials and intermediate goods for Taiwan-funded enterprises in the mainland. The top categories of products exported from mainland China to Taiwan are electronic products, mechanical equipment, basic metals, chemical products, and other manufactured products (feathers, ceramics, pearls, etc.); the top categories of products imported from Taiwan are electronic products, other manufactured products (feathers, ceramics, pearls, etc.), chemical products, mechanical equipment, and basic metals.

Currently, the mainland is fully open to Taiwanese goods, but Taiwan has not fulfilled its obligations in joining the World w88 Organization (hereinafter referred to asWTO), still banned from mainland China2194kinds of goods are imported into the island, accounting for 1% of all imported goods in Taiwan20.3%, which includes agricultural products834species, industrial product1360Species. These unreasonable restrictions have affected the normal conduct of cross-Strait w88 and are not conducive to the in-depth development of cross-Strait economic and w88 cooperation.

II. Assessment of the impact of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement on the mainland economy

In order to more scientifically and objectively assess the impact of the signing of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement on the mainland economy, the joint research team set up the assumptions of the model based on the development of cross-Strait economic relations and the current status of economic cooperation in surrounding regions. That is, mainland China, Japan, and South Korea will establish free w88 zones with ASEAN respectively to achieve zero tariffs on products (referred to as three "10+1”), set according to the degree of cross-strait w88 liberalization from high to low4options to evaluate the impact of the signing of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement on various indicators of the mainland economy (see the table below).

The impact of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement on the mainland economy

(1) Impact on mainland economic indicators

To evaluate the impact of bilateral tariff concessions or w88 liberalization on various economies, the following indicators are usually combined as the main judgment criteria, that is, the impact of bilateral tariff concessions and economic cooperation on the welfare levels of all parties, and the actual impact on all partiesGDP's impact on the import and export w88 of all parties, as well as its impact on specific industry output, import and export, etc.

Specifically, the impact of tariff concessions on mainland ChinaGDPGrowth has a positive impact, the growth rate will increase0.63-0.67Percentage points, including three10+1, especially the benefits gained from the free w88 agreement between China and ASEAN. If the impact of these factors is deducted and only the impact of the cross-strait economic cooperation agreement on the mainland's economy is considered, the mainlandGDPGrowth rate will increase0.36-0.4Percentage points.

In several simulation scenarios, the welfare level of mainland China has improved, about90$100 million to93Billion US dollars.

With the growth of cross-strait investment and import and export w88, it will also drive the growth of employment in the mainland.

The reduction of cross-strait tariffs and the elimination of w88 barriers will effectively promote the development of mainland's foreign import and export w88, and mainland imports and exports will also likely grow. More importantly, cross-strait w88 liberalization will also greatly promote the development of w88 between the two sides. In the plan1Chinese, between both sides of the Taiwan Strait2231750_31847

In several simulation scenarios, mainland China’s w88 terms have improved to a certain extent.

(2) Impact on mainland industrial sectors

Usually, the higher the degree of liberalization, the more conducive it is to the overall economic and welfare growth, but for each industrial sector, the degree of benefit and loss will be different. In the most liberalized scheme1In China, cross-strait tariff concessions have not had a great impact on the output of various industries in the mainland. The main reason is that the mainland's economy is large and exports to Taiwan account for a low proportion of the mainland's total exports.

From a specific industry perspective, mainland China22Among the industrial sectors, cross-strait w88 liberalization will increase13The output level of each industry, among which electronic products, basic metals, automobiles and accessories, other means of transportation (railway locomotives, spacecraft, ships, etc.), other agricultural products and other industries are the top five in terms of output growth, increasing respectively7.14%、4.44%、3.56%、1.85%、1.37%。

Others9The output of several industries will decline slightly, with the output of food, textiles, paper products and printed matter, chemicals, forest products and other industries all falling by1%Within. The output of the four industries of other manufactured products (feathers, ceramics, pearls, etc.), wood products, clothing and footwear, and leather products decreased by1%-3%between.

(3) Research conclusion

The research results show that in the context of deepening regional economic cooperation, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will gradually eliminate w88 barriers and realize the free flow of production factors through the negotiation and signing of economic cooperation agreements, which will enable the two sides to rationally allocate resources and give full play to benefits. It will be conducive to expanding the field of cross-Strait economic cooperation, expanding the scale of cross-Strait economic cooperation, deepening the level of cooperation, accelerating the liberalization and facilitation of cross-Strait w88 and investment, and having a positive impact on the economic and w88 growth of the mainland. At the same time, we should also note that certain industries in mainland China will be affected by the reallocation of resources among industries. This requires industrial upgrading and structural adjustment to promote development and reduce adverse effects. It should be noted that,CGEThe results of model simulation are mainly to draw a directional conclusion, which will be different from what will actually happen in the future.

3. Relevant Suggestions

(1) Gradually and orderly advance the cross-strait economic cooperation agreement.The cross-Strait economic cooperation agreement will inevitably cover a wide range of content in the future, and also involve the development of various industries on both sides of the strait. It may be difficult to reach a consensus on everything in a short period of time. Based on the principle of first getting easier and then getting more difficult, and step by step, we can first reach an overall framework arrangement through consultation on the normalization, institutionalization, and liberalization of cross-strait economic relations, and then gradually negotiate each individual issue. For a few goods and a few service industries that both sides are concerned about and need to reduce taxes or open up as soon as possible, "early harvest" should be a feasible way.

(2) Normalize cross-strait economic relations as soon as possible.Although the scale of cross-strait economic cooperation is large, there are still some basic economic and w88 exchanges that cannot be carried out normally. For example, the export of some goods from the mainland to Taiwan is restricted, investment in Taiwan is restricted, Taiwan does not open high-end industries to invest in the mainland, etc. This restriction not only hinders the expansion and deepening of cross-Strait economic exchanges and cooperation, but is also conducive to the smooth advancement of cross-Strait economic cooperation agreements. Both sides areWTOMembers should treat each other equally and eliminate discriminatory restrictions. This should be achieved through a cross-strait economic cooperation agreement.

(3) Give consideration to the interests of both parties and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.In order to take care of the interests of Taiwan compatriots, the mainland2005Since 2009, the mainland has unilaterally introduced dozens of policies and measures to benefit Taiwan. This year, the mainland has adopted a number of measures including purchasing from Taiwan to support Taiwan-related industries in coping with the international financial crisis. According to past practice, the economic cooperation agreement between the two economies should be based on the principle of mutual benefit and win-win. In future negotiations on cross-Strait economic cooperation agreements, the interests of both sides should also be taken into consideration and a win-win situation will be achieved, which will be more conducive to the economic development and cooperation between the two sides. In practice, due to different levels of economic development, the mainland's average tariff level is higher than that of Taiwan, and the development level of some industries is also lower. In the process of cross-strait economic and w88 liberalization, the mainland will bear greater pressure to reduce taxes and will face certain impacts. The above model evaluation also reflects this aspect. Some companies have reported that Taiwan is a highly open economy. After the two sides sign an economic cooperation agreement, if goods or services from a third place enter the mainland through Taiwan, it may have an adverse impact on mainland industries. It is hoped that Taiwan’s industry will also fully consider the mainland’s demands, so that it will be more conducive to the advancement of the cross-strait economic cooperation agreement.

(4) Strengthen cross-strait industrial cooperation.Strengthening industrial cooperation is the common voice of the industries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Within the framework of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Agreement, establishing a cross-Strait industrial cooperation mechanism, jointly formulating the overall goals of industrial cooperation, key industrial cooperation contents, and implementing them in stages should be an important model for cross-Strait industrial cooperation.