w88 casino News Network (Correspondent Ye Wenrui, Xiong Lili)On November 17, 2022, the famous lecture hall of Qiusuo Academy of w88 casino ushered in the first wonderful lecture. Professor Yan Ji'an, a famous Chinese mathematician and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, gave a very vivid lecture to our undergraduate students on the topic of "Probability Breaks Mysteries, Statistics Solve Confusion".
Academician Yan Ji’an is an academic leader in the fields of probability theory, stochastic analysis and financial mathematics in my country. He atHe was elected as an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1999 and is currently a researcher at the Institute of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Academician Yan won the second prize of the National Natural Science Award in 1993. In 2002, he was invited to give a 45-minute report at the 24th International Congress of Mathematicians. In 2006, he won the Ho Leung Ho Lee Foundation Science and Technology Progress Award. In 2007, he won the Hua Luogeng Mathematics Award. In May 2010, he was elected as a Fellow of the International Society of Mathematical Statistics.
Before the lecture began, Vice President Wu Weixing delivered a speech on behalf of the w88 casino, accepting Academician Yan Jia'an“Qiusu Academy” expresses its heartfelt thanks for inviting and bringing the first academy lecture to the teachers and students of w88 casino. At the same time, it encourages students of the University of w88 and Economics: Under the epidemic, youth cannot be let down and growth cannot be delayed. They must take active actions, persist in learning, and broaden their horizons.
In the lecture, Academician Yan Ji’an passed14 vivid examples illustrate to us his understanding of the nature of probability and statistics.
Random is not random, probability breaks the mystery.
Disorder is hidden in order, and statistical solutions are confusing.
atAmong 50 people, the probability that at least two people have the same birthday is as high as 97%. But even if the number of people is increased to 125 and a day is selected in advance, the probability that someone will have a birthday on that day is only about 30%. Although this set of conclusions conflicts with people's intuition, using probability as a tool, we can characterize these two random events very rigorously.
Throw three dice at the same time, although the sum of the points isThere are 6 situations each of 9 and 10, but experience tells us that there are more chances of 10 than 9. By rigorously calculating the probability of two events occurring, we can verify that this experience is correct.
In the guessing game, the host placed a car behind one door and a goat behind each of the other two doors. After the contestant chooses a door, the host opens the other two doors with goats hidden in them, and then asks the contestant if they need to change their guess. It seems that the probability of a car appearing behind each door is the same, but by calculating the probability, we will find that the probability of guessing the car is2/3, and if you insist on not changing your guess, the probability of getting the car is only 1/3.
Academician Yan used these three examples to tell us that we cannot randomly guess the possibility of random events based on intuition, but should use probability as a tool to analyze rigorously.
Academician Yan Ji'an also explained conditional probability and Bayesian formula to the students, and further explained to the students through the following examples how to use probability as a tool to solve the mystery behind practical problems.
When conducting social surveys on certain sensitive issues, we can design an auxiliary question in advance, and decide by waiting for the possibility of randomly catching the ball to decide whether the person being investigated answers this sensitive question or the auxiliary question. As long as we know the auxiliary problemThe corresponding probabilities of positive answers and negative answers respectively, then we can calculate the survey results of sensitive questions based on the questionnaire.
There are blue and green taxis in a certain city. After an eyewitness identified the lessor responsible for the accident as blue, the public security agency conducted a test on him. The test results showed that the probability that the eyewitness could give a correct conclusion under the same environment was80%, so does this mean that the probability of the car causing the accident being blue is 80%? In fact, this is not the case. The ratio between the number of blue and green taxis in the city is also an important factor. If the ratio of the number of blue and green taxis is 3:17, then the probability that the car causing the accident is actually blue is only 41%.
How to evaluate the confirmation rate of disease diagnosis? Is the probability of winning the lottery related to the order in which the lot is drawn? Which of the two formats, best-of-three or best-of-five, is more beneficial to strong players? Academician Yan used probability as a tool to analyze and explain these issues to the students one by one.
In addition, Academician Yan Ji'an also explained several statistics-related issues to the students, such as Simpson's Paradox,The trap of "statistical average" and the dependence of sampling survey results on the sample size. Through these examples, Academician Yan showed the students the research ideas of statistics and scientifically analyzed and inferred the hidden patterns behind the characteristics and phenomena of the population based on samples.
Finally, Academician Yan ended with the Kelly formula and the German tank problem, fully demonstrating to the students the powerful power of probability and statistics, as well as the important role they play in applied disciplines and people's daily lives.
In the Q&A session, w88 casino of StatisticsDeanLiu Lixin and lecture host, Academic Affairs OfficeDirectorZhuang Rui discussed with Academician Yan Jia'an the development of the financial mathematics discipline and how to strengthen general education in universities.
The "Qiusuo Academy - Famous Lecture Hall" is open to all undergraduates in the w88 casino. The guest speakers are all well-known experts or outstanding figures in various subject fields at home and abroad. The relevant activities strive to inherit and carry forward the excellent traditional Chinese culture, promote the integration of East and West, the connection between ancient and modern times, the penetration of liberal arts and science, absorb the essence of human civilization, and grow into young talents who dare to venture into society and dare to be the first in the world.
