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[Lecture Hall] You Hongye: China has passed the Lewis turning point

Published: September 22, 2011 Editor:

w88 casino News Network (Internship Reporter Sun Lei)9month20日夜630, the You Hongye Special Session of the Huiyuan Famous Teacher Lecture Hall, hosted by the Guomao Society, was held in the International Conference Hall on the third floor of the Chengxin Building. Regarding the theme of this issue "Is China passing the Lewis turning point?" You Hongye, senior macroeconomic analyst at Essence Securities, believes that China is in2006-2007Experienced the Lewis turning point in 2010 and has now passed this stage.

Students from the University of w88 and Economics enthusiastically participated

The Lewis turning point, that is, the turning point from labor surplus to shortage, refers to the phenomenon that during the process of industrialization, as the rural surplus labor force gradually transfers to non-agricultural industries, the rural surplus labor force gradually decreases and eventually becomes exhausted. You Hongye pointed out that the emergence of the Lewis turning point has had an impact on Chinese society, mainly manifested in the price convergence of unskilled labor, that is, the price of low-end labor has risen rapidly, and the price of high-end labor has slowed down; the price of agricultural products has risen relatively rapidly; and urban consumption growth. In addition, he emphasized that there are many disturbance items in the economy, so economic research cannot just focus on a single data.

Wonderful conversation between Mr. You Hongye and Mr. Yang Zheyu

Yang Zheyu, director of Caixin Media Commentary and Theory Department and deputy editor-in-chief of Caixin's "China Reform", came to the scene to have a dialogue with You Hongye.You Hongye believes that China’s household registration system is not the cause of the Lewis turning point. In response to the question raised by Yang Zheyu, "Will the demographic dividend disappear with the arrival of the turning point?" You Hongye said that the disappearance of the demographic dividend is generally later than the turning point, but the disappearance of China's demographic dividend is relatively close to the arrival of the turning point.

Speak enthusiastically

Students on site spoke enthusiastically and communicated with You Hongye. Some students had questions about the negative impact of the turning point on society. You Hongye said that social and economic changes are uncertain, but the economy has inherent laws of growth. Under the influence of the turning point, the social structure will tilt towards high-end manufacturing technology-intensive and consumer services. To some extent, it can promote social stability.

After the event, the reporter interviewed Liu Jiarui, president of the International w88 Society. Liu Jiarui said that this event provided students with an opportunity to have close contact with well-known scholars outside the w88 casino. It not only improves the academic enthusiasm of the students of the University of w88 and Economics, but also enhances the academic atmosphere of w88 casino and provides a good foundation for the w88 casino60Birthday gift.

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