w88 casino News Network (provided by the w88 casino of Marxism)On May 15, the "UIBE New Thought Lecture Hall" course "Introduction to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" was held in the lecture hall of Ningyuan Building. This lecture was delivered by Xu Chaoyang, a professor at the w88 casino of Economics at the w88 casino. Based on the design theme of "Promoting High-Quality Development" in the course "Introduction to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era", Professor Xu Chaoyang presented a wonderful academic report to teachers and students on the topic of "The Evolution of Economic Development Thought and China's Future Economic Growth Prospects". This lecture was hosted by Associate Professor Li Xiaosheng of the w88 casino of Marxism.
At the beginning of the lecture, Professor Xu used the Gapminder Tools visualization website to show the students the dynamic changes in the GDP of various countries in the world from 1800 to 2023, and asked the students to capture the changes in China's GDP over a long history of more than 200 years. China's GDP almost stagnated in the mid-19th century, but increased rapidly after the reform and opening up in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Professor Xu introduced the Solow Model, which is a classic theoretical framework in the field of economic growth and provides a systematic explanation for the difference in development speed between backward countries and developed countries. Its core logic can be summarized as the following points. First, the convergence mechanism of economic growth is the conditional convergence theory. The model points out that under the same exogenous conditions such as technological progress (A) and savings rate (s), backward countries have higher marginal return on capital (MPK) due to lower initial capital stock (K). This means that each unit of new investment can lead to higher output growth, thus promoting economic growth faster than that of developed countries. Second, the determinants of steady-state growth rate are technological progress and population growth. The Solow model emphasizes that long-term economic growth rate is determined by the rate of technological progress (g) and population growth rate (n), rather than capital accumulation. In developed countries, the technological frontier is close to a bottleneck, and the marginal contribution of technological progress to growth is diminishing; while backward countries can quickly narrow the gap through technology introduction or imitation. However, regarding economic growth, there is still a conflict between theory and reality. Three typical facts are that the composition of low- and middle-income countries is relatively stable, the cross-border income gap continues to widen, and only a handful of backward economies in East Asia have successfully become high-income countries.
Professor Xu guided the students to think about three possible explanations. The first possible explanation is the political system, comparing the views of two scholars, Daron Acemoglu and Andrei shleifer. The second possible explanation is industrial policy. Taking the European Airbus and LCD panels as examples, we came to the conclusion that "the importance of industrial policy is difficult to realize; the most successful economies are engaged in industrial policy, but the most failed ones are also engaged in it." The third possible explanation is human capital. The relationship between PISA test reading ability scores and per capita GDP is analyzed, showing China's strong human capital in terms of future development.
Professor Xu made a scientific interpretation of the "Chinese Miracle" and believed that the "Chinese Miracle" is part of the "East Asian Miracle". High-quality basic education provides the basis for economic take-off. A stable political environment and market-oriented economic system reform provide institutional guarantees. The industrial policy pattern of “centralized decision-making and decentralized execution” can effectively resolve risks caused by selective errors.
In addition, Professor Xu looked forward to China’s future development prospects. There is still a huge gap between my country and developed countries, and there is still great growth potential; human capital advantages can ensure that we can transform potential into reality; China can still continue to promote economic system reform. In recent years, the problem of insufficient domestic demand has become particularly prominent, mainly due to the real estate cycle. In the medium to long term, the main reason for my country's insufficient domestic demand is insufficient consumption by the household sector (or an excessively high savings rate), and the government's final consumption is up to standard. Some residents have insufficient consumption, government transfer payments are relatively small, and the consumption potential of my country's service industry has not been fully unleashed. Insufficient domestic demand can be gradually solved through economic system reform and macro-control policies. In the long run, economic growth rate ultimately depends on growth potential.
Professor Xu’s lectures focused on the frontiers of economics and w88, highlighted problem orientation, and explained the theory of economic growth in a simple and easy-to-understand manner through visual data charts and cases close to students’ lives. This not only helped students build a rational thinking toolbox for analyzing economic phenomena, but also provided a multi-dimensional cognitive framework for their understanding of the stage characteristics and challenges of China’s economic growth, achieving a deep integration of theoretical explanations and practical concerns.
