Editor’s note: Right now10month125914_595319Held on the day. How can Trump, who has absolutely no experience in governing and frequently makes shocking remarks, and is controversial within the party and across the country, be able to survive all the way?Is it close to the presidency? The following is the Eurasian Group (Eurasia Group) President Ian Bremer(Ian Bremmer) analysis of this.
Economics:Hollowing out of US middle and working class, glocalization and US leadership on global issues isn't actually working for a large swathe of the American public. They want to go after the establishment; "kick the bums out," and Trump is an ample opportunity to do that.
Identity Politics:Obama is America's first black president, and I personally think that's pretty cool. But there's not much recognition that a lot of older white people feel they can no longer identify with what the United States today looks like. Younger Americans are much more multicultural--particularly Hispanic. They generally support immigration. They're much less religious. They're more likely to support drug legalization, oppose the death penalty, support gay marriage. Obama has empowered all of these views...while not having much time for those "clinging to their guns and their religion" as he put it. Trump is a big "screw you"to all of those people.
Social Media:Trump is a master. I'd say he's the world's most effective troll with a truly significant following. He had vastly more followers than any other Republican candidate (only Ben Carson was close). And the twitter folk tell me that despite having roughly as many followers as Hillary, he had 10x the impressions in the past month. That's the way more and more peoplegetting their news...and it also is framed by the candidate himself (which the mainstream media then picks up on), rather than having the agenda set by someone else.
There are other reasons--ability to be an "everyman" aspirational rich person as opposed to the more effete/cosmopolitanism of Romney; narcissism that allows for relentless"I'm the greatest"which plays better than you might think in politics; extremely effective speechmaking through repetition of simple slogans, etc.
