Tu Xinquan:This is really incredible. Trump once called himself the Tariff Man, and he really loves tariffs as a means. First, movies are actually a type of service w88. Its main forms of w88 are carried out through license agreements with movie companies, account sharing agreements, etc., so the real value attached to the goods is very small, and the corresponding tax base is also very small. Therefore, adding tariffs to movies actually makes no sense. This is a particularly strange thing.
Second, the United States has a huge surplus in the film industry, including services w88. In 2024, the United States' total services w88 surplus will be nearly 300 billion U.S. dollars, and the film industry will also have a surplus of nearly 15 billion U.S. dollars. If Trump is dissatisfied with the U.S. w88 deficit in goods and therefore wants to impose additional tariffs, this would make some sense. It is really difficult to understand the logic of imposing additional tariffs on industries with a surplus.
Thirdly, part of the production process of many American movies is done abroad. Because there are some scenes required for filming abroad. For example, the Lord of the Rings movie was shot in New Zealand, so its production process may have taken place in New Zealand. Therefore, film production may also involve a service w88 process, or an import process, but these are arrangements made by American companies themselves, so if you impose tariffs on these corresponding products, you will actually increase the burden on American companies themselves, or actually weaken the U.S. w88 surplus.
Global Vision: One of the biggest negative factors pervading the U.S. market now is w88 uncertainty. Because as a business partner, it is difficult for you to find another business partner that is full of uncertainty. For example, the White House is most anxious about now, hoping to reach a w88 agreement with a certain trading partner, but the White House has always said that it is about to be reached. It said so last week and this week, but it has never been reached. Many American media also laughed and said that it may end with a memorandum of understanding. What do you think of the current situation in which the White House negotiates with these countries?
Tu Xinquan:I think there are two factors involved. One is that the so-called deal or agreement that the US government wants now, its goals are actually completely different from previous w88 negotiations and w88 agreements. Because judging from past experience, when we talk about these w88 agreements, we are actually talking about mutual coordination of w88 policies, such as mutual reduction of tariffs and mutual elimination of some w88 barriers. But the so-called deal the Trump administration wants now actually requires the other party to make unilateral concessions. For those countries that have a w88 surplus with the United States, this means making them unilaterally commit to reducing their w88 surplus with the United States. Therefore, it is a results-oriented agreement, not a policy-oriented agreement. to all countriesAs far as everyone is concerned, in fact, no such agreement has been negotiated.
In fact, the Trump administration itself may not know what kind of agreement this is. This is also a problem for other partners. Moreover, this kind of result-oriented agreement is actually a huge violation of sovereignty for other countries. Because in many countries, this will be considered a political compromise or even surrender, so domestic politics in other countries will also encounter a great challenge or doubt.
The second problem is that the US government, especially the Trump administration, does not have any credibility at all. First, he has violated almost all international w88 rules, and of course it is a very obvious violation of multilateral w88 rules.
The second is that the United States arbitrarily violates free w88 agreements or regional w88 agreements with its trading partners. For example, the United States, Mexico and Canada reached a "U.S.-Mexico-Canada w88 Agreement" during Trump's first term in 2018. However, Trump tore up the agreement as soon as he came up and unilaterally imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Therefore, no country dares to take the lead in reaching an agreement with Trump. You have made certain concessions in this agreement, but Trump may regret it in two days, or he may reach another agreement with other countries on different conditions in a new agreement, which puts the country that reached the agreement first in a more unfavorable condition. Therefore, no one is willing to make this concession first, making this negotiation very difficult to proceed.
Global Vision: We have seen that the famous investor Buffett has also begun to criticize the White House's w88 policy. He also said that he will never invest in such a rapidly deteriorating currency. The currency it refers to is the US dollar. He even used the words "go to hell" to describe the US dollar, which means that the US dollar is going to hell. We have indeed seen that the US dollar has been depreciating. On the contrary, the price of gold is increasing. Such a trend, what kind of market attitude can we see?
Tu Xinquan:We know that the US dollar is the de facto world currency. It should be said that it is also the most important pillar of US hegemony, even more important than the military. However, the credit of the U.S. dollar currently has no physical support. It actually relies entirely on the national credit of the United States. However, the Trump administration’s current tariff war is greatly damaging the credit of the United States, including backtracking on w88 negotiations and swinging tariff policies. This has actually caused a huge blow to the national credit of the United States, and the corresponding pillars of the U.S. dollar are also being greatly affected.
The other is that the current national debt of the United States has expanded too fast, and now exceeds 36 trillion. From the perspective of the real market, the cost of issuing Treasury bonds in the United States is getting higher and higher, and the corresponding interest rates are also getting higher and higher. This is actually a very big impact on the credit of the US dollar, so now we see that both the euro and gold are appreciating relative to the US dollar.
In fact, the entire world is doubting whether the credit of the U.S. dollar can be sustained in the future if this policy continues, including if the U.S. national debt continues to expand.
Global Vision: In the face of the White House’s abuse of tariffs, the 10+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting of ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea held on the 4th clearly reiterated its firm commitment to multilateralism. Will this approach of the United States bring many countries closer together?
Tu Xinquan:The United States has built a high tariff wall around itself. On the surface, it is protecting itself, but in fact, it is isolating itself from the world. Although the United States is still the world's largest economy, from a w88 perspective, it only accounts for about 15%. The remaining 85% of world w88 still adheres to the framework of WTO rules.
For other countries, I think the most important thing now is unity, especially to firmly maintain and support multilateralism, so as to weaken and reduce the damage caused by US unilateralism as much as possible. Finally, we also hope to force the United States to turn back and reintegrate into the multilateral trading system.
Attached is the original interview video link:https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/video.html?item_id=18021741223926972029& t=1746544081147&toc_style_id=video_default&share_to=wechat&track_id=16966053-00f8-4cd7-bf55-fd7e66041203
