(Source: "People's Daily (Overseas Edition)" 2025-07-22)

Recently, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced during his visit to Beijing that the U.S. government has approved the resumption of exports of w88 login chips to China. The w88 login chip is an AI chip specially designed for the Chinese market by Nvidia in accordance with the U.S. technology export control requirements to China. Its performance is far inferior to that of the mainstream GPU chip H100 in the international market. In April this year, the United States banned the sale of this chip to some countries, including China, on the grounds of national security. As soon as the ban came out, Nvidia faced an inventory loss of US$4.5 billion due to the unsaleable w88 login, and was forced to make an impairment of US$5.5 billion. The market value once evaporated by US$160 billion. Why did the United States resume w88 login chip sales to China? What impact will this policy adjustment have on China’s artificial intelligence industry? What should Chinese chip companies do in the future? In this regard, a reporter from "People's Daily" (overseas edition) conducted an exclusive interview with Professor Zhang Xin of our college. The following is the full text of the interview.

Why the ban was lifted

Weigh the pros and cons, use retreat to advance

Reporter:In the context of the current global artificial intelligence competition and competition for technological sovereignty, what strategic considerations does the United States’ adjustment to export policies such as w88 login chips reflect? Does it mean that the US technology containment strategy against China has changed?

Zhang Xin：The "relaxation" of the U.S. export policy on w88 login chips and other products is not a shift in strategic goals, but a phased adjustment of strategic tools. Its underlying intention has never changed: to gain the upper hand in the long-term game between China and the United States and ensure the United States’ global leadership in key technological fields such as artificial intelligence.

Under this framework, chip sanctions are regarded by Washington as a "trump card" that can be played at any time. Although the marginal utility of this card is diminishing, playing it at this time and using retreat to advance can yield more realistic strategic benefits in the short term.

Reporter:Why did the United States choose to lift the ban at this time? Is the reason behind it driven by market interests or due to multiple factors? How is the importance of the Chinese market to U.S. chip companies such as Nvidia reflected in this process?

Zhang Xin：The core of this choice lies in weighing the costs and benefits of continuing the ban: on the one hand, the cost of maintaining the ban has far exceeded its strategic returns; on the other hand, releasing this bargaining chip under specific negotiation scenarios can actually obtain more attractive stage benefits for the United States. Specifically, the United States initially restricted the export of high-end chips to China on the grounds of "national security" in order to curb the rise of China's technology. However, for "special edition" chips such as w88 login, the rationality of continued blockade is being weakened by several realities.

First, the assumption of military use lacks empirical basis. Some overseas experts have analyzed that the Chinese military will actively avoid U.S. technology due to risk considerations, and China has sufficient reserves of computing power and does not need to rely on U.S. chips.

Second, the rise of China’s domestic chips further weakens the significance of the ban. The performance of many domestic artificial intelligence chips has surpassed w88 login in some areas. Huawei's paper shows that the measured efficiency of the new generation 910C has exceeded the level of NVIDIA H100. Continuing to block w88 login will no longer be able to effectively retard China's AI development.

More importantly, maintaining the ban will cost American companies a heavy price. Nvidia faced an inventory loss of US$4.5 billion due to the unsaleable w88 login, and was forced to make an impairment provision of US$5.5 billion. Its market value once evaporated by US$160 billion. Huang Renxun warned that if China loses its AI chip market, which will reach US$50 billion in the next few years, the United States will face a triple loss of "income, taxation, and employment."

In addition, American technology giants such as Oracle and Google have purchased and deployed GB200 on a large scale, and the United States’ leading edge in AI infrastructure has not been shaken by w88 login exports.

Based on the balance, deregulation is more in line with the current interests of the United States.

Huang Renxun traveled back and forth between China and the United States three times in half a year. He not only promised the Trump administration to "strengthen U.S. AI leadership", but also made a high-profile announcement of long-term cooperation in China, which accelerated the policy shift. China's huge market size determines that any "decoupling" will backfire on the United States itself. As analysts at research firm Gartner said, "Except for China, there is no other market in the world that can digest such a large-scale chip inventory."

Reporter:In addition to resuming w88 login sales, Nvidia also announced that it will launch new compliance chips for the Chinese market. What are the implications of this move from a market strategy and legal perspective?

Zhang Xin：From a market strategy perspective, the core purpose is to maintain its market share in China and recover from the business decline caused by export restrictions. Nvidia's shipments and profits took a big hit during the lockdown. Huang Renxun has repeatedly warned that continued blockade will cause Nvidia to "permanently lose the Chinese market." In fact, during the short three-month lock-up period, Chinese manufacturers have quickly filled the market vacancies, and Nvidia's share has dropped from 95% four years ago to 50% today. Therefore, in order to avoid continued marginalization, Nvidia on the one hand promotes the lifting of the ban on w88 login, and on the other hand actively launches compliant chips with reduced performance to comply with US regulatory requirements while retaining business channels in China. This strategy reflects its realistic choice to seek "technical compromise" between commercial interests and policy red lines, and is also its passive adjustment to respond to local market pressure and changes in the global competitive landscape. From the perspective of the technology game between China and the United States, by resuming w88 login sales and setting a "ceiling" in performance, Nvidia can not only legally enter the Chinese market to gain profits, but also maintain control of high-end computing technology and avoid core technology spillover. At the same time, with the help of the deep binding of software and hardware ecosystems such as CUDA (Unified Computing Device Architecture), Nvidia is trying to slow down the independence process of China's domestic chip ecosystem.

From a legal perspective, since the export control policy of the U.S. Department of Commerce is centered on the Export Administration Regulations (EAR), relevant companies set "performance thresholds" for specific technology products (such as high-performance computing chips) to restrict their flow to specific countries or regions. This control strategy forms a clear "performance red line" through precise definition of technical parameters, aiming to curb the target country's technological progress in fields such as artificial intelligence and supercomputing. Nvidia’s “compliance chip” strategy is a precise adaptation of this red line.

By reducing chip performance (such as computing power, memory bandwidth, etc.) below the regulatory threshold, NVIDIA ensures that its products technically comply with the requirements of the EAR, thereby avoiding legal risks. The legal logic behind this is that by adjusting technical parameters, companies can maintain the core functions and market competitiveness of their products without violating export controls. Nvidia's w88 login chip is the product of this logic. Its performance design strictly follows the regulatory standards of the U.S. Department of Commerce, which not only avoids hitting legal red lines, but also retains commercial value in specific application scenarios. This kind of "technical downgrading" is not only a technical adjustment, but also a strategic response to legal constraints.

Impact of lifting the ban

Short-term benefits, long-term competition

Reporter:What direct and indirect impacts will the resumption of w88 login chip sales have on China’s artificial intelligence industry as a whole?

Zhang Xin：In the short term, the resumption of sales of w88 login chips has become an "emergency package" for computing power, and the layout of the artificial intelligence industry chain has been accelerated again. The most direct role of the resumption of sales of w88 login is to "replenish power" for Chinese companies. During the three-month lock-up period, some artificial intelligence projects were forced to be postponed. Now that orders have been unfrozen, the pace of research and development, deployment, and launch is expected to rebound across the board.

In the long run, the w88 login chip will not subvert China’s determination and space for domestic substitution. The unit price of w88 login is about US$12,000, but its performance is far inferior to H100. More importantly, policy risks have not been eliminated. Therefore, domestic chips have driven NVIDIA's share in China from 95% to 50% in the past three months with their cost-effectiveness, localized services and continuous iteration, and there is still room for expansion in the future. However, it cannot be ignored that some companies may reduce their procurement and R&D budgets for domestically produced chips due to "ready availability", delaying the process of independent control in the short term.

But many Chinese technology companies are also very aware. If they bet on w88 login for a long time, once the United States tightens exports again or NVIDIA stops supply due to political pressure, the industry will repeat the mistake of "core shortage".

Reporter:There are Chinese companies that are going through the w88 login procurement application process. People familiar with the matter said that only Chinese companies on Nvidia's "white list" are eligible to register potential purchase intentions, and Nvidia then needs to send the order to the U.S. government for approval. From the perspective of market fairness, will the dual process of "enterprise screening + government approval" lead to the phenomenon of "tiered procurement" among domestic AI companies? What barriers to entry may small and medium-sized technology companies face? In the long term, what potential challenges will this bring to the diversified development and healthy competition of the domestic AI industry?

Zhang Xin：The "white list" system logically divides the market into "franchised areas" and "non-franchised areas". As long as the screening standards, updated rules and appeal channels are not transparent, it has the inherent ability to create resource gaps, thus directly challenging the principle of fair competition. Nvidia has not announced the details yet, and any impact assessment can only be regarded as a "draft", and the conclusions may be overturned by new rules at any time. Although the rules are unclear, it can be reasonably inferred that Nvidia’s screening bottom line is the same as the U.S. government’s security review—the core factors are the four elements of transaction items, end users, uses, and destinations. This means that the list is not only a technical compliance form, but also a "political letter of credit."

Historical experience shows that this type of "whitelist" often evolves into a "small circle" tool. The U.S. Department of Commerce has previously set a precedent in the field of OSAT (outsourced semiconductor packaging and testing): the official lists a list of "trusted partners", and the industry chain consciously blocks out non-listed companies.

From the perspective of institutional impact, the squeezing effect of dual approval on small and medium-sized enterprises may be very significant. On the one hand, it is expensive to establish an internal control system that meets the requirements of the United States. On the other hand, the approval cycle may miss the research and development window. Therefore, before China's domestic high-end chips can be replaced on a large scale, small and medium-sized enterprises that are excluded from the list or unable to bear the above costs may be forced into a "computing power window period" and short-term development will be under pressure.

Reporter:During the w88 login ban, the performance of Huawei’s Ascend 910B has surpassed that of w88 login in some areas, and Baidu and Tencent accelerated testing of alternatives. After w88 login resumes sales, will the newly opened market for domestic chips be squeezed again? What opportunities and challenges do Chinese companies face? Will the domestic substitution process be affected? What kind of competitive landscape will the Sino-US chip industry form?

Zhang Xin：The side effects of the U.S. ban on Chinese chips have clearly emerged: instead, it has become a catalyst for the "shuffle" of China's semiconductor ecosystem. Nvidia's market share has dropped from 95% four years ago to 50%, and almost all of the space vacated has been taken by local manufacturers such as Huawei Ascend, Baidu Kunlun, and Cambrian. A JPMorgan Chase report shows that China’s chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 34% in 2024, and this figure may increase significantly to 82% in 2027. Once the ban is loosened and w88 login re-enters the market, the impact on the market will be immediate. Oxford Economics pointed out that many Chinese customers still tend to choose NVIDIA due to existing software stacks and ecological inertia; the capital market also responded quickly - Cambrian fell 2% on the day of the release news.

However, short-term fluctuations have not shaken the long-term trend. After the introduction of relevant national support policies, the capital market responded well and expressed confidence in domestic substitution.

It can be predicted that the Chinese and American chip industries are heading towards "stratified competition": mid- and low-end products are competing head-on in the same market, while high-end products are operating separately, forming two independent sets of standards and ecosystems. The return of w88 login may temporarily slow down domestic substitution tactically, but strategically, the process of China's self-developed chips is irreversible.

How to break the situation

Imported and self-developed, two lines running in parallel

Reporter:In addition to striving to be included in NVIDIA's "white list", how should domestic companies resist procurement uncertainty through supply chain adjustments, technical cooperation, etc.? What implications does this have for the independent and controllable construction of the domestic chip supply chain?

Zhang Xin：Faced with procurement uncertainties caused by “whitelist” screening and government approval, domestic enterprises cannot bet their hopes only on “whether they can buy it”, but should focus on “running if they can’t buy it”, that is, systematically improving the resilience of the supply chain and simultaneously developing an implementable technology alternative route. The core reason is that external risks are still high. Domestic hawks in the United States have publicly opposed the lifting of the ban on w88 login and requested the Department of Commerce to review it again. Once the policy is tightened again, orders already received may be invalidated instantly. Therefore, "cutting supply at any time" is a normal assumption in the next two years, not an extreme scenario.

The short-term strategy of downstream artificial intelligence companies should focus on cooperation with domestic chip manufacturers to reduce reliance on a single source; draw on the experience of DeepSeek at the technology research and development level, and use technologies such as model compression, mixed precision, and dynamic pruning to enable "sub-high-end" chips to achieve performance close to flagships. In addition, we can also explore the establishment of a computing power pool sharing mechanism, where multiple small and medium-sized model companies jointly purchase and reuse in a time-sharing manner to dilute the cost of a single card and improve utilization.

At the same time, the mid- and long-term layout of upstream hardware and ecology should jointly tackle key problems along the entire chain, investing resources in multiple points, rather than making breakthroughs in a single point. Domestic chip manufacturers are making active efforts. For example, Huawei is verifying the feasibility of "CUDA compatibility": mapping existing CUDA code to domestic chip instruction sets through middleware to reduce developers' migration costs. Other manufacturers can learn from this idea and quickly expand the software ecosystem. In addition, from the perspective of government regulation, the government can also establish a "domestic computing power adaptation center" simultaneously with industry associations to provide small and medium-sized AI companies with standardized migration tools, performance tuning services and open source model libraries, shortening the cycle from "available" to "easy to use".

To sum up, under the reality that the "white list" may shrink at any time, the optimal strategy for domestic enterprises is to "dual parallel". On the one hand, they actively apply for and reserve imported high-end chips; on the other hand, they use algorithm innovation and domestic ecology to make up for the computing power gap. Only when domestic hardware + software + algorithms form a closed loop can we truly get rid of dependence on any single external supply.

Reporter:Looking to the future, what are the key factors affecting China’s position in the global artificial intelligence chip market?

Zhang Xin：First of all, independent breakthroughs in core technology are the basis for getting rid of the "stuck neck" dilemma of chips and computing power. Currently, the NVIDIA w88 login chips available in China are unable to meet the training needs of trillion-level large models, highlighting the gap in high-end computing power. There is an urgent need to achieve original breakthroughs in chip architecture, manufacturing processes and AI instruction sets to establish technological sovereignty.

Secondly, the construction of industrial ecology is the key guarantee of competitiveness. NVIDIA has formed customer lock-in through the CUDA ecosystem, and China needs to build its own development tool chain and software ecosystem to enhance market stickiness and technology diffusion.

Once again, the development space is shaped through the policy environment and international games. Under the trend of long-term technological blockade by the United States, the Chinese government has further promoted the application of domestic chips and consolidated the foundation of the domestic market.

Finally, international market expansion determines global influence. Companies such as Huawei are actively expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to enhance overseas competitiveness through international certification, brand building and localized services.

Reporter:In the current technological competition between China and the United States, how should my country strengthen the formulation of artificial intelligence chip technology standards to enhance its global voice?

Zhang Xin：The core of China’s strengthening of the formulation of artificial intelligence chip technology standards lies in the systematic mechanism relying on technological innovation, resource advantages and institutional coordination.

First of all, the substantial improvement of core technology is the cornerstone of mastering the right to speak about standards. Dominance in the formulation of technical standards stems from independent innovation capabilities. China must increase R&D investment in cutting-edge areas such as chip architecture and manufacturing processes, and accumulate technology definition capabilities to take the initiative in international standards negotiations.

Secondly, the coupling of computing power and energy advantages may be transformed into rule advantages. Relying on its huge computing power infrastructure and the advantages of low electricity prices and green energy in the west, China can promote the construction of energy efficiency ratio, computing power dispatching and green artificial intelligence standard systems, and transform resource endowments into global rule influence.

Thirdly, the collaboration of "government, industry, academia and research" is the basis for supporting the construction of the standard system. The state should support standard pre-research, testing and certification, and demonstration applications through special policies, encourage enterprises and scientific research institutes to jointly formulate forward-looking technical specifications, and explore the establishment of a "domestic unified, international docking" standard system.

Finally, actively participate in global artificial intelligence governance and the formulation of international standards. For example, we actively speak out through platforms such as the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) to promote the formulation of relevant international standards for the performance, power consumption, and interface specifications of AI inference chips and computing networks to unify technical specifications, reduce ecological fragmentation, and get rid of passive adaptation.

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