(Source: CCTV-2 "CCTV Financial Review" 2025-10-17)

Editor’s note:The international gold price has gone from US$3,000 per ounce to a range of US$4,000 in about half a year. Why are prices rising so fast? What will be the next trend of international gold prices? CCTV-2 "CCTV Financial Review" Special InvitationProfessor Jiang Ping, w88 casino, explain to us what the market outlook will be like in the context of the surge in gold prices.

The strong nature of the US dollar is a reflection of the weakening credit of the US dollar

Moderator:We just mentioned that today the price of gold futures and spot prices has reached the mark of 4,300 US dollars per ounce. Looking at this year, the cumulative increase in gold prices this year has exceeded 60%. Teacher Jiang will talk about it. In fact, it is also the issue that everyone is most concerned about. Why has the gold price risen so fast this year, especially during this period?

Jiang Ping:Yes, the recent rise in gold can be said to be the fastest in history, and the slope is basically very steep. After breaking through 4,000 U.S. dollars, it broke through 4,100, 4,200, and 4,300 in one fell swoop. We say that this big bull market in the U.S. dollar actually started not only recently. If we look at history, there were three waves of bull markets in the golden period. This bull market probably originated in 2018 and 2019. So behind the entire gold bull market, it is actually a manifestation of the weakening credit of the US dollar.

From a historical perspective, the first wave of the "Three Waves of Bull Markets" can be traced back to 1971 to 1980. At that time, the Bretton Woods system collapsed and the US dollar was decoupled from gold; in addition, two oil crises also triggered high inflation in the United States, with an increase of more than 13%. Therefore, at this time, gold had a very exaggerated increase, almost from US$35 to US$850. Then the second wave of the bull market came from the bursting of the Internet bubble after 2001. By around 2011, in about 10 years, US$250 rose to US$1,920. In this process, the 911 incident was also superimposed, and then the global financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing. Well, this bull market started around 1819 with the "big release" of the new crown epidemic, as well as the geopolitical conflicts in the middle, including some expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which led to this big bull market.

But from our analysis, no matter which wave of bull market it is, behind it is actually a weakening of the credit of the US dollar, including geopolitical conflicts like this. In fact, from the perspective of risk aversion, you can also choose the US dollar at this time, because the credit of the US dollar is too weak now, so at this time, you can only choose gold. Of course, this is compounded by the U.S. debt crisis, including the recent shutdown of the U.S. government, and the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts may become increasingly strong, especially with the recent rapid rise, such as the signal from Powell on August 22 that he is about to cut interest rates, and recently he has once again released the signal that he may cut interest rates.

These actions further catalyzed the rapid rise of gold in the short term. In fact, in the long term, gold depends on the credit of the US dollar. The weaker the credit of the US dollar, it will rise in the long term; in the short term, interest rate cuts are quite a catalyst, accelerating the rise of gold, so we have seen that gold has had a big bull market since 1819, especially recently, there has been an accelerated rise.

Enhancement of gold’s financial and monetary properties

Moderator:I just mentioned the paradigm change. Indeed, we have seen that gold is usually used as a safe-haven asset. It can also be used to hedge against inflation and prevent such a depreciation of the local currency. Looking at it now, does Mr. Jiang think that the properties of gold are quietly changing, or even have a tendency to expand?

Jiang Ping:Yes, the attributes of gold have begun to expand, to include financial and monetary attributes. In fact, we just looked at the data from 1925 to the present, which is almost exactly 100 years. If we calculate its annualized return, the annualized return of gold denominated in US dollars is actually about 5%. In fact, it has played more of a hedging role in the past. Especially if you look at the tense situation of geopolitics, economic uncertainty, or economic crisis and financial crisis, it will perform particularly well.

Its annualized rate is actually 5%, so in fact we understand it more as a safe-haven asset and its essential role in hedging inflation. But what do we see? In recent years, for example, there is data. From 2000 to 2025, in the past 25 years, its annualized return has basically reached about 11%. This is actually almost the same as the annualized return of the S&P 500. This is because in recent years, we have had multiple crises superimposed, such as the Internet bubble, then the COVID-19 epidemic, and the financial crisis. These reasons have been superimposed on each other now, so we see that for gold, its high volatility has become the norm in these years. , so in fact, gold is not as safe as everyone thinks. It had a bear market, that is, from 1980 to 2000. Its gold price should have dropped by nearly 70%, from more than 800 US dollars to more than 200 US dollars, which is a 70% drop. So it has been falling over a period of 20 years, so its fluctuations are actually very large. So now, what are its more attributes? It is from a traditional safe-haven asset to a strategic asset. We have data here. We can see that in the past, the central bank began to do two things after about 2012 and 2013. One was to significantly reduce the US dollar assets in its hands, and the other was to significantly increase gold. Holding gold has increasingly become a strategic asset for various central banks. This is because the credit of U.S. dollar debt assets has collapsed. So what should those people around the world who have no safe assets but hold U.S. debt hold? So gold has become the best choice, so the financial and monetary attributes of gold are rising. Of course, other market investors and individual investors around the world, in the context of deep de-dollarization, have also chosen to use gold as an important asset diversification reserve, not just a traditional inflation or safe-haven asset.

Investing in gold is risky, consuming gold must be rational

Moderator:Looking at the rise in gold prices, I think many investors also want a share of the pie. However, as mentioned in the short video just now, many banks such as the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are issuing risk warnings one after another. Teacher Jiang is here to tell us what kind of risks are everyone warning about? For example, when conducting gold transactions such as paper gold, gold ETFs, gold futures, etc., what do ordinary investors need to pay attention to?

Jiang Ping:For ordinary investors, many people actually think that when investing in gold, what is the most effective or appropriate channel for them? But many investors don't know this, so they may buy gold futures directly, or they may invest in such highly leveraged investments under the bad inducement of certain financial institutions. Well, we have actually seen that recent futures exchanges have also significantly increased the margin ratio, which is actually to curb this kind of speculation, because for futures, its leverage is very high, and you can liquidate your position very quickly. Therefore, this is risky for many investors, especially now that the price of gold is relatively high, especially combined with the rapid rise in the past, there is also a technical possibility of a correction. If you want to use a high leverage to buy gold futures, it may cause relatively large losses to investors, and it may also bring greater other risks. Therefore, ordinary investors must pay special attention when investing in gold futures. Gold ETFs and paper gold, including physical gold, can be used as a more effective way to invest in gold. However, under the premise of the current relatively high level, we should still control our positions and avoid chasing high prices, which may lead to a short-term hold-up. After all, we have just reminded that in this 20-year bear market, the stock price fell by 70%, and 70% of the losses in the past 20 years are a long-term hold-up.

The "triple" gold price resonates, where will it go in the future

Moderator:After talking about the suggestions for gold investment and financial management, in fact, when we look back, we still have to refer to what kind of trend gold will probably be in the future, so this is also an issue that everyone is very concerned about. Teacher Jiang, from your research perspective, what do you think the mid- to long-term trend of international gold prices will be? What factors does it depend on?

Jiang Ping:In fact, no matter how you answer this question, it is easy to be slapped in the face, because the price is already very high, and then you say that the current price of gold is too high, and it is difficult to chase the increase. In the end, when it rises, everyone scolds me, saying, you see, I have not made any money; then I said that the current price is only halfway up the mountain, and will continue to rise in the future, so this is also easy to be slapped in the face. So let’s not talk about the short term, let’s look at the medium and long term. In the medium to long term, in fact, you have to go back to history. From a 100-year history, the real movement of gold began in 1971, after it was decoupled from the US dollar, and it began to reach a market-oriented price.

Before 1971, between 1925 and 1971, it was mainly bound to the US dollar. So you can actually see that the trend of gold basically depends on several big factors. One is global instability, that is, risk aversion. There is a saying called "buying gold in troubled times", right? That is to say, if there is a war, 9/11, or a financial crisis, or when everyone loses confidence, everyone will buy gold. At this time, the price of gold will be very high. The other is to look at the U.S. dollar. If the U.S. dollar is issued indiscriminately and then quantified in various ways, and a lot of U.S. dollars are issued continuously, and there are a lot of U.S. dollars, then the U.S. dollar will not be valuable, because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so if the U.S. dollar is cheaper, then gold itself will become more expensive. This is also a core factor to consider.

Then, the future trend of gold also depends on these factors. First, can the United States solve its high debt and its debt crisis? Can it resolve such a big problem of fiscal deficit? Is there any way to solve it? Is it possible that in the context of the collapse of global confidence in its dollar credit, can it still rebuild everyone's confidence in it? Whether the U.S. economy can truly recover and strengthen, so that the U.S. dollar that supports it can regain better credibility, is actually a core factor. In the medium to long term, if the U.S. dollar can strengthen again and become the world's most trustworthy currency, and the United States becomes the dominant country, then gold may relatively weaken. Second, it also depends on whether the current wars and geopolitical conflicts, such as these, can be alleviated. From a medium-term perspective, from a cyclical perspective, it also depends on the entire industry's demand for gold, including other metals. In fact, we have seen that not only gold, gold and silver have risen even more, but other copper has also risen by 20%. Therefore, in the medium term, these metals are actually related to the gap between supply and demand in this industry. In the long term, it still depends on the credit of the US dollar. In the short term, we look at the current short-term indicators such as the Federal Reserve raising and lowering interest rates. Therefore, just as the Federal Reserve is superimposing this general background, the dollar is weakening, and at the same time, it has to open a window to cut interest rates.

So, you may predict that we have already cut interest rates by 25 BP in September, and then in October we predict that there is a 100% probability that interest rates may be cut again. Once this interest rate cutting cycle starts, it will be a greater catalyst in the short term. So when these short-term, mid-term, and long-term factors overlap and resonate, then I believe that everyone will have a clearer analysis framework for the trend of gold. Therefore, future trends also depend on how these factors change and interact.

Attachment: original video linkhttps://tv.cctv.com/2025/10/17/VIDEuYceAwkyiZAvdn9F2REE251017.shtml