(Source: 21st Century Economic Report 2026-03-31)
The Strait of Hormuz is still "breathing hard".
According to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media reports, on March 27, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an announcement stating that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed, prohibiting any ships “coming from or going to” ports of the United States and Israeli allies from passing through, and any attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz without authorization will face “severe measures.”
Afterwards, according to CCTV News, Aladdin Brujedi, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran’s Islamic Parliament, said on March 30, local time, that in view of the current international security situation and external threats, Iran is seriously considering withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and plans to implement a stricter access and fee system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
This allows LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply to ease the frayed nerves a bit. You know, when the world's largest LNG production base, Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, was attacked on March 18, 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed, these two factors caused about 20% of the world's LNG production capacity to be damaged.
To make matters worse, on March 27, Australia’s three major LNG facilities, which account for approximately 8.4% of global LNG w88 volume, were hit hard by tropical cyclones. Previously, under the background that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was almost interrupted and Qatar's export capacity was damaged, Australia became the world's second largest LNG exporter.
In 2026, the global LNG market is destined to be turbulent.
On March 18, 2026, Iranian missiles flew towards the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar. Subsequently, more details of the damage emerged - Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's Minister of State for Energy Affairs and President and CEO of Qatar Energy Company, said that Iran's attack paralyzed 17% of Qatar's LNG export production capacity, and related maintenance will lead to the shutdown of 12.8 million tons of LNG production capacity per year, lasting for 3 to 5 years.
If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 caused "external damage" to the global LNG supply, then the attack on the Qatar LNG production base caused serious "internal damage" and lengthened the market's "recovery" years.
Futures prices gave a more pronounced response. After the Iranian army began to block the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026, the price of Dutch TTF (Dutch Transfer Facility) natural gas futures immediately jumped 39.26% on the next trading day (March 2), reaching a maximum of 49.14 euros/MWh. Another high point for the futures price occurred on March 19, reaching 74 euros/MWh, an increase of 35.38%. According to data from Asia's LNG benchmark price JKM, since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East in late February, the price has increased by more than 80%.
Late March is the time when Asian and European LNG importing countries receive the last batch of cargo ships from the Persian Gulf. Among them, Asia, as the largest LNG consumption area in the world, directly undertakes more than 80% of LNG exports from the Middle East. However, the damage to Qatar's LNG base has worried some Asian countries, and Japan is one of them.
China Economic and Social News quoted foreign media reports that on March 27, the Japanese government will lift operating restrictions on coal-fired power generation as an emergency measure to deal with the turmoil in the Middle East. The purpose of this move is to deal with the rising uncertainty in LNG imports caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Public information shows that thermal power generation accounts for nearly 70% of Japan's power structure, of which more than 30% use LNG and nearly 30% use coal.
Pakistan has become another Asian country facing the danger of LNG supply cuts. In 2025, about 99% of the country's LNG imports will come from Qatar. Iqbal Ahmed, chairman and CEO of Pakistan Gas Ports Company, admitted in an interview with the media in late March that one of the two terminals owned by the company will run out of inventory in the next few days. "After that, we will completely cut off supply, and we don't know when the next batch of goods will arrive at the port."
The "Asia Supply Chain Disruption Risk Tracking" report released by Morgan Stanley in March this year pointed out: When the market is watching the rise and fall of oil prices, the real "grey rhinoceros" is the physical supply gap of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a series of neglected industrial raw material supply chains in the Middle East. The report believes that the global LNG market is already in a state of tight balance. Once the core export hub is blocked, there will be no resources that can quickly fill the gap.
It is worth mentioning that when the industry analyzes the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global LNG market, it is also comparing it with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the impact of the two wars is similar in that the amount of supply contraction is similar. But the difference is the pace of supply contraction. "After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Russia's pipelines to Europe did not immediately stop supply, but gradually reduced the supply. In this conflict between the United States and Iran, since Qatar's LNG exports basically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz will restrict about 20% of the global LNG w88 volume in a very short period of time."
In mid-March, when an LNG ship from the Middle East docked in Guangdong, the LNG price in the South China market increased rapidly, and some port traders even suspended quotations.
This is a microcosm of China’s LNG market being impacted by the war in the Middle East. But fortunately, gas sources from other LNG exporting countries soon broke this situation.
The real-time LNG import and ship data released by the China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-Gas System) shows that in the two weeks from March 16 to March 22 and March 23 to March 29, LNG ships from Malaysia and Australia quickly filled the gap in China's LNG imports. However, the LNG import volume in the latter week did drop significantly month-on-month - China's LNG import volume in the week from March 23 to March 29 was approximately 620,000 tons, a decrease of 38%.
In addition, according to the system’s forecast, China’s LNG imports are expected to recover to 820,000 tons in the week from March 30 to April 5, and there will be 5 import source countries.
It is undeniable that China’s LNG market has indeed suffered a certain impact due to the war in the Middle East.
The most direct reflection is still the price. The CIF price of China's imported spot LNG (hereinafter referred to as CLD, which is the price of LNG cargo imported into mainland China in a spot manner and delivered to LNG receiving terminals in mainland China within the next three calendar months) released by the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center shows that as of March 30 , the CLD (recent month) price was US$18.697/million Btu (122.354 yuan/GJ), an increase of 83.00% from the CLD (recent month) price of US$10.217/million Btu (66.525 yuan/GJ) on February 27, before the conflict broke out.
The relevant person in charge of the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald: "After the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, the market was worried about blocked shipping and supply interruptions across the Strait, coupled with expectations of an impact on LNG facilities in the Middle East, triggering panic purchases in the market. At the same time, the conflict pushed up ship insurance premiums and transportation costs. Asian buyers rushed to secure supplies, and market speculation intensified."
The agency further analyzed that on the domestic front, the LNG market has shown an intensified supply and demand game and high and volatile prices. At the same time, driven by market linkage, the spot price in Asia has strengthened, and the LNG out-of-gate price in coastal areas has rebounded slightly.
However, according to industry analysts, although the war in the Middle East has had a short-term impact on China's LNG market, in the medium and long term, it is a window period for once again building energy security.
Dong Xiucheng, Professor of w88 casino of International Business and Economics, w88 casinoTold a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald: "The situation in the Middle East has triggered the restructuring and revaluation of the global LNG supply chain, which has put short-term pressure on the Chinese market and has a dual impact on the upgrading of energy security in the medium and long term."
He analyzed that in the short term, Qatar's production capacity has been damaged and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked. About 20% of the global LNG w88 has been disrupted. Spot prices in Asia have risen sharply, pushing up my country's coastal LNG procurement and shipping costs. Cost pressure has increased in gas, chemical and other industries, and the rhythm of spot replenishment and long-term contract fulfillment has been disrupted. At the mid- to long-term level, value revaluation forces my country to accelerate the diversification of gas sources, increase efforts to explore gas sources such as Russia, Central Asia pipeline gas, and the United States and Africa, increase gas storage peaking and increase domestic storage and production, and strengthen the resilience of the supply chain.
“In general, my country’s domestically produced gas and pipeline gas account for a high proportion, and the overall supply risk is controllable. However, it is necessary to continue to optimize the procurement structure and stabilize the input cost pressure caused by price fluctuations.”Dong XiuchengTalked to reporters.
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