(Source: Xinhua News Agency 2026-04-01)
On April 1, "Economic Information Daily" published an article written by a reporter, "Re-pricing of global assets under geopolitical conflicts and the resilience of China's assets appears." The article stated that from the violent fluctuations in energy prices to the chain reactions in the stock and bond markets, from the emergence of liquidity shocks to the pressure on sectors such as technology, the shock from the Strait of Hormuz is causing turmoil in the global capital market.
In the view of industry insiders, the prolongation of the conflict and the resulting inflation expectations and monetary policy tightening expectations from global central banks have put global assets at risk of systemic revaluation. However, amid the violent fluctuations in global financial markets, Chinese assets have shown remarkable resilience by virtue of their unique advantages.
“Energy” becomes the most critical variable
On March 30, local time, the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to impose charges on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
“It remains to be seen whether the bill will be implemented. However, if the bill is finally implemented, it will significantly increase geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and the global energy and shipping pattern will be changed, with far-reaching consequences.”Professor Dong Xiucheng of the w88 casinorepresents.
The Strait of Hormuz, the "artery" that carries one-fifth of the world's oil transportation, has a direct impact on global energy supply and price stability since the war between the United States and Israel broke out about a month ago. Since the conflict, international oil prices have risen sharply. New York crude oil futures closed at US$102.88 per barrel on March 30, reaching the US$100 mark for the first time since July 2022. The cumulative increase so far in March is as high as 53%. The price of Brent crude oil futures in London once exceeded US$118 per barrel during intraday trading on March 31.
This trend may continue. Recently, international investment banks including Goldman Sachs and UBS have all raised their forecasts for future oil prices. Industry insiders also generally believe that high oil prices may last longer than expected.
“The duration of high oil prices is expected to depend on the progress of navigation restoration in the Strait of Hormuz and the ‘OPEC+’ production increase strategy.”Dong Xiuchengsaid that unlike previous oil crises in history, this conflict is not a simple supply embargo or production cut that is “unavailable” or “unaffordable”, but a comprehensive impact caused by the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with wider impact and slower recovery.
Miao Yanliang, chief strategist of CICC Research Department, believes that since the actual production cuts of oil-producing countries in the Middle East have taken shape, changing the previous surplus situation, there is a high probability that the oil price center will be significantly higher than before the conflict.
In fact, the impact of this energy supply shock caused by geopolitics has far exceeded the energy field itself.
Shi Lei, allocation director of Hangzhou Suijiu Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd., said that changes in energy prices will affect all aspects such as chemical products, agricultural products, and electricity supply. The impact on energy supply is gradually evolving into a systemic supply impact covering the entire chain of production, circulation, and consumption.
"The first is cost impact and profit differentiation. Rising energy prices have brought direct or indirect rising cost pressures to most energy importing countries, especially aviation, petrochemical and chemical industries, which have a more direct impact and may damage physical demand; second, the linkage effect between macro-inflation and interest rates. A sharp rise in oil prices may exacerbate the risk of stagflation in the United States, change the Federal Reserve's original pace of interest rate cuts, and the environment of loose U.S. dollar liquidity will directly change." Miao Yanliang said.
Global assets are experiencing a significant liquidity shock. "One of the themes of the global financial market this year is the decline in liquidity, which has already begun to take shape from January to February this year, and this geopolitical event has further accelerated this tightening trend." Shi Lei said.
Wind statistics show that as of March 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index and S&P 500 Index have fallen by 7.68%, 8.27% and 7.78% respectively since March. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index and the Korea Composite Index have fallen by 11.83% and 15.48% respectively. COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) gold fell from a high of $5,472.3 per ounce to a low of $4,128.9 per ounce. Driven by rising inflation expectations and risk aversion, the U.S. dollar index remained strong and rose to its highest level since May last year.
"Risk aversion is being transmitted in the financial market. Shrinking trading volume and no one to take the selling pressure show that the tendency of 'cash is king' is simultaneously strengthening among institutions and retail investors." DBS Bank (China) senior investment strategist Deng Zhijian said that on the one hand, currency holders are waiting and not entering the market, on the other hand, position holders are reluctant to sell and find it difficult to realize, thus forming an anxious state of "high cash holding rate + low willingness to w88".
Yao Yuan, Asia senior investment strategist at Orient Asset Management Investment Research Institute, said that the market's logic is to sell all risky assets except energy, and cash is king. "Although gold can theoretically resist stagflation, due to its rapid rise in the early stage, trading has become crowded. With a sudden rise in risk aversion, gold has become a 'cash machine', so prices have also fluctuated." Yao Yuan said.
The market changes, but the anchor remains unchanged. As Thomas Mucha, geopolitical strategist at Wellington Investment Management, pointed out in a report released recently - "In this conflict, energy has been, and will continue to be, the most critical variable at the global macro level."
Global assets face systemic revaluation
In the view of industry insiders, the prolongation of the conflict and the resulting rise in inflation expectations and expectations of monetary policy tightening by global central banks have put global assets at risk of systemic revaluation.
“The prolongation of the conflict will export ‘stagflation’ institutional costs to the world. For asset pricing, this means that the valuation model based on low interest rates, globalization and efficiency over the past two decades is being systematically revalued.” said Tian Lihui, Dean of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University.
In last week, known as "Super Central Bank Week", major central banks around the world such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan held intensive monetary policy meetings. Judging from the signals released by the meeting, major central banks around the world have suspended the easing process previously expected by the market to deal with potential stagflation risks.
In the view of Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, global central banks are caught in the dilemma of "stabilizing growth" and "controlling inflation." "From the perspective of financial asset pricing, at this stage, global asset prices mainly price the impact of inflation, but ignore the impact of high energy costs on economic growth. If the market turns to recession trading in the later period, the value of the hedging allocation of bonds will be highlighted, equity assets will face downward pressure on earnings revisions, and commodity prices will be under pressure due to shrinking demand." Guan Tao said.
It is worth noting that among multiple asset classes, this energy supply shock has had a greater impact on technology stocks with high capital expenditures. "If the central bank raises interest rates and causes liquidity to tighten and market risk appetite to drop significantly, technology companies will face challenges at the financing level, resulting in less than expected capital expenditures and affecting technology iterations," Yao Yuan said.
In Miao Yanliang’s view, the impact of energy supply shocks on technology stocks with high capital expenditures mainly includes risk premium impacts, and it also has a certain impact on financing costs and supply chains at the physical level. However, he said that for the AI industry chain with good mid- to long-term demand prospects, the current disturbance may be more short-term. Although there is a certain bubble in AI, the overall situation is still relatively healthy and has good investment value in the mid- to long-term.
Cao Liulong, chief analyst of Western Securities Strategy, told reporters that investment in the technology sector is a general trend, but after the technology sector has experienced a sustained surge, only "conceptual narrative" may not be enough to impress investors. Investors' requirements for technology companies' fundamental improvement and the ability to record "real money" will increase.
The resilience of China’s assets is gradually emerging
It is worth noting that amid the turmoil in global financial markets since March, Chinese assets have performed significantly more resiliently.
Wind statistics show that as of March 30, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Component Index had fallen by 5.76% and 5.30% respectively in March, which was significantly lower than the US stock market and the Japanese and Korean markets during the same period. In the exchange rate market, the RMB has appreciated by more than 1% against the U.S. dollar this year, which is also significantly stronger than other non-U.S. currencies.
Industry insiders generally believe that in the context of increased uncertainty caused by geopolitical conflicts, the certainty of the Chinese economy and Chinese assets will show obvious advantages.
Meng Lei, China stock strategy analyst at UBS Securities, believes that from a macro perspective, China's dependence on oil and natural gas is lower among the world's major economies. Taking into account the incremental macro policies, the explosion of technological innovation, and the continuous reform of capital markets and market value management, the A-share market valuation is expected to be repaired in the medium term.
Tian Xuan, Distinguished Professor of Boya at Peking University, said that Chinese assets, including A-shares, will show unique advantages with their relatively independent supply chain resilience, continuously expanding domestic demand market, and policy-led technological innovation advancement. "In particular, my country has sufficient macro policy space, its monetary policy is more flexible than other major economies in the world, and its fiscal policy continues to support technological innovation and industrial upgrading, providing more certain valuation support and long-term growth space for the A-share technology sector," he said.
Miao Yanliang believes that in the long term, we need to pay attention to the impact of this geopolitical conflict on the international order and pattern. The prolongation of the conflict means that the credibility of the United States has declined and its national strength has been weakened. The status of U.S. debt as a core safe asset has been shaken, and the logic of the decline in the safety of U.S. dollar assets may be further strengthened. Global capital flows will show an obvious trend of "fragmentation" and "diversification". "Fragmentation" causes funds to flow back to the homeland, showing a strong preference for home countries; "diversification" prompts funds that were originally highly concentrated in U.S. dollar assets to find new allocation directions. Non-U.S. assets such as Chinese assets and gold may benefit relatively.
The latest research from Huatai Securities shows that from March 18 to March 25, the net inflow of allocative foreign capital exceeded 5 billion yuan among allocative foreign capital measured by EPFR. Among them, the net outflow of actively allocated foreign capital was 630 million yuan, and the net inflow of passively allocated foreign capital was 5.66 billion yuan.
“The core advantage of China’s assets in the current global chaos is that it provides a ‘dislocation space’ at the macro cycle and a ‘certainty anchor’ at the institutional level.” Tian Lihui told reporters that when major Western economies are trapped in the dilemma of fighting inflation and recession, China has an independent monetary policy cycle and a more leisurely fiscal space, which prevents Chinese assets from being severely suppressed by the global high interest rate environment.
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