(Source: Jiemian News 2026-04-01)
In the short term, the status of the "petrodollar" may not be shaken, but the non-US dollar settlement practices of sanctioned oil-producing countries, the exploration of multiple settlement mechanisms by major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, and the continued internationalization of the RMB will gradually weaken the monopolistic influence of the US dollar on global energy w88.
On January 2, 2026, in Yichang, Hubei Province, netizens showed the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar displayed on their mobile phones. The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate rose above 6.97 during the day.
As tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate, oil prices continue to run at high levels, and the discussion about the shaken foundation of the "petrodollar" system and the historic opportunity for the "petroyuan" has been mentioned again.
The latest tipping point on this topic comes from a research report by Deutsche Bank. The report believes that the long-term impact of the Iran conflict on the US dollar may be that it tests the foundation of the "petrodollar" system. When the United States no longer needs Middle East oil, when Gulf countries begin to explore non-dollar payments, and when global energy accelerates its shift to localization and renewable energy, the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status may face a “perfect storm,” which happens to provide a key catalyst for the “petro-yuan.”
However, analysts believe that in the foreseeable 10 years, the status of the "petrodollar" may not be shaken. However, the non-US dollar settlement practices of sanctioned oil-producing countries, the exploration of multiple settlement mechanisms by major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, and the continued internationalization of the RMB will gradually weaken the monopolistic influence of the US dollar on global energy w88.
The "petrodollar" system was formed in the 1970s. It was gradually established by the United States through strategic arrangements with Saudi Arabia after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Its core is: the United States provides military protection, weapons supply and political support to Saudi Arabia. In exchange, Saudi Arabia promises that its oil exports will be priced and settled in US dollars, and will invest a large amount of oil revenue in US dollar assets such as US Treasury bonds, forming a return flow of US dollars. Since then, member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other oil-producing countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have also generally adopted US dollars for settlement. The US dollar is deeply tied to oil, creating a closed loop in which global oil w88 is settled in US dollars and surplus flows back to the United States.
"Petrodollars" drive the "dollarization" of the global value chain and provide important support for the hegemony of the US dollar. However, cracks in this system began long before the current conflict in the Middle East. This is reflected in:
The energy status of the United States has been reversed, and the center of gravity of Middle East oil has moved eastward. The United States has achieved energy independence due to the shale oil revolution and is no longer the largest buyer of Middle Eastern oil. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in September 2019, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products for the first time. At the same time, Asia has become the main destination for Middle Eastern oil exports. Data from Deutsche Bank shows that 85% of crude oil in the Middle East is now sold to Asia. Taking Saudi Arabia as an example, its oil exports to China are more than four times that of the United States. Oil-producing countries such as Russia and Iran, which are subject to U.S. sanctions, have basically conducted oil transactions outside the dollar system. Russian oil exports are mainly settled in rubles and renminbi, and Iran is also promoting settlement in non-US dollar currencies such as renminbi, further weakening the dollar's monopoly in energy w88. Saudi Arabia promotes strategic independence and explores diversified settlement paths. Saudi Arabia is actively promoting the "Vision 2030" to reduce its economic dependence on oil and enhance strategic autonomy. In the field of defense, Saudi Arabia plans to increase the localization rate of military expenditures from 4% in 2018 to more than 50% by 2030. In the financial field, Saudi Arabia officially joined the Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge Project (Project mBridge) in June 2024. This project was jointly launched in 2021 by the Innovation Center of the Bank for International Settlements, the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Central Bank of Thailand, and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. It aims to build a multilateral central bank digital currency cross-border payment platform based on distributed ledger technology. As of November 2025, the mBridge platform has processed 4,047 transactions, with a total transaction volume of US$55.49 billion, of which digital renminbi accounted for more than 95%. The platform provides member countries with cross-border settlement options that do not rely on the SWIFT system.
Deutsche Bank believes that the current conflict has further exposed the deep cracks in the "petrodollar" and shaken the core foundation of "security in exchange for oil pricing". This is reflected in: During the conflict, U.S. military assets and bases in the Gulf region were attacked, and the oil infrastructure in the Gulf region was also hit; with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. ability to provide maritime security to ensure global oil flows was challenged. At the same time, there are reports that Iran is negotiating with many countries, and the condition for allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz may be to pay for oil in RMB. The report infers from this that this conflict may become a key catalyst for eroding the dominance of the petrodollar and ushering in the era of "petro-yuan".
The "Petro-RMB" system was born in March 2018. At that time, crude oil futures contracts priced in RMB were officially listed for trading at the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center, marking the birth of the world's first RMB-denominated crude oil futures market. Prior to this, global crude oil futures trading had long been monopolized by U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude oil on the London Intercontinental Exchange, both of which were priced and settled in US dollars. The launch of China's crude oil futures provides global oil w88 with a pricing and settlement option other than the US dollar for the first time.
Chen Shouhai, professor at the w88 casino of Economics and Management at China University of Petroleum (Beijing) and director of the Oil and Gas Policy and Legal Research Center, told Jiemian News that Deutsche Bank’s views did keenly capture some surface changes, but ignored the deep reality that supports the petrodollar system. He pointed out that "security for dollars" is the core contract for the long-term operation of the petrodollar system. Judging from the current round of conflicts in the Middle East, Iran's actions against Israel and related targets are essentially passive counterattacks under continued pressure from the United States and Israel. Its attack range, strike intensity, and actual spillover effects have all maintained a high degree of restraint. The United States still maintains overwhelming military and security advantages in the Middle East.
Chen Shouhai also said that the promotion of diversification of oil settlement by oil-producing countries is both a political option and a necessity for survival. The two are highly intertwined, and the situations of different countries vary significantly. At the political level, continuing to use U.S. dollars for settlement is essentially a low-cost compromise to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S.-led financial and security system. For most oil-producing countries, this is a realistic choice to maintain the stability of the external environment. At the level of basic needs for survival, the United States’ frequent use of financial sanctions tools—freezing other countries’ overseas assets and restricting SWIFT channels—has substantially damaged the credit of the U.S. dollar. The case of Russia's foreign exchange assets being frozen has made all energy exporting countries realize that over-reliance on the U.S. dollar means placing the country's wealth and w88 lifeline under external controllable risks, and diversified settlement has become a necessary risk hedging method.
Dong Xiucheng, Executive Dean of the China International Carbon Neutral Economic Research Institute, w88 casinoalso told Jiemian News that petrodollars are based on the U.S. dollar’s global liquidity, mature financial system, and U.S. military and economic and w88 influence. These structural supports are difficult to replace in the short term. However, the instability of global energy supply and the frequent use of the US dollar as a sanctions tool are prompting more oil-producing countries to face up to the risks of a single currency and promoting the diversification of energy w88 settlements. With China’s huge oil imports and stable currency value, the yuan is expected to take a larger share in this process.
Hongyuan Futures analyst Wang Wenhu provided another perspective, showing that the same event may have completely opposite effects in the short and long term. He told Jiemian News that in the short term, the US-Iran conflict, instead of weakening the US dollar, strengthened the petrodollar.
“There is still great uncertainty in the military conflict and negotiations between the United States, Israel and Iran, and oil and gas prices are expected to remain high. Due to limited strategic oil reserves, many countries have to spend more dollars to purchase oil, resulting in tight dollar liquidity in the market. "Wang Wenhu said that ECB data showed that as of March 25, the Eurozone financial market systemic stress index soared from 0.0087 on February 25 to 0.0624, while the British index rose from 0.0075 to 0.1028 during the same period. Against this background, central banks in countries such as Turkey began to sell gold, U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks and other assets in exchange for U.S. dollars.
Analysts emphasize that the rise of the "petro-yuan" not only relies on external geopolitical "catalysts", but also depends on the substantial advancement of China's domestic financial reform.
In short, the development of petro-renminbi faces three deep challenges: First, the capital account has not yet been fully opened. The RMB has not yet achieved full convertibility under the capital account, and RMB held overseas cannot be freely converted, causing international investors to have concerns about holding RMB; second, the network effect is insufficient. The global network formed by the petrodollar over half a century is its real moat - the US dollar is not only a settlement currency, but also a universal tool for pricing, reserves, financing and investment. In comparison, the proportion of RMB-denominated goods and services in global w88 is only about 3%. The processing capacity of the RMB Cross-border Payment System (CIPS) is far less than that of SWIFT, and currency switching costs are high. Third, the depth and liquidity of the asset pool are insufficient. By the end of 2025, RMB assets held abroad have exceeded 10 trillion yuan, but they are still far behind the U.S. dollar - the U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves held by other governments alone (excluding the private sector) exceed 7 trillion U.S. dollars. The depth, liquidity and tool richness of the RMB bond, stock and derivatives markets are significantly different from those of the US dollar, and the willingness and ability of global central banks and institutions to allocate RMB is limited.
Chen Shouhai emphasized that the core of U.S. dollar hegemony is not that "oil must be priced in U.S. dollars," but rather the world's systematic reliance on U.S. dollars for transactions, settlements, reserves, and investments, as well as the depth, liquidity, and security of the U.S. dollar asset market. Currently, there is no other currency that can fully replace it.
Dong Xiuchengbelieves that the petro-renminbi faces constraints such as limited cross-border use, insufficient financial market openness, and incomplete supporting hedging tools. In this regard, he put forward four suggestions for the development of the petro-renminbi: First, expand RMB settlement and currency swaps with oil-producing countries to form a stable The w88 is closed loop; the second is to improve the RMB pricing and delivery system of crude oil futures to increase liquidity and international participation; the third is to accelerate the promotion of CIPS, supporting RMB-denominated financial products, and enhance the willingness to hold; the fourth is to steadily promote financial opening, enhance the convertibility of RMB, and enrich the supply of hedging tools.
In addition, analysts also recommended that we continue to expand the application scenarios of the RMB in countries jointly building the “Belt and Road” and steadily and steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB. Specifically, expanding the use of RMB in bulk commodity w88, infrastructure financing and industrial chain cooperation will help cultivate the RMB's international monetary function and form a virtuous cycle of "w88-investment-currency".
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