(Source: "First Financial Daily" 2024-07-08)
The "encirclement technique" of France's center parties and left-wing forces worked: in the French parliamentary election, the far-right forces were defeated. The far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen's support rate in the second round of voting was far lower than expected.
However, despite the success of the anti-"National Alliance" strategy, no party group has a support rate close to an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.
On July 8, local time, the final data released by the French Ministry of the Interior showed that the left-wing alliance "New Popular Front" won 182 seats in the National Assembly, becoming the largest party group. The current President Macron's ruling party Ennahda Party and its centrist alliance occupied a total of 163 seats, the far-right National Alliance won 143 seats, the right-wing Republican Party accounted for 68 seats, and the other parties occupied 21 seats.
On the one hand, Macron successfully inspired French voters and prevented the far-right forces from coming to power. On the other hand, the seats of Macron’s centrist ruling coalition dropped from 234 seats to the current 163 seats, losing a relative majority position. The future formation of the government faces uncertainty. In this situation where the three parties appear to be "tripods" on the surface, has Macron won this early election bet? What the market wants to know most is "Who will be the Prime Minister of France?" How to answer it?
Zhao Yongsheng, director of the French Economic Research Center at the w88 casino in France and a doctoral supervisor at the Sorbonne University in Paris, who is observing the election, said that there are currently two completely opposite views on whether Macron has "won the bet." He tends to believe that Macron is not a big win, but a small victory or no loss. The change in seats has not affected Macron's main goal and plan this time, which is to "prevent far-right forces from disrupting the French political arena."
w88 casino games login Yongsheng explained to the China Business News reporter that currently, judging from the surface seats, the distribution of support between the centrists and the left is distorted, because the mutual support strategies adopted by the two camps in the second round of elections caused voters to vote for "anti-extreme right" instead of clearly voting for the centrist or the left.
He also predicts that in terms of the choice of prime minister, the best result is to have a relatively moderate candidate from the left recognized by all parties, such as former French President Hollande, who currently claims that he will not be prime minister.
Question 1: Did Macron win his bet?
The election results on the 7th were surprising. The far-right National Alliance, which was originally expected to have around 200 seats, only got 143 seats. This shows that French voters overwhelmingly want to prevent the far-right forces from coming to power, even at the expense of forming a hung parliament.
This alone is enough to say that Macron’s electoral gamble paid off. w88 casino games login Yongsheng told China Business News that Macron has prevented the rise of the far right in France, and the centrist ruling coalition "Together" led by him, led by the "Ennahda Party", has also performed much better than expected, ranking second with a strong momentum, which allows the centrists to retain an advantage in the political game.
In France, Macron’s allies praised Macron’s move as a “Cartesian rational strategy.” However, has the three-week lightning election launched by Macron really become a “clarification moment” for French politics?
French voters have made it clear what they are against, but not clearly what they are for.
w88 casino games login Yongsheng said that when he launched the early election, Macron did not place any hope on expanding the seats from the previous 234 seats to 289 seats. He knew that this was impossible. He launched the election to take the initiative to defeat the far right. As for whether the left or the center currently gets the votes, the meaning does not need to be over-interpreted.
The reason is that in the second round of elections, "in a constituency, the first-placed candidate in the first round is a far-right candidate, the second-placed candidate is a left-wing candidate, and the third-placed candidate is a centrist candidate. Then the third-placed candidate will drop out in the second round, and vice versa." He explained that this strategy is designed to reduce vote splitting. When a voter who likes the candidate of the presidential front withdraws, he will either vote for the left or abstain from voting. Anyway, he will not vote for the far right. The results of the votes cast under this strategy are quite different from the true wishes of the voters, and there is a certain deviation between the wishes of the voters and the results of the votes.
To use a common saying, "the votes of the left wing and the presidential front have long been mixed together." w88 casino games login Yongsheng said that this is a kind of "you have me in you, and I have you in you" flavor, which is purely to defeat the far-right political parties tactically.
In other words, Macron’s victory or defeat does not lie in competing with the left. w88 casino games login Yongsheng concluded.
Question 2: Who can be the Prime Minister of France without scaring the market?
After the election results were released, on the evening of the 7th local time, French Prime Minister Attal stated that he would submit his resignation to Macron on the morning of the 8th local time.
At the same time, Macron’s speech was more cautious. He told the media through the French Presidential Palace that Macron was paying close attention to the final results of each constituency before making necessary decisions.
It is currently speculated in France that it is likely to wait until the National Assembly meets on July 18 to start selecting the prime minister. Before that, Macron has nearly 10 days to conduct negotiations.
The key question the market is asking is who will be prime minister: how capable he is of cooperating with the far left on legislation and, most importantly, what this will mean for France’s finances.
What needs to be explained is that the left-wing political party alliance "New Popular Front" was urgently formed by multiple left-wing parties on June 13, including the French Green Party, the Socialist Party, the French Communist Party and the "Unyielding France" party.
“This alliance can be understood as a project company established separately for the purpose of election. If the purpose of the election is achieved, the project company can continue to exist or expand. If the bid is not obtained, it will be disbanded.” w88 casino games login Yongsheng explained.
Among them, what worries all parties is that if the "France Unyielding" party led by Mélenchon leads the next French government, its spending commitments will undermine the stability of France's public finances and trigger a market crisis.
In the worst-case scenario, in which the candidate put forward by the left may not be recognized by the centrists, France will face months or even years of political uncertainty and an unstable government. This in itself is bad news for France and its European partners.
At present, although Mélenchon positions himself as prime minister, other factions in the left-wing party alliance "New Popular Front" are strongly opposed to this idea and are also vying for the position of prime minister.
According to an official at the French presidential palace, government officials will contact moderates in the "New Popular Front" such as the Socialists and Greens, as well as conservative Republicans, to understand their interest in cooperation.
If the above method does not work, Macron can also appoint a non-party person to form a technocratic government, just like the Italian government has done before, but this is not French political tradition at all.
w88 casino games login Yongsheng told China Business News that in his opinion, a French word can be used to describe the relationship between the left-wing political party alliance and Macron, which is a "well-matched marriage." For example, "the extreme left is annoyed when they see Macron, but in order to oppose the extreme right, they can immediately withdraw their candidates for Macron. In the end, France will still have to form a ruling alliance between the center and the left, which is to form a 'marriage based on reasons.'"
In terms of the candidate for prime minister, "You can choose from the Social Democratic Party. For example, Hollande and others are good candidates." He said that in order to comfort Mélenchon, he can finally give him a "position that does not scare the market and allows him to perform well."
On the evening of the 7th, when former Socialist President Hollande was elected as a member of the National Assembly, he stated that he was not a candidate for prime minister, but believed that he could play a role in foreign policy.
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