"Guangming Daily": (Shi Shiwei) Different differences and compromises in the economic recession reflection
(Source: "Guangming Daily 2025-01-16)
In recent years, affected by geopolitical conflicts, inadequate transformation in the local manufacturing industry, and increasing internal and external burdens, it has always been a serious dilemma of the European economy's German economy. Germany ’s local manufacturing industry rarely lay off and closes to factories, high energy prices, high inflation rates, and high inflation rates, and the social and economic situation has more affected every German.
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In November last year, the German Liberal Democratic Party announced that all ministers of the party withdrew from the three -party joint government, which marked the rare cross -standing three -party alliances consisting of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. rupture.
More than a month before the election vote, all parties in the German Federal House have launched the campaign program. Economic policy is undoubtedly the top priority of the German election, and people urgently hope that the new government can lead Germany to the trough.
In recent years, the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic and Russia and Ukraine have given the German economy, and the German economy has declined. At present, the German economy has not returned to the level of 2019. In 2023 and 2024, it has experienced two consecutive years of decline. The economy has declined by 0.3%and 0.2%year -on -year. This has never appeared in Federal Germany in 74 years.
At present, the German political spectrum is fragmented. Polls show that the German party in Germany chooses that the party is expected to obtain 20%of the votes, w88 sports bettingbut no other party is willing to form an alliance with it. Although the newly established Sarah Wagaganicnecht League in 2024 may enter the Federal House of House in this election, the situation is the same as the German selection of the party.
At present, the four parties that can form a joint government have formed two major camps in terms of economic and social policies. The policies of the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party, the policy of the two camps will have a significant impact on the results of the election and the future prospects of the German economy.
Public investment is the key
After the unity of the two Germans in 1990, the economy faced a major transformation challenge, and the unemployment rate was high. European media called the "European sick husband" in 1999.
The cause of high inflation is first of all, including insufficient investment, including public investment (infrastructure, education) and corporate investment (innovation and productivity equipment investment). In recent years, due to the insufficient public investment in Germany, the infrastructure is old and aging, which has seriously affected the international competitiveness of the commercial environment and the enterprise.
At the same time, under the era challenges of population aging and energy transformation, companies also face problems such as high energy costs, shortage of technical workers, and bureaucracy. The current government economic policy is uncertain, further exacerbating the uncertainty of the business planning planning, and seriously weaken the willingness to invest in enterprise investment.
At present, insufficient public investment has been the consensus of all sectors of Germany on the current economic issues, but the expansion of public investment has been constrained by the "debt brake" mechanism. In 2009, in the context of the European debt crisis, the German Federal Council wrote the "debt brakes" mechanism into the constitution: the German federal government shall not bond debt for the state government, and the federal government's new financial deficit must not exceed 0.35%of GDP.
The implementation of the "debt brake" mechanism does ensure that the German government liabilities are at a relatively normal level: the total government debt accounts for about 65%of the GDP, which is slightly higher than 60%of the EU stability and growth. It reached a balance in 2012, and the budget has surpassed w88 online sports bettingin the past 10 years, which has made the German government's expenditure more than other developed countries.
However, the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia in 2020 broke the situation. In 2020 and 2021, the proportion of government budget deficits in 2021 reached 4.28%and 3.53%, respectively, which greatly exceeded the 3%limit stipulated by the EU Stability and Growth Convention, but It is in line with the "debt brakes" mechanism that is temporarily suspended in the state of "special crisis".
Since then, due to the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the German government budget plan in 2022 and 2023 is still in a special crisis. The budget deficit is 2.45%and 2.43%, respectively. None of the conventional government budget included in 2022.
Whether all parties can the differences in the difference
After the election date is determined, major German political parties quickly held a high -profile election program for special party congresses. The Federal Prime Minister candidate of the Alliance Party Merz said that the party's campaign program was the "2030 Aired agenda" and intends to associate it with the "2010 agenda" of former Prime Minister Schroder.
In terms of financial and tax policies, the core claim of the Alliance Party is tax reduction, including the upper limit of the tax exemption of personal income tax (currently 17543 euros), and the lower limit of the revenue rate (42%) from 6,6760 euros to 80,000 Euro; cutting corporate taxes from the current 30%to 25%, canceling the remaining unity and mutual tax assistance; adhere to the principle of "debt brakes" for government budgets; inspire more people to work (referring to the work of overtime and retirees).
In terms of social policy, the Alliance Party promised to reduce social security fees to 40%of hair wages, and replaced the existing "citizenship" with basic guarantee funds. In terms of energy policy, the Alliance Party advocates the development of various new types of energy (including nuclear energy) and reducing electricity tax and power grid fees to ensure power supply and reduce energy prices. More methods of using carbon emissions transactions and carbon taxes to achieve emission reduction, give up abandonment
The Campaign of the Liberal Democratic Party is similar to the Alliance Party. Both parties in the middle and right claim that the means to solve the insufficient w88 mobilepublic investment is to reduce social welfare, rather than allowing the government to bond more, and inspire private investment by reducing the burden on enterprises and eliminating bureaucracy.
The Socialist Party and the Green Party camps in the Central Left. The core of its fiscal and taxation policy is to establish a government -led "German fund" to invest in infrastructure and provide subsidies for private investment. The Green Party's current Minister of Economy of the Federal Government estimates that in order to cope with the challenges of structural reform, this fund will need 300 billion to 700 billion euros, but there is no clear fund for the fund;
In terms of energy policy, they adhere to the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 proposed in the European Union's New Deal, and will vigorously develop renewable energy for this. Vigorously develop green hydrogen energy.
It can be seen that the economic and social policy programs of the two camps are obvious. Judging from the current polls, it is unlikely to win the election alone in any of the two camps.
The fall of the Government of the Tsoles shows that the disputes in the coalition party in the government have caused huge political uncertainty. In the future, after the new US government came to power, the tariff policy for the European Union may not be optimistic about the economic prospects of Germany in 2025.
Looking forward to the future, only the two major parties representing the German intermediate group can achieve a certain degree of compromise in their core policies. After the new government comes to power, there may be a situation of structural reform and a Public investment plan. I saw a ray of dawn in concerns about German economic prospects.
(Author: Shi Shiwei, the director of the China -German Economic and Trade Research Center of the University of Foreign Economic and Trade)
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