(Source: Global Financial Connection, 2025-01-18)
China’s GDP growth will be 5.0% in 2024
The much-anticipated 2024 China economic “report card” is here.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 17 shows that according to preliminary calculations, the GDP in 2024 will be 134.9084 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year at constant prices. Regarding China’s economic performance in 2024, let’s listen to the interpretation of Liu Peizhong, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
China’s economy will show four major highlights in 2024
Liu Peizhong: In 2024, China's economic operation will be generally stable and make progress. The total economic volume will reach 134.9 trillion yuan, exceeding 130 trillion yuan for the first time. China's GDP will grow by 5% in 2024, achieving the full-year target.
The main highlights are reflected in four major aspects. First, new quality productivity continues to grow, and the substitution effect of new kinetic energy continues to increase.
Second, the export performance is outstanding and the export structure is further optimized. At the same time, the development of digital technology has given rise to new growth points in trade, and cross-border e-commerce platforms have rapidly w88 online casinoemerged, becoming a new window for China's exports.
Third, the overall performance of residents’ income and employment is stable. Overall, the service industry will continue to play a role as an employment reservoir in 2024.
Fourth, the implementation of macro policies has been stepped up to promote the recovery of economic prosperity. China's economic growth slowed down in the second and third quarters of 2024, and it once faced greater economic downward pressure.
The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2024 will increase by 5.8% over the previous year
In 2024, the industrial growth rate will run at a high level and become the ballast stone for the growth of the national economy.
Data shows that in 2024, the added value of industries above designated size will increase by 5.8% compared with the previous year. Divided into three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 3.1%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.1%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 5.3%.
Exports vigorously drive manufacturing
Wang Qing: The industrial added value in December 2024 increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly accelerated by 0.8 percentage points compared with last month. The main driving force was the rapid growth of manufacturing added value, which reached 7.4%, an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points.
Looking at the whole year, the cumulative industrial production growth rate in 2024 will be 5.8%, 1.2 percentage points faster than in 2023. What deserves more attention is that the growth rate is significantly faster than the overall GDP growth rate of 5.0%.
In industrial production in 2024, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry will be 7.7%, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing will be 8.9%. The growth rate is much higher than that of the overall industrial production and manufacturing industry, which reflects the specific effects of supporting technological innovation and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.
Domestic demand may support the manufacturing industry next year
Wang Qing: Looking forward, the external economic w88 mobileand trade environment will be significantly more variable in 2025, and the role of exports in driving domestic industrial production and manufacturing may be significantly weakened. However, China has currently introduced policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects, that is, to expand domestic consumption and investment demand.
We judge that the industrial growth rate in 2025 will be around 4.6%, which may be slightly lower than the overall economic growth rate. At the beginning of 2025, there will be a strong export effect from January to February, and domestic consumer demand will also expand. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial production will reach about 5.0% in the first two months of the year.
China’s import and export of goods trade will grow by 5% in 2024
China has also delivered impressive results in the field of foreign trade. According to customs statistics, China's total import and export value of goods trade will reach 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, setting a record high.
In 2024, China’s imports and exports to more than 160 countries and regions achieved growth. Especially for countries jointly building the “Belt and Road”, imports and exports increased by 6.4%, accounting for 50.3% of the total import and export value.
How to summarize the outstanding performance of China’s foreign trade growth in 2024? With the optimization of China's foreign trade structure and the deepening of regional cooperation, what changes will occur in the driving force of foreign trade growth in the next few years?
China’s foreign trade performance in 2024 exceeds expectations
Tu Xinquan: China’s foreign trade performance in 2024 is quite impressive, exceeding previous expectations. This is mainly due to two factors.
From the supply side, China's competitiveness continues to rise, automobile exports show a trend of rapid growth, and China's proportion in the world trade pattern is steadily increasing. What is particularly critical is that "to make iron, you need to be strong yourself." Chinese products have shown strong competitiveness in terms of quality and price.
In addition, the external demand market will pick w88 online casino bettingup in 2024. The overall economic situation of major economies such as Europe and the United States as well as other countries is more optimistic than expected, at least better than previous forecasts, thus allowing external demand to maintain a stable growth trend. The speed is not rapid.
It is worth mentioning that my country’s trade relations with developing countries such as the “Belt and Road” co-building countries, ASEAN, RCEP partner countries, and the Global South are increasingly close. This change is closely related to the greater economic growth potential contained in these countries and regions, as well as the more complementary trade structure between my country and our country. This is a very important change.
Foreign trade will face more intense competition in the future

Tu Xinquan: Looking forward to the future development direction, the importance of markets in developing countries will become increasingly prominent. From an economic perspective, the complementarity between the markets of developing countries and my country continues to increase, which can give full play to my country's industrial advantages.
For developed market markets, the main issue currently faced is the disruption caused by geopolitical tensions. Trump is about to take office, and there are many uncertainties about his policy direction.
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