(Source: Global Financial Connection, 2025-01-18)
China’s GDP growth will be 5.0% in 2024
The much-anticipated 2024 China economic “report card” is here.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 17 shows that preliminary calculations show that the GDP in 2024 will be 134.9084 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year at constant prices. Regarding China’s economic performance in 2024, let’s listen to the interpretation of Liu Peizhong, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
China’s economy will show four major highlights in 2024
Liu Peizhong: In 2024, China's economic operation will be generally stable and make progress. The total economic volume will reach 134.9 trillion yuan, exceeding 130 trillion yuan for the first time. China's GDP will grow by 5% in 2024, achieving the full-year target. Looking at the stages, the economic growth rates in the first, second, third and fourth quarters were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6% and 5.4% respectively, and the economic growth rate throughout the year showed a "V" shape.
The main highlights are reflected in four major aspects. First, new quality productivity continues to grow, and the substitution effect of new kinetic energy continues to increase. Currently, China's economy is in an important stage of transformation and upgrading. All regions are developing new productive forces in accordance with local conditions, cultivating new driving forces, promoting the upgrading of traditional driving forces, and improving the economic development structure and new driving forces.
Second, the export performance is outstanding and the export structure is further optimized. At the same time, the development of digital technology has given rise to new growth points in w88, and cross-border e-commerce platforms have rapidly emerged, becoming a new window for China's exports. In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume will be 2.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. In addition, China's green transformation has accelerated, and the comparative advantages of green products have been transformed into w88 momentum. In 2024, China's wind power exports increased by 71.9%, and exports of photovoltaic products exceeded 200 billion yuan for four consecutive years, both hitting record highs.
Third, the overall performance of residents’ income and employment is stable. Overall, the service industry will continue to play its role as an employment reservoir in 2024. With the development of some new business forms, new models, and new industries, the driving force for employment is increasing, playing an important role in stabilizing employment. In 2024, the national average urban surveyed unemployment rate will be 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year; the national per capita disposable income of residents will increase by 5.3% in nominal terms compared with the previous year, and the real increase after deducting price factors will be 5.1%. Among them, the nominal income growth rate of rural residents is faster than that of urban residents.
Fourth, the implementation of macro policies has been stepped up to promote the recovery of economic prosperity. China's economic growth slowed down in the second and third quarters of 2024, and it once faced greater economic downward pressure. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on September 26 deployed a package of incremental policies, which played an important role in boosting confidence, stimulating market vitality, and promoting economic recovery. In the fourth quarter of 2024, year-on-year GDP growth accelerated significantly compared with the third quarter. Positive changes have occurred in many areas, such as the significant increase in the growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size, the added value of the service industry, and total retail sales of consumer goods, which reflects the improvement in production in various industries and residents' demand.
The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2024 will increase by 5.8% over the previous year
In 2024, the industrial growth rate will run at a high level and become the ballast stone for the growth of the national economy.
Data shows that in 2024, the added value of industries above designated size will increase by 5.8% compared with the previous year. Divided into three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 3.1%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.1%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 5.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.9%. The growth rates were 1.9 and 3.1 percentage points faster than those of the industries above designated size respectively. How to interpret China’s industrial growth resilience in 2024 and what trends does it reflect? Let’s connect with Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng.
Exports vigorously drive manufacturing
Wang Qing: The industrial added value in December 2024 increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly accelerated by 0.8 percentage points compared with last month. The main driving force was the rapid growth of manufacturing added value, which reached 7.4%, an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points. Behind the scenes, accompanied by the introduction of a package of incremental policies, market confidence and market demand have recovered, driving corporate production to increase. The production index in China's official manufacturing PMI index in December has been in the expansion range for three consecutive months. In addition, exports during this period were relatively strong, which also had a relatively strong pulling effect on domestic manufacturing production.
Looking at the whole year, the cumulative industrial production growth rate in 2024 will be 5.8%, 1.2 percentage points faster than in 2023. What deserves more attention is that the growth rate is significantly faster than the overall GDP growth rate of 5.0%. Industrial production will be strong in 2024. In addition to the low base of the previous year, the main reason is that the export growth rate will turn from negative to positive in 2024, a substantial acceleration of 10.6 percentage points, which will form a strong stimulating effect on domestic manufacturing production.
In industrial production in 2024, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry will be 7.7%, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing will be 8.9%. The growth rate is much higher than that of the overall industrial production and manufacturing industry, which reflects the specific effects of supporting technological innovation and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In the first three quarters of 2024, policies support technological innovation and manufacturing development. The scale of tax cuts, fee reductions and tax rebates is as high as 2,086.8 billion yuan, and the finance department provides interest discounts for equipment updates.
Domestic demand may support the manufacturing industry next year
Wang Qing: Looking forward, the external economic and w88 environment will be significantly more variable in 2025, and the role of exports in driving domestic industrial production and manufacturing may be significantly weakened. However, China has currently introduced policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects, that is, to expand domestic consumption and investment demand. Domestic demand may significantly support industrial production and manufacturing.
We judge that the industrial growth rate in 2025 will be around 4.6%, which may be slightly lower than the overall economic growth rate. At the beginning of 2025, there will be a strong export effect from January to February, and domestic consumer demand will also expand. It is expected that the growth rate of industrial production will reach about 5.0% in the first two months of the year.
China’s import and export of goods w88 will grow by 5% in 2024
China has also delivered impressive results in the field of foreign w88. According to customs statistics, China's total import and export value of goods w88 will reach 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, setting a record high.
In 2024, China’s imports and exports to more than 160 countries and regions achieved growth. Especially for countries jointly building the “Belt and Road”, imports and exports increased by 6.4%, accounting for 50.3% of the total import and export value. In terms of regional cooperation, my country's imports and exports with ASEAN have increased for nine consecutive years, and China has been each other's largest trading partner for five consecutive years; imports and exports with other BRICS member countries and partner countries increased by 5.5%; in addition, China's imports and exports with Latin America, Africa, five Central Asian countries, and Central and Eastern Europe increased by 7.2%, 6.1%, 7.2%, and 7.5% respectively. These markets contribute nearly 60% to China's foreign w88 market and have become an important force in promoting China's foreign w88 growth. During the same period, my country's w88 with the EU and the United States also grew very steadily, with imports and exports increasing by 1.6% and 4.9% respectively year-on-year.
How to summarize the outstanding performance of China’s foreign w88 growth in 2024? With the optimization of China's foreign w88 structure and the deepening of regional cooperation, what changes will occur in the driving force of foreign w88 growth in the next few years? Tu Xinquan, Dean of the WTO Research Institute at the w88 casino, brings us his analysis.
China’s foreign w88 performance in 2024 exceeds expectations
Tu Xinquan: China’s foreign w88 performance in 2024 is quite impressive, exceeding previous expectations. This is mainly due to two factors.
From the supply side, China's competitiveness continues to rise, automobile exports show a trend of rapid growth, and China's proportion in the world w88 pattern is steadily increasing. What is particularly critical is that "to make iron, you need to be strong yourself." Chinese products have shown strong competitiveness in terms of quality and price. At the same time, China's product structure continues to be optimized and upgraded, and the proportion of high value-added products is increasing. Therefore, it is important not only from the perspective of total w88 volume, but also from the perspective of value added, which is expected to grow faster.
In addition, the external demand market will pick up in 2024. The overall economic situation of major economies such as Europe, the United States, and other countries is more optimistic than expected, at least better than previous forecasts, which has allowed external demand to maintain a stable growth trend, although the growth rate is not rapid.
It is worth mentioning that my country’s w88 relations with developing countries such as the “Belt and Road” co-building countries, ASEAN, RCEP partner countries, and the Global South are increasingly close. This change is closely related to the greater economic growth potential contained in these countries and regions, as well as the more complementary w88 structure between my country and our country. This is a very important change.
Foreign w88 will face more intense competition in the future
Tu Xinquan: Looking forward to the future development direction, the importance of markets in developing countries will become increasingly prominent. From an economic perspective, the complementarity between the markets of developing countries and my country continues to increase, which can give full play to my country's industrial advantages. In the political field, my country's relations with developing countries have become increasingly closer, the level of mutual trust has continued to increase, and the policy environment has become more stable.
For developed market markets, the main issue currently is the disruption caused by geopolitical tensions. Trump is about to take office, and there are many uncertainties about his policy direction. Europe is also facing a series of problems, and these factors together constitute the risks and challenges faced by our country. Judging from the overall situation of the global economy, although the performance in 2024 is acceptable, according to the predictions of the IMF and the World Bank, the future growth trend of the global economy is not optimistic, and the overall growth trend is relatively flat. This growth trend will have a certain adverse impact on foreign w88, and it also means that the market competition faced by our country will become more intense.
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