(Source: "Petroleum Business Daily" 2025-10-13)
Dong Xiucheng
Recently, the volatility of the global energy market has increased, and the uncertainty of international oil prices has increased. As the world's most important energy production and consumption area, violent fluctuations in oil prices not only affect the economic security of various countries, but also pose new challenges to the global political landscape and energy security.
The global economic recovery has driven growth in energy demand and pushed up oil prices. However, uncertainty on the oil supply side is increasing. Major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran have not been able to fully release their production due to various factors. Although new energy technology is developing rapidly, it is still difficult to completely replace traditional energy in the short term. In this context, the "OPEC+" decision to increase production will have a direct impact on global oil supply and demand, which will in turn affect the fluctuation of crude oil prices.
In addition, the global oil market is also facing many uncertain factors, such as the economic recovery process is full of uncertainty due to tariff wars, geopolitical risks, energy transition leading to oil substitution, changes in inventory levels, consumer preferences and other factors, all of which have an impact on crude oil supply, demand and price levels. Therefore, when considering the impact of supply and demand on crude oil prices, it is necessary to examine the changing trends of the entire energy market from a higher perspective.
The tension in the Kurdish region of Iraq has eased, playing a "catalyst" role in the fluctuation of international oil prices. The Kurdish region is rich in oil resources, but oil exports have been at a standstill due to political disputes and ethnic conflicts. Recently, with the gradual stabilization of the political situation in Iraq and the reconciliation of various forces, the region's oil exports have been able to resume, triggering a decline in international oil prices.
The geopolitical situation is becoming increasingly complex, posing multiple impacts to the global oil market. The turmoil in the Middle East is an important factor affecting the global energy market. Recently, the conflict between Israel and Palestine has escalated, and the regional security situation has deteriorated sharply; domestic political issues in the United States, such as government shutdowns, have affected the formulation and implementation of energy-related policies; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and Europe will be forced to increase oil imports from other regions, which may have a certain impact on the global oil market.
The uncertainty of global economic trends has made the development of the energy market more complex and volatile. With the COVID-19 epidemic under effective control and the introduction of stimulus policies by various countries, there are obvious signs of global economic recovery, but unstable factors still exist. The U.S. economy is affected by tariff policies, and the future development trend remains to be seen; although China's economic development is relatively stable, its oil consumption demand is close to saturation; the economic recovery of Europe and Japan is slow, and the growth of oil demand is limited; in other regions, due to inflation and other issues, economic growth is weak, and energy demand is also affected.
The future evolution of the international oil market mainly depends on factors such as global economic recovery, changes in the economic climate of major economies, geopolitical game situations, the speed of global energy transformation, and the momentum of "OPEC+" production increase. Based on the above analysis, changes in international oil prices will be full of uncertainties, but there is a high probability that they will show a downward trend.
In this context, governments and enterprises of various countries need to pay close attention to international market dynamics, strengthen cooperation and coordination, realize the rational allocation and effective utilization of energy resources, and then promote the steady development of the global economy. At the same time, we should see the huge potential of new energy technology in responding to the global energy crisis, increase investment in the research and development and application of new energy technology, and promote the development of the new energy industry.
Attachment: Original link
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LYWajp7Xy_YDpSaKWMd3kg
